Nick Giffen

Reichard has cleared this line in 23 of 33 games in his career (69.7%) thanks in part to his hall-of-fame worthy accuracy in his young career. His accuracy should be just fine in a game in Tampa Bay with beautiful weather in the forecast, and there's nothing about this matchup in particular that should push him away from his career averages one way or the other with a relatively neutral spread, total, and coaching aggression compared to league averages. This is a good spot to rely on his career rates, which gives us a ton of wiggle room to be wrong here. I'm projecting he clears 6.5 kicking points around 63% of the time.

Luck over

The New York Giants have been abysmal for years at stopping long runs, and despite the head coach and defensive coordinator changes, 2026 has gotten off to a similar start. The Giants have allowed a 17.1% rate of 10-plus yard carries to RBs when there's at least 10 yards of room compared to a league average of 10.9% over the past four years. That's even worse than last year's 16% mark. And Pollard is no average back. He's been at or above league average in this same metric in five of seven full seasons, and so far is at 15.8% this year while facing rush defenses that grade around league average. As just 2.5-point underdogs, there's a real chance the Titans stay in this game, meaning Pollard can have mid double-digit carry volume. If he gets that, he should clear 12.5 againt a relatively leaky defense. I have his median at 15.5 yards in this market. Three yards of separation compared to the market is quite solid, so I'd play this to -140 at 12.5 yards or -115 at 13.5 yards.

In what was one of the unluckiest bad beats I've had in a while, Aaron Rodgers was picked off on his last passing attempt of the game last week when we took his under. And it wasn't his fault. Rodgers threw a quick pass to Germie Bernard with no defender nearby, and Bernard had it in his hands. But Bernard tried to run before he fully caught it, popped the ball up in the air, and it went right to a Patriots player. That's Rodgers lone interception on the season, and it didn't even come off a turnover worthy play. Rodgers is still elite at protecting the ball on his throws, with just nine interceptions in 19 games as a Steeler. And thanks to multi-interceptions games, Rodgers has actually thrown zero interceptions in just six of those 19 games for a 68.4% rate of staying under 0.5 picks. The Bengals matchup is right around league average, so projecting Rodgers for under half an interception makes a lot of sense here, despite potentially higher passing volume. I'm going back to the well as long as books will give us anywhere near even money on these.

Young has stayed under this number both games this year and hasn't really looked to scramble much with just three total scrambles in two games. There also probably won't be a ton of need to scramble against this Cleveland. Last year QBs scrambled 13% less than they normally did when facing the Browns compared to all other teams, and this year so far it's been 30% less, with relatively mobile QBs Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield combining for three scrambles in two games against the Browns, all of them from Mayfield. Since scrambles are the bulk of Young's rushing volume, it's likely he'll stay under 14.5 yards by just not needing to scramble so much. Plus, with the Panthers as favorites, there's a solid chance of a kneel down to slightly mitigate any positive yardage. Per the Luck Rankings Dashboard, I'm projecting the following line for Young: 1.9 scrambles at 7.3 ypc 0.3 designed runs at 1.6 ypc 0.1 sneaks at 1.5 ypc 0.7 kneel downs at -1.1 ypc That gives an average of 12.7 yards with a median of 10 yards and a 64.5% chance to stay under 14.5 rushing yards.