Braves vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks: NLCS Game 5 Prop Betting Preview
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried
- The Braves can close out the NLCS on Thursday night with Max Fried on the mound (8:08 p.m. ET, TBS).
- Our props tool projects Fried to go over his strikeout total of 4.5 at BetMGM.
With the Braves and Dodgers continuing their exciting championship series tonight, our team has spent the morning breaking down the player prop market.
At the time of this writing, no starting pitcher has been announced for the Dodgers. However, my research and the Action Labs Player Prop tool both suggest value on the starting pitcher for the Braves.
The tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and Max Fried’s strikeout total is a top-rated play.
So, read on to see our top player prop bet for today’s Braves-Dodgers matchup.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
|Braves vs. Dodgers||Braves (+115)|
|Time||8:08 p.m. ET|
Fried has been a stud in Atlanta’s last two playoff runs. He’s made six starts for the Braves during that stretch, and he’s posted a 2.52 ERA while pitching almost six innings per start. The Braves are also 5-1 in those games.
More importantly, however, is that he’s struck out five or more batters in five of those six starts. That includes the three starts he’s had against the Dodgers during that stretch, wherein he’s posted stat lines of:
- 2020 NLCS GM1: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K
- 2020 NLCS GM6: 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 5 K
- 2021 NLCS GM1: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K
Fried was a little off to begin this season, but he cranked it up in the second half. He steadily dropped his ERA throughout the year, and he’s cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 18 of his last 20 starts.
Today, FanGraphs SaberSim projections have Fried notching 5.09 strikeouts, while the Action Labs Player Props tool has him striking out 5.9. There’s plenty of value on the over 4.5 number BetMGM is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10