Venezuela’s ousted president, Nicolas Maduro, is in United States custody following a powerful military operation that led to his capture in Caracas. Maduro, along with his wife, Cilia Flores, is accused of drug trafficking, and both are set to be tried in New York.
While videos and photos from the moment of his arrest and his transfer early Saturday morning have already circulated, speculation is now focused on when Maduro’s official mug shot will be released.
Polymarket, a marketplace that blends traditional financial mechanisms with cutting-edge prediction systems, allows users to predict this. So, let's take a look at some of those predictions and try to figure out when the mugshot will be released.
Maduro Mugshot Release Date Odds
Odds are via Polymarket and update every hour.
The odds of the official mug shot being released on January 5 climbed to 39% on Polymarket, coinciding with the transfer of Maduro and his wife for their first court appearance before a judge. However, those odds quickly fell to just 12% as hours passed without an official release, fueling concerns that the deadline for same-day publication may be too tight.
Still, the possibility of the mug shot being released that date remains alive, largely due to the widespread circulation of images from Maduro’s capture over the past several hours. Former President Donald Trump himself posted the first image of Maduro in custody on Truth Social, showing him during a transfer from the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima.
As the chances of a same-day release declined, the market shifted toward the next available date. January 9 has emerged as the new favorite, with a 33% probability.
Mug shots and fingerprinting are part of standard arrest procedures, although federal policy generally restricts the public release of images of federal defendants.
That said, there have been notable exceptions. One such case was former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega, whose mug shot was released on January 4, 1990 — just one day after he surrendered.
