Saturday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Count on Marquez to Go Deep in Game (September 4)

Saturday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Count on Marquez to Go Deep in Game (September 4) article feature image
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Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez

Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out two prop bets I’m playing for Saturday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

MLB Player Props & Picks

German Marquez — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)

Rockies vs. Braves Braves (-118)
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
Best Line FanDuel

Coors Field is usually a house of horrors for pitcher’s but it has been home sweet home for German Marquez this season. In 15 starts in Colorado, he is 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He has tossed two complete games and a shutout.

Marquez is the type of pitcher who always wants to pitch deep into games and that is the exact type of pitcher we want to back when taking an over. He is averaging six innings per start at home and has completed at least six frames in 13 of his 15 starts in Denver.

While Marquez is known as more of a ground ball pitcher, with his 52% groundball rate one of the highest in the league, he is averaging 5.7 strikeouts per start at home. As good as Atlanta can be offensively, they do have the 12th most strikeouts this year. Back Marquez to go over this total at home.

Action Labs Grade: 9/10

Kolby Allard — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Rangers vs. Angels Angels (-155)
Time 9:08 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

The Texas Rangers pitching staff has had a rough season, and most of their starters have an ERA above five, including Kolby Allard. The former first round pick is 3-11 this season with a 5.01 ERA.

Teams have a .337 wOBA against Allard this season and he ranks in the bottom 25% in xERA, xBA and xwOBA. He ranks in the bottom 10% in barrel rate allowed.

Allard also ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in strikeout rate. He has just a 7.30 K/9 rate this year and is averaging 3.9 strikeouts per start. He has been even worse on the road this season too. Allard has faced the Angels twice already this year and has stayed under this total in both. I don’t expect the third time around to be any different.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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