Giants vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks: NLDS Game 4 Betting Preview (October 12)
Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured; Justin Turner
Editor’s Note: Walker Buehler will start for the Dodgers tonight on short rest instead of Tony Gonsolin. The betting pick below has been updated with this information.
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-104 / -118)|
|Time||9:07 p.m. ET|
The San Francisco Giants have taken a 2-1 lead in the NLCS over their noted rival, Los Angeles Dodgers, and they put forth Anthony DeSclafani in the potential clinching game on Tuesday evening. He will face Tony Gonsolin.
In Monday night’s pitcher’s duel with extreme winds, the Giants were able to cling to a 1-0 lead thanks to an Evan Longoria home run. Look for more runs to be scored on Tuesday, but which team gets the edge?
DeSclafani Has Been Strong For Giants
Anthony DeSclafani was a strong acquisition for the Giants. He owned a sold 3.89 xERA with a 3.17 ERA. In September and October, he only allowed eight earned runs in 32 innings, including a shutout of these Los Angeles Dodgers.
DeScalfani loves to resort to his slider as an out-pitch. In fact, he utilizes this pitch 35.7% of the time. Against sliders thrown by right-handed pitchers since August 1, the Dodgers own a .271 xwOBA. This explains how DeSclafani was able to take care of business last time on the mound against them.
The Giants are also one of the best hitting teams while facing right-handed pitching in that same timespan. They owned a 111 wRC+, which ranks fifth-best in all of baseball, and that trend seems to be continuing in the playoffs when needed.
Losing Brandon Belt was a massive injury for the Giants, but considering Buster Posey has a 1.167 OPS in the postseason, he seems to be back on track with his earlier season numbers. Essentially, the Giants have very little issues in their lineup and should match up well with Gonsolin.
The Giants also had a 2.44 bullpen ERA in the final two months of the season. Camilo Doval came through with two shutout innings in Monday’s 1-0 victory, so his status is probably tentative. However, if needed, the closer who did not allow a run in 16 2/3 innings to end the season would likely be able to throw an inning.
Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee also threw, so Dominic Leone and Zack Littell could be the next relief pieces to come out of the bullpen. Needless to say, the Giants have plenty of options, and manager Gabe Kapler will use what he needs to secure a win.
Dodgers Need To Get Offensive
Tony Gonsolin is a strong pitcher, but his most significant weakness is allowing free passes. His 14.1% walk rate ranked in the bottom 3% of the league, and the Giants are one of the most patient teams in baseball (9.7% walk rate).
Gonsolin also likes to use his fastball 43.6% of the time, and the Giants owned a .384 xwOBA in the final two months of the season on fastballs from righty pitchers. Considering how the Giants knocked Gonsolin out of the game in 3 1/3 innings the last time they faced him, expect more of the same early.
The Dodgers also were not very strong facing righties to round out the season. Their collective 99 wRC+ ranked 15th in baseball.
Much like the Giants losing Belt, the Dodgers also lost their first baseman, Max Muncy, although the loss of Muncy was much more debilitating as he was the Dodgers’ top hitter throughout the season. The top-six hitters in the Dodger lineup are solid facing righties (over 100 wRC+ since August 1), but the bottom three are where the issues reside.
The Dodgers do have a well-rested bullpen with only Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen throwing after Max Scherzer on Monday night. These are clearly their best two arms, but after throwing only one inning each and this being an elimination game, they will likely see the mound again if necessary.
Walker Buehler will probably be available in relief, if it looks like the Dodgers are having some trouble.
The Giants should close out Game 4 on the road and advance to the NLCS. DeSclafani is more of a matchup nightmare for the Dodgers than Gonsolin is for the Giants.
Dave Roberts will probably pull out all of the stops needed facing elimination. Look for every one of their relievers to be available.
Finally, the lineup edge goes to the Giants, since they do not have any holes and the Dodgers have a few at the bottom. Take the Giants on the moneyline at +140 and play to +115.
Pick: Giants +140 (play to +115)
Author’s Note: With Buehler starting instead of Gonsolin, a Giants play remains the recommendation, but would play it to +125.
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