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R.Blanco u17.5 Outs+126
LAD
@
HOU
1u
07/27 11:10 PM
Blanco has been really good this season - but even so, he’s under in 5/L10. On paper, this should be a brutal spot for him. The Dodgers are mashing righties: L3 weeks - 134 wRC+, .824 OPS, .216 ISO.
In terms of wRAA, the Dodgers are the #1 team against both the slider and changeup, and 11th vs the 4-seamer - Blanco throws the three to put away batters almost equally.
Plus, Blanco is 140th of 169 in zone% (for pitchers with 50+ IP). Dodgers have the third lowest chase rate, and the third highest pitches per PA.
Plus, Framber just went 6.1 IP after an off day - bullpen should be fresh.
2-WAY PARLAY+145
1u
Stroman is over this line in 16/20 - incl 9/10 on the road (and 4 at Fenway a few weeks ago). The Red Sox are going to load the lineup with 6-7 lefties to take advantage of Stroman’s worse overall split - and his walk rate jumps to 11.4% on that side.
Anderson is under in 7/L10 starts. The A’s, quietly have been raking against lefties over the L2 months: leading baseball with a 163 wRC+ and .928 OPS. Included in that is a 10.6% walk rate. Anderson has a zone% in the bottom 29th percentile amongst starters (OAK drew 5 walks against him a few weeks ago, and held him to five innings). Should be able to drive up his pitch count.
M.Stroman o1.5 BB-179
NYY
@
BOS
07/27 11:15 PM
T.Anderson u18.5 Outs-174
OAK
@
LAA
07/28 1:38 AM
S.Gray o5.5 Ks-125
WSH
10
8
STL
1u
FINAL - 10 7/27
Gray over 5.5 Ks
- [ ] 2.14 ERA at home - 31% K%
- [ ] Since being fully built up, over in 8/9 home starts, and 16/18 overall
- [ ] Nats with an above average K% the L30 days vs righties: 23%, and hitting below average with a .679 OPS
Pending
Gavin Williams (CLE) under 5.5 strikeouts-120
1.2u
Under in each start - only 14 Ks in 18 IP. Tweaked his pitch mix to include a cutter, more curveballs and less sliders - and the result has been less swinging strikes (8.2% this year vs 16.4% last year). Already faced the Tigers - only a 24.7% CSW%. I like the familiarity to play in the tigers favor today.
Texas Rangers o2.5 runs F7 team total-120
1.2u
Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-prop-pick-tonight-bet-rangers-vs-blue-jays-friday-july-26
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 16-16-0 | 50% | -1.81u |
| Last 30 Days | 75-61-1 | 55% | 8.61u |
| All Time | 2300-2077-38 | 52% | 45.29u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 344-266-1 | 56% | 54.49u |
| NCAAB | 336-245-4 | 57% | 51.64u |
| NCAAF | 43-37-1 | 53% | 0.57u |
| WNBA | 19-17-1 | 51% | -1.40u |
| MLB | 808-784-13 | 50% | -14.42u |
| NBA | 750-725-18 | 50% | -42.14u |
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