As is tradition every July 4th, a massive crowd will gather on Coney Island to witness the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. The competition kicks off at 11 a.m. ET at the iconic corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues, where this event has reportedly been held since 1916, according to the Major League Eating archives.
But this year’s edition carries extra weight: 16-time champion Joey Chestnut is making his return after being banned in 2024 for signing a sponsorship deal with a rival brand. Now, he’s back and hungry to reclaim his crown by dethroning last year’s champion, Patrick Bertoletti.
Let’s take a look at Kalshi’s markets for who might come out on top in 2025 — and how many hot dogs might be devoured.
2025 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Winner Odds
Chestnut’s return instantly makes him the heavy favorite. He currently holds a 92% chance of winning, a figure that has remained steady since this market opened.
With “Jaws” back in the field, the 2024 champion — Patrick Bertoletti — has slipped into a distant second place with just 7% odds. Bertoletti took the title last year with 58 hot dogs and buns eaten in 10 minutes — well below the totals Chestnut posted in 15 of his 16 championship wins.
Other notable names in the field include Geoffrey Esper (3% chance) and James Webb (2%), both considered long shots.
On the women’s side, there isn’t an active market in Kalshi, but all eyes are on reigning champion and 10-time winner Miki Sudo. She holds the women’s world record with 51 hot dogs consumed in 10 minutes — a mark she set during last year’s contest.
2025 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dogs Eaten Odds
As for how many hot dogs will be consumed in the men’s competition, the market suggests a 31% chance the total will exceed 75. If that happens, we could see a new world record, topping Chestnut’s current mark of 76 set in 2021.
There’s even a 10% chance the total goes over 80, and a 4% probability that 85 or more hot dogs get eaten. On the more conservative side, there’s an 66% chance the total surpasses 70, and 86% for it going over 65.
The lowest winning totals over the past 15 years were Bertoletti’s 58 last year and Chestnut’s 54 in 2010 — both reminders that anything can happen on the big stage.
