Nick Giffen

Nick Giffen

Nick Giffen
Role
Predictive Analyst
Experience
10 years
Total Bets
3.7K
Followers
246.9K

Nick Giffen's Picks

Today
Pending
N.Chubb o15.5 Rush Yds-110
HOU
HOU Team Abbreviation@IND Team Abbreviation
IND
0.55u
11/30 6:00 PM
Nick Chubb over 15.5 rush yds (-110 at Bet365, -115 at BetMGM and HardRock) Chubb has seen his role greatly diminished over the last three weeks, with just 4.67 carries per game. However, in two of the last six games he's still seen double-digit carries, so I don't think we can fully bake him into a 3-6 carry per game role. Using a weighted average I'm getting around 5.9 carries expected for Chubb. Chubb's matchup against the Colts suits him well as the plurality of his runs go to the right (45.7%). That produces his largest yards per carry of the three directions at 4.35 ypc and matches up well against the Colts who allow the most ypc on runs to the right (4.53) compared to middle (2.88) or left (3.89). Additionally, Chubb's runs have primarily come using man or gap concepts (62%) which the Colts have fared slightly worse against, allowing a 3% higher success rate to these runs compared to zone concept runs and 0.26 yards per carry more. I'm projecting Chubb for 4.15 yards per carry, so that would put him around 24.5 yards on average. However, his rushing profile has a high gap between his mean and median carry, which lowers his median expectation to 18.5. That means I would only play this at 15.5 as I have him just under 58% to clear this number. The rest of the market is sitting at 17.5-18.5 for Chubb. The over is not playable at those books by my projections. This is one of the bigger values I'm showing on this game (the market is pretty sharp for this one). Given the relatively thin value and the market sitting at an unplayable number outside of a few books, I'll just make this a half unit play.
83
16
Under 35-110
SF
SF Team Abbreviation@CLE Team Abbreviation
CLE
1u
11/30 6:00 PM
Super wind
89
11
Under 31.5+150
SF
SF Team Abbreviation@CLE Team Abbreviation
CLE
0.25u
11/30 6:00 PM
Super wind Alt under
43
10
Under 27.5+258
SF
SF Team Abbreviation@CLE Team Abbreviation
CLE
0.1u
11/30 6:00 PM
Super wind Alt under
28
4
Under 24.5+420
SF
SF Team Abbreviation@CLE Team Abbreviation
CLE
0.1u
11/30 6:00 PM
Super wind Alt under
34
9
Under 17.5+1300
SF
SF Team Abbreviation@CLE Team Abbreviation
CLE
0.1u
11/30 6:00 PM
Super wind Alt under
33
9
D.Vele Anytime TD Scorer Yes+525
NO
NO Team Abbreviation@MIA Team Abbreviation
MIA
0.5u
11/30 6:00 PM
MGM off market. It is time
39
5
M.Brosmer 300+ Passing Yards Yes+2900
MIN
MIN Team Abbreviation@SEA Team Abbreviation
SEA
0.1u
11/30 9:05 PM
#Tailing @gneiffer07
66
16
Under 47.5-105
BUF
BUF Team Abbreviation@PIT Team Abbreviation
PIT
1.05u
11/30 9:25 PM
Luck Under, weather, each team likely down a starting Tackle, getting key number of 47
214
31
WAS +6.5-115
DEN
DEN Team Abbreviation@WAS Team Abbreviation
WAS
1.15u
12/01 1:20 AM
A+ grade luck side ... No. 11 of all time Marke moving to 6 so grab the last 6.5 available
129
26
NYG +7.5-115
NYG
NYG Team Abbreviation@NE Team Abbreviation
NE
1.15u
12/02 1:15 AM
A+ Grade Luck Side Patriots could be down their whole left side offensive line which are No. 4 overall LT Will Campbell and third round LG Jared Wilson from 2025 draft. Pats gave up 43.6% pressure rate to the No. 29 pressure Bengals with no Wilson and just 60% snaps from Campbell.
232
35
Lowest Scoring Team (Regular Season): NY Jets+900
1u
3rd lowest Expected Score last year 4th largest O-line downgrade (-$30m AAV per 4for4) Jets opposing D's spent most $ of all 32 schedules Fields/Tyrod not upgrades/likely downgrades & will run more w/Fields eating clock 5th unluckiest set of opponents from last year (opponents regression to better results) Tankapalooza
51
11
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday1-0-0100%
0.50u
Last 7 Days8-28-022%
-3.85u
Last 30 Days51-73-141%
7.62u
All Time1225-2428-2133%
290.48u
Top Leagues
NFL483-735-1039%
114.37u
NCAAB419-344-854%
102.60u
NASCAR254-1195-218%
52.62u
NHL3-1-075%
3.57u
World Cup13-26-033%
1.18u
FORMULA_ONE0-1-00%
-0.50u
NASCAR_XFINITY0-1-00%
-0.50u
Women's World Cup1-4-020%
-0.95u
MLB2-4-033%
-1.71u
European Championship17-49-125%
-3.47u

Summary

Nick Giffen is a predictive analyst at Action Network and is the creator of the NFL Luck Rankings. He also hosts Bet What Happens Live! on Action Network’s YouTube channel during the NFL season, and co-hosts Running Hot, Action’s auto racing podcast.

Aside from the NFL, Nick uses his projection models to specialize in NASCAR betting and DFS, NCAA basketball player props, and projections for top soccer tournaments.

Experience

After getting his Ph.D. in mathematics, Nick worked in the biotechnology industry as a data analyst, working with large data sets to optimize corn to ethanol production. During that time, he also wrote about fantasy football and fantasy NASCAR for RotoViz. 

In 2016, he became a co-owner of RotoViz. Since then, Giffen has worked as a freelancer with FantasyLabs and the Action Network, before being hired as a full-time predictive analyst at Action in early 2022.

At Action, Giffen has developed in-game player prop models to live bet the NFL, which he uses on his show, Bet What Happens Live! He also pioneered Action's Luck Rankings, which have been used to bet NFL sides and totals successfully. 

Giffen frequently appears on several of Action's shows to talk NFL and college basketball, and he is a co-host of Running Hot, Action's motorsports betting podcast.

Education

Giffen graduated from James Madison University with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics. He earned a Ph.D. in Mathematics from N.C. State.

On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.
Specialties
  • NASCAR Expert
  • NFL Luck Rankings
  • NCAAB Player Props