As the leaves turn to gold and red this October, U.S. casinos find themselves grappling with a peculiar pattern of visitor behavior in 2025.
Recent insights from Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz shed light on the current state of this dynamic industry. While casino foot traffic might have taken a hit, the industry isn't necessarily rolling the dice on unfavorable odds just yet.
Take September, for instance. The month marked a continuation of a subtle decline in visitor numbers that began midyear, with a modest drop in foot traffic compared to the previous year.
An earlier Labor Day was a noteworthy factor influencing this dip, which lured visitors in August, leaving September with fewer attendees. This calendar shift, combined with reduced discretionary travel from middle-income patrons, contributed to the decline.
Katz wrote that “seasonal normalization, rather than structural decline,” best characterized the September visitation slide. He emphasized that Las Vegas Strip foot traffic softness was offset by sequential revenue stability at major operators, implying that yield management and higher‑spending demographics were preserving margins.
Year-over-Year Casino Visitation Numbers Down
Casino visits were down by 5-6% compared to 2024, following a notable dip in August. We also noticed a downward trend last July.
However, it's important to note that these figures are also 17% lower than the pre-pandemic levels observed in 2019, reflecting a protracted normalization phase post-COVID-19.
Despite fewer visits, there's a silver lining: per-customer spending is on the rise, resulting in stable gross gaming revenue. Katz described this situation as evidence of a "rebalanced but resilient" customer base.
Regional Dynamics at Play
Different parts of the U.S. are seeing different trends in casino visits. Las Vegas, usually full of gamblers, isn't as busy as before.
But smaller places like Pennsylvania and Colorado are doing well. In fact, more people are visiting Pennsylvania than in 2019. Colorado has seen about 5% more visitors, partly because they've improved their facilities.
Before the pandemic hit, 2019 was a big year for U.S. casinos. They were very popular as places to have fun, bringing in all sorts of people.
There were many reasons people wanted to visit casinos, like playing games, eating at restaurants, and watching shows. Big events like conventions or major sports events, such as the Super Bowl, also attracted crowds, making casinos bustling hubs of activity.
But it hasn't been quite the same since then.
“Our (Jefferies) take is that the monthly performance reflects the volatile path toward the normalization of traffic trends post-COVID, as well as the heightened competition and renovations in specific locations,” Katz said.
Looking Forward: Opportunities and Cautions
Katz emphasized that the sharp drop in July was an anomaly rather than a marker of a deeper trend.
Things are slowly getting back to normal. But until big events like the Formula 1 Grand Prix in November bring in more visitors, places like the Las Vegas Strip might grow more slowly.
Overall, investors feel cautiously optimistic about U.S. casinos. Even though fewer people are visiting, the industry is doing well because of smart business moves and people spending more when they do visit.
Understanding these patterns is important for anyone making decisions about the industry. In the world of casinos, being patient could pay off for everyone involved as the industry finds its footing in 2025, even if it's a bit quieter than before.
