Nick Giffen

Nick Giffen's Picks

Today
Pending
TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-140 at BetMGM, Caesars, Hard Rock) Henderson got phased out of the offense for the most part in the conference championship game, but a lot of that has to do with the snow and with the Patriots playing with the lead, with Vrabel trusting Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions. With a week off to prepare, in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not, I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs which, while still not a ton, was 17 routes in two games, being targeted three times. This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (5th most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage. And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single high looks. We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high pressure defense, and while everyone's target per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways, and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Maye is under pressure of 9 regular Patriot pass catchers. With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs. I'd play this to -165, meaning all current available prices at the time I dropped the pick in the Action App are playable.
215
25
54
11
Propapalooza
58
8
98
12
*MY SPECIALTY BET* As given on Prop show
97
13
As given on prop show
86
13
As given on prop show
58
11
As given on prop show
70
15
At DK under Super Bowl MVP tab and scroll down Given on @Stuckey2 's 1k Challenge
29
8
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 30 Days22-37-037%
0.01u
All Time1293-2565-2233%
282.31u
Top Leagues
NCAAB429-358-854%
105.60u
NFL541-858-1138%
103.20u
NASCAR254-1195-218%
52.62u
NHL3-1-075%
3.57u
World Cup13-26-033%
1.18u
FORMULA_ONE0-1-00%
-0.50u
NASCAR_XFINITY0-1-00%
-0.50u
Women's World Cup1-4-020%
-0.95u
MLB2-4-033%
-1.71u
European Championship17-49-125%
-3.47u