NFL Week 8 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Colts, Chargers, 49ers, More Spreads & Over/Unders

NFL betting analyst Raheem Palmer breaks down his favorite Week 8 bets, and he'll be picking five NFL sides each week of the season for DraftKings' Pro Football Millionaire Pick'Em contest. Note that the spreads for this contest lock on Wednesdays, so some will be stale by the time you read this and thus not readily available outside of the contest. But you can check real-time NFL odds here.

Here were the five sides for this week's entry:

1. Indianapolis Colts +1.5: 1 p.m. ET
2. Carolina Panthers +2.5: 1 p.m. ET
3. Los Angeles Chargers -5.5: 4:25 p.m. ET
4. Washington Football Team +2.5: 4:25 p.m. ET
5. Dallas Cowboys – 2.5: 8:20 p.m. ET
6. San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (Replacement Pick): 1 p.m. ET

Week 8 NFL Pick'Em Picks

1. Indianapolis Colts +1.5

The TennesseeTitans are coming off two of their biggest wins of the season against the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, and this feels like a great spot to sell high on this team. The Titans held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to just three points, but I believe that said more about the Chiefs than it said about the Titans, as this a defensive unit that is still 22nd in Defensive Efficiency and 21st in EPA/play.

Carson Wentz has looked great since getting acclimated in Frank Reich's offense. After missing preseason with an ankle injury and COVID-19, Wentz appeared to be playing on the same level that got him traded out of Philadelphia, but over the past four weeks, he's third in EPA + CPOE Composite, with only Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford ranking higher.

This also includes a Sunday night game against the San Francisco 49ers in the rain where he completed 17-of-26 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns, finding a way to help his team win an ugly game. With the Titans still thin at cornerback, I'm expecting a solid game through the air from Wentz.

Now the Colts are back at home in their dome, and fortunately for Wentz, he doesn't have to do it by himself as Jonathan Taylor should run all over a Titans defense that is 25th in EPA/play and 29th in Rushing Success Rate. The already-banged-up Titans defense could be in even more trouble, as safety Amani Hooker and outside linebacker Bud Dupree missed practice this week due to injuries.

Overall, this feels like a great spot for the Colts who can move within one game of the Titans with a win on Sunday.

2. Carolina Panthers +2.5

This feels like a great spot to sell high on the Atlanta Falcons who have won three out of their last four games against the New YorkGiants, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. These also happen to be defenses that rank 23rd, 27th and 28th, respectively, in EPA/play. These are teams that don't generate an elite pass rush either, and that's certainly a weak spot for a Falcons offensive line which is 24th in ESPN's pass block win rate. This week it will be dealing with a Panthers defense that is fourth in Pass Block Win Rate.

Defensively is where there's real issues for the Falcons, as they're 30th in scoring defense (29.3), 25th in EPA/play and 31st in Success Rate. They're also just 31st in Dropback Success Rate and are currently dealing with injuries to cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Fabian Moreau as well as safety Erik Harris who all left Sunday's game against the Dolphins with injuries. With Isaiah Oliver already out for the season, this already struggling secondary is in for a world of trouble, and this feels like the perfect get-right spot for Sam Darnold and the Panthers against a Falcons team with no pass rush.

This game fits one of the most profitable trends for this season as short underdogs of three or fewer points are 12-5 (70.5%) this season.

3. Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

I don't typically buy into revenge spots, but these two teams played last season during Justin Herbert's rookie season with the New England Patriots pitching a shutout in a game they won 45-0. We're unlikely to see a similar result this year with a new coach in Brandon Staley and an overall better Chargers team.

Looking at this Patriots team, it feels like it's being overvalued throughout the market with two wins over the New York Jets and a win over the Houston Texans. Interestingly enough, the Patriots have only played two road games this season, and yet they are +7 in turnovers against the Jets alone and -7 against every other opponent on their schedule. As a whole, the Patriots have played the 22nd-ranked schedule of opposing defenses this year.

The Patriots face a tougher task against a Chargers team that welcomes the return of linebacker Drue Tranquill, defensive tackle Justin Jones and safety Nasir Adderley. Tranquill is the ninth-ranked linebacker according to Pro Football Focus, and Jones should be big in slowing down the run which the Chargers have struggled with.

However, the Patriots haven't been particularly great at running the ball. Overall, this Patriots offense is truly overrated, ranking 15th in Offensive Efficiency, 14th in the rushing efficiency and 18th in passing efficiency, and they'll need to match point for point against Herbert and this Chargers offense that is looking to rebound from a 34-6 loss to the Ravens.

The Chargers should be able to find some success through the air in this matchup as we've seen as this is not the same Patriots defense of last season with Stephon Gilmore on the team and the Patriots dealing with banged-up corners Devin McCourty and Shaun Wade. Nevertheless, a big reason for my optimism in the Chargers this week has to do with Staley speaking on how this team was too conservative on early downs which led to this team being over-reliant on finding success on third and fourth down.

With the Chargers coming off a bye week, I'm confident Staley can find ways to correct their early-down struggles, and if that's the case, the gap between these two teams is much wider than the current market price. I'll back the Chargers at -5.5

4. Washington Football Team +2.5

Similar to the Panthers, this fits a profitable trend with short underdogs of three or fewer points going 12-5 (70.5%) this season. Last week the Washington Football Team had perhaps the most misleading box score you'll ever see in an NFL game. They somehow had scoreless drives that ended at the Green Bay 23, 27, 1, 3 and 12. They out-gained the Packers in yards, passing yards, rushing yards, first downs, yards per play and lost the game by going 0-4 in the red zone with two turnovers.

Nonetheless, this week, I expect the Washington Football Team to have similar success offensively against a Denver Broncos defense that is absolutely decimated by injuries. With the Broncos essentially starting linebackers off the practice squad, D’Ernest Johnson rushed for 146 yards last Thursday, so I'm expecting Antonio Gibson to have a big day.

Since Denver's wins over the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, the Broncos have fallen off a cliff defensively. Dating back to Week 4, the Broncos are 29th in EPA/play, 26th in Success Rate, 24th in Dropback Success Rate and 23rd in Rushing Success Rate. Despite defense being their calling card under head coach Vic Fangio, this defense is every bit as bad as their divisional rival Kansas City Chiefs over the past four weeks. Taylor Heinicke's ability to extend plays could cause real problems for this Broncos team.

Things aren't much better offensively for the Broncos offense which has watched Teddy Bridgewater struggle at quarterback. This offense is scoring just 16 points per game over the last four games. Although it will welcome the return of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy who hasn't played since suffering an ankle injury in Week 1, I'm not sure it will be enough. My model makes this game a PK, so I see value on the Washington Football Team.

5. Dallas Cowboys – 2.5

Although my inclination going forward is to fade the Cowboys, as they’re 6-0 against the spread given that this is an efficient market and we should eventually see some correction, this is not the spot to do so.

To put it bluntly, these are two teams in completely different classes. Led by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are first in scoring offense (34.2 ppg), second in Success Rate (53.1%) and fifth in EPA/play.

No one has been able to slow down this Cowboys offense this season, and I don’t see that changing against a Vikings team that is 28th in Defensive Rushing efficiency, given the two-back combination of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

The Vikings are giving up 4.8 yards per carry, fourth worst among NFL teams, so look for big days from Elliott and Pollard which should open things up for Prescott through the air. This is a defense that struggled to slow down the Lions and Panthers to close out games, and I struggle to see how that changes here.

Although the Vikings have the weapons in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to give the Cowboys defense problems, that hasn’t always translated to dominant performances given the conservative nature of Mike Zimmer. A hidden edge in this matchup belongs to the Cowboys, as Mike McCarthy is willing to go for it on fourth downs while Zimmer is likely to punt the ball back to the Cowboys and allow his defense to win the game. The last thing you want to do is punt the ball back to this Cowboys offense.

I’ll back the Cowboys at -2.5 in a game where they are undervalued on the point spread.

Note: Dak Prescott is out for Sunday's game with a calf injury, so we're going with a replacement pick to avoid getting the best of it.

Replacement Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5

There were a ton of people on the San Francisco 49ers last week in what looked like a buy-low spot against the Indianapolis Colts. After losing four straight games to the Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals and Colts, this feels like the better spot to buy low on this team which had a preseason win total of 10.5 games.

After facing Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and the resurgent Carson Wentz, they now face off against Justin Fields and a Bears offense that is 30th in EPA/play and 25th in Success Rate (42.9%), while scoring just 14.4 points per game. The only offenses that have been worse are the Jets and Texans.

Nevertheless, the Bears are highly dependent on their defense but will be missing Khalil Mack and dealing with a banged-up Akiem Hicks so we're unlikely to see the same pass rush from this team this week. Overall, I think the 49ers are the better team, and this feels like a great spot to back them as my replacement pick.

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The Rest of the Betting Card

Steelers/Browns 1H Under 21 (-115 at Caesars)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are not an offense that would put fear in anyone as they're scoring just 19.5 points per game, ranking 26th in EPA/play and 31st in Success Rate, with just 38.5% percent of plays grading out as successful. Ben Roethlisberger is on his last legs as a quarterback in this league, ranking 26th in EPA/play and 31st in Success Rate with a completion percentage of 65.7, 26th among NFL Quarterbacks.

This is a struggling offensive line that ranks 30th in ESPN's pass rush block rate and 27th in run block win rate. Despite drafting Najee Harris out of Alabama last offseason, he's done little to improve this run game behind a struggling offensive line. The Steelers are 29th in Rushing Success Rate (31.8%) and are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry — 28th among NFL teams.

In a division game against the Browns, they'll be relying on their defense that ranks ninth in Football Outsiders DVOA to help win this game. Facing a banged-up Cleveland Browns offense, they'll certainly be competitive. With the Steelers ranking 20th in pace per play and the Browns ranking 30th, this feels like a low-scoring game. I like to isolate the first halves of these games, as the second half can often take on a life of it's own as teams chase points. Let's play the 1H under 21. If Baker Mayfield is ruled in, we could see this number go up, but I still like it at any number over 21.

Washington Football Team/Denver Broncos Over at 44

I broke down why I like the Washington Football Team in my DraftKings Pick Em' Contest, but when looking at this total, it's clear this is way too low for what we've seen from these two teams this year as they might be two of the most overrated defenses in football.

As I've stated previously, this Broncos defense has really fallen off a cliff. Since Week 4, the Broncos are 29th in EPA/play, 26th in Success Rate, 24th in Dropback Success Rate and 23rd in Rushing Success Rate. With the injuries at linebacker, Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team should have no problems scoring here. If you get any regression from Washington's redzone offense after what we saw last week, they should put up a decent offensive performance.

Washington's defense has been a complete letdown this season, ranking dead last in opponent third down conversion percentage (56.86%) and opponent points per game (30.0). While I do favor the Washington Football Team's offense in this matchup, I think the Broncos will have opportunities to score as well, especially with the return of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. I'll play the over 44

Two Team 6-point Teaser: Carolina Panthers +9/Washington Football Team +9

See Carolina Panthers and Washington Football Team Explanations.