ALCS Game 3 MLB Player Props, Picks: Eduardo Rodriguez’s Strikeout Total In Play In Astros vs. Red Sox (October 18)
Getty Images. Pictured: Eduard Rodriguez
- The Red Sox are favored to beat the Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS tonight at Fenway Park.
- Boston starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez's strikeout prop has bet set at a suspiciously low 3.5.
- Continue reading for a breakdown of Rodriguez and whether you should bet the over or under in tonight's game.
What a wild weekend of baseball, including a couple of walk-off wins for the Braves and a couple of grand slams for the Red Sox.
Not much pops out to me in the prop market today, but our Action Labs Player Props tool loves tonight’s starting pitcher for Boston.
The Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and Eduardo Rodriguez’s over is a top-rated play.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Red Sox vs. Astros||Red Sox (-115)|
|Time||8:08 p.m. ET|
There are two concerns with E-Rod’s strikeout total tonight. First, he’s been incredibly inconsistent this season. And second, the Astros are the most disciplined lineup in the league.
However, Rodriguez has turned into a true three-outcome pitcher this season. He’s posted a career-high strikeout rate (10.56 K/9), a career-low walk rate (2.68 BB/9) and one of the lowest home run rates of his career (1.08 HR/9).
Rodriguez has gotten very unlucky this season, combining a super-low FIP with a super-high BABIP. So, Rodriguez has been a huge positive regression candidate all season, and he started to see some of that toward the end of the season.
But his run-suppression issues haven’t affected his strikeout ability. Rodriguez has struck out four or more batters in a whopping 27 of his 33 starts this season, an 82% hit rate that implies-450 odds to the over.
That includes both starts against these Astros this season, where he notched nine punchouts in just 9 1/3 innings facing Houston.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Rodriguez projected for 6.6 strikeouts today, giving us a more than 30% edge on the current line being offered at DraftKings.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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