Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

Is this the best Sunday morning game of the season? It might not have looked that way before the season, but this is suddenly a matchup of teams positioned to make the playoffs, with two of the more exciting offenses in football. The Jaguars are back in London again, their home away from home. Jacksonville has played far more games in England than any other NFL team, and some may argue that gives the Jaguars something of a home field advantage. Are we sure about that? Liam Coen is a first-year head coach and has the youngest, most inexperienced staff in the league, so this could be a big adjustment. Sean McVay has played out of the country before and should have his team ready, and he'll also be ready for Coen, a former longtime Rams assistant. Usually in these neutral games, you just want the better team. And right now, the Rams are the better team. The Rams enter the weekend fringe top five in my power ratings, while Jacksonville is still around league average. The DVOA metrics back that up. The Rams rank top five by DVOA on both offense and defense, while the Jaguars are close to average at all three facets of the game. Their offense has been fun but inconsistent, and the offensive line has faltered in recent weeks and could have its hands full with this young Rams defensive front. Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 10 times in just the last two weeks, a real red flag for a quarterback who usually doesn't struggle in that area. The big name missing in this one is Puka Nacua. Nacua has been the best receiver in the league this season, and he's a real loss to the Rams, but it matters that LA knew all week that it wouldn't have Nacua. McVay builds entire game plans around getting the ball to Nacua, so losing him midgame like last week can be a tough adjustment. Now McVay has had an entire week to build a different game plan to face the Jaguars, a team that plays a ton of two-high safety — and that means that was probably always going to set up as a better game for field-stretchers like Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee. Adams has been the clear No. 2 in Los Angeles with Nacua in the OPOY conversation, but this looks like it could be his breakout game in a Rams uniform, and I'm looking to invest heavily in Adams overs. Just look at what opposing star WRs have done against Jacksonville this season. Ja'Marr Chase caught 14 balls for 165 yards and a score. Nico Collins had eight receptions for 104 and a TD. Last week, the Jaguars traded for CB Greg Newsome and he got torched by Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 162 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. These receivers are much closer to Davante Adams in profile than Puka Nacua, not attacking underneath with YAC but beating the Jaguars over the top for big plays down the field. But you won't have to tell Davante that. He had his best game since leaving Green Bay last season against these Jaguars: nine catches for 198 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Could this be a huge game for Adams? He's always a touchdown threat in the red zone so play an Anytime Touchdown at +100 (bet365). Adams has a touchdown in half his Rams games already and in 14 of his last 27 games, over half. He has 24 career games with multiple scores, so place a portion of your TD wager on 2+ TDs at +650 (bet365). Adams isn't always a huge yardage guy, but when he hits, he can put up some monster lines. I'm forgoing his traditional yardage overs and playing some of the outliers in hope of a big game. A hundred receiving yards and a TD is +490 at bet365, a reasonable outcome for the top WR with Puka Nacua out. Think he can match last year's performance or what Chase and JSN did to this defense? You can bet 150+ yards at +1000, or go for broke with a little nibble on 150 yards and a pair of TDs at +8150 (bet365). I like the Anytime TD bet best along with the 100/1 bet, but I'm touching every one of those so split up your bet how you like. The Rams have the better team, the more reliable offense, the better defense, and the best playmaker on the field in Davante Adams. I like the Rams, even with Nacua out. This line has sat right at Rams -3 all week long, the most important key number. There's still a chance it could move a touch toward Jacksonville before kickoff with Nacua out and the perceived home-field advantage if you want to risk it and wait for Rams -2.5, but it could go the other way and lose the key too. I'll bet now at Rams -3 and live with the result — and hope for a huge Davante Adams day in blue and yellow.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Etienne is averaging 14.8 carries per game, but that’s been in near-perfect conditions. He’s been the clear lead back, the Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays per game, and they’ve only trailed 12% of the time (2nd lowest in the league). This week they’re 3-point underdogs to the Rams. That doesn’t mean they can’t lead/win here and ETN clear this prop, but historically 3-point dogs trail at a +33% higher rate than he’s seen so far. That should lead to fewer rush attempts overall. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten has been banged up but could start eating into ETN’s workload as he gets healthier. And in short yardage, ETN only has 38% of the team’s rush attempts.. Jacksonville has been pass-heavy on 2nd-and-short and often uses Lawrence or even WR runs instead of giving ETN as many of the cheap carries other lead backs get. I project him closer to 13.8 carries with around a 60% chance to stay under 14.5.

As discussed on Buckets, firing on a few Davante props with Puka out

As discussed on Buckets, firing on a few Davante props with Puka out

As discussed on Buckets, firing on a few Davante props with Puka out

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