MLB Player Props: Kyle Freeland, Charlie Morton Stand Out as Best Bets on Saturday (Sept. 11)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Freeland
Happy College Football Saturday! I’m sure you’re busy locking in your best bets for the Week 2 CFB slate.
However, why don’t you take an extra five minutes to read through today’s MLB Player Props column. Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve identified three plays that provide value.
Today, we’re fading two starting pitchers and taking a big plus-money prop on a hard-hitting second baseman.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade in my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Rockies vs. Phillies||Rockies (+180)|
|Time||6:05 p.m. ET|
Freeland has been impressive recently, striking out over 4.5 batters in six of his last seven starts.
However, like all Rockies pitchers, Freeland pitches worse on the road. Freeland has posted an 8.62 K/9 at Coors Field this season but that number drops to 7.71 away from Denver.
As such, he’s cashed this Over 4.5 number in just half of his 10 road starts. Today, he gets a really tough matchup in the Phillies.
Over the last 30 days and against LHPs, the Phillies are striking out at just an 18.3% rate, good for third-lowest in MLB. In that same situation but at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies strikeout rate drops to an absurdly low 15.2%.
The Phillies offense hasn’t been super hot lately, but Freeland should struggle to miss bats. Both our Action Labs Player Props tool and FanGraphs SaberSim projections has Freeland at 4.1 strikeouts tonight, creating solid value on the under 4.5 number DraftKings is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Jonathan Schoop Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) | Jonathan Schoop Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
|Tigers vs. Rays||Tigers (+130)|
|Time||6:10 p.m. ET|
Chris Archer is slowly bumping up his pitch count again, tossing four innings against Baltimore and five innings against Minnesota in his last two starts.
Archer allowed nine total hits, three homers, and six earned runs in the process. Archer has shown some promise in his Rays comeback, but he’s been far from perfect.
If there’s a Tiger that can take advantage of Archer’s inconsistencies, it’s Schoop. In 38 lifetime PA’s against Archer, Schoop has recorded 14 total hits with two doubles and six home runs. Schoop has hammered Archer in the past, posting a 94.5 mph average exit velocity in those batted balls.
Schoop has been up and down recently, but he had two hits and a HR yesterday against the Rays. I’ll take Schoop to hit his bases total and take a shot on him to homer in back-to-back nights.
Charlie Morton Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-138)
|Braves vs. Marlins||Braves (-290)|
|Time||7:20 p.m. ET|
There is zero defending the Marlins offense. They’ve been one of the worst in the league recently while striking out at the second highest rate in MLB over the past 30 days (26.9%).
Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has heated up recently. He’s become a huge part of a Braves rotation that’s turned it around in the second half.
However, 8.5 is an absurdly high number, one that FanDuel is offering at a relatively reasonable price.
Morton has hit over 8.5 strikeouts in just five of his 28 starts this season, good for an 18% hit rate. Granted, two of those outings were against Miami, but Morton failed to hit this number in his three other starts against the Marlins, totaling just 17 strikeouts in those contests.
FanGraphs SaberSim projections has Morton notching 7.25 strikeouts today. Meanwhile, our Action Labs Player Props tool has him at seven exactly. Either or, there’s no way I’m passing up under 8.5 strikeouts for Morton today.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10