Experience
After getting his Ph.D. in mathematics, Nick worked in the biotechnology industry as a data analyst, working with large data sets to optimize corn to ethanol production. During that time, he also wrote about fantasy football and fantasy NASCAR for RotoViz.
In 2016, he became a co-owner of RotoViz. Since then, Giffen has worked as a freelancer with FantasyLabs and the Action Network, before being hired as a full-time predictive analyst at Action in early 2022.
At Action, Giffen has developed in-game player prop models to live bet the NFL, which he uses on his show, Bet What Happens Live! He also pioneered Action's Luck Rankings, which have been used to bet NFL sides and totals successfully.
Giffen frequently appears on several of Action's shows to talk NFL and college basketball, and he is a co-host of Running Hot, Action's motorsports betting podcast.
Education
Giffen graduated from James Madison University with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics. He earned a Ph.D. in Mathematics from N.C. State.
Specialties
- NASCAR Expert
- NFL Luck Rankings
- NCAAB Player Props
More from Nick Giffen
Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
K.Fairbairn u7.5 Kicking Pts-111
HOU
@
JAC
1.11u
10/18 1:30 PM
Ka'imi Fairbairn under 7.5 kicking pts (-111 at DK)
Houston is a Luck Rankings side meaning they are more likely to cover the spread, and if that's the case it's probably thanks to some red zone TD regression.
Houston ranks 20th in red zone TD rate despite ranking 13th in my offensive power rankings and in offensive DVOA.
There's also some wind forecast for Wembley Stadium, with gusts into the mid 20s which can cause a bit of havoc on the field, as well as a 60% chance of rain. That's a far cry from the comfortable conditions Fairbairn has at Reliant Stadium at home.
I'm projecting 7.2 kicking points with a 57% chance to stay under 7.5, while our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has an even lower projection of 6.6 points. When we're in lockstep, it makes me even more confident, so I'm locking this one in.
44
Under 39.5-105
PIT
@
TB
0.53u
10/18 5:00 PM
110
P.Freiermuth Anytime TD Scorer Yes+325
PIT
@TB
0.5u
10/18 5:00 PM
66
P.Freiermuth First Touchdown Scorer Yes+1500
PIT
@TB
0.2u
10/18 5:00 PM
51
J.Warren o3.5 Recs-118
PIT
@TB
1.18u
10/18 5:00 PM
Jaylen Warren over 3.5 receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh should struggle to get much going on the ground against a stout Tampa Bay defense that allows the second-lowest yards per carry in the league.
My OL/DL matchup tool in the Luck Rankings Dashboard gives the Bucs a strong edge in the trenches stopping the run, but not as a pass rush unit. That means Rodgers should have time to pick his spots, but with strong winds forecast, he may have to consider shorter pass options.
That fits perfectly with how Tampa Bay allows pass attempts. The Bucs allow the seventh-lowest average depth of target, and the fourth highest rate of passes to backfield-aligned players. They also allows the ninth-highest catch rate to backfield aligned players, which should give Warren a chance to catch plenty of balls thrown his way.
Warren has cleared this line only twice in five games this year, but this is a spot where I actually have him clearing this just shy of 60% of the time, so I'd play this to around -140.
95
PIT/TB: No Touchdowns+10000
PIT
@TB
0.05u
10/18 5:00 PM
Action Analytics: Data-Driven Picks for NFL Week 6
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-predictions-week-6-expert-data-driven-picks-for-sunday-oct-18?utm_source=action_app&utm_medium=app&utm_campaign=article_share
13
K.Sadiq First Touchdown Scorer Yes+2700
NYJ
@
NE
0.1u
10/18 5:00 PM
45
K.Sadiq Anytime TD Scorer Yes+490
NYJ
@NE
0.5u
10/18 5:00 PM
59
D.Douglas Anytime TD Scorer Yes+600
NYJ
@NE
0.4u
10/18 5:00 PM
62
D.Douglas First Touchdown Scorer Yes+2800
NYJ
@NE
0.1u
10/18 5:00 PM
39
I.Likely Anytime TD Scorer Yes+185
NO
@
NYG
1u
10/18 5:00 PM
64
I.Likely First Touchdown Scorer Yes+1100
NO
@NYG
0.25u
10/18 5:00 PM
55
NO/NYG 1st Sack: NO+140
NO
@NYG
1u
10/18 5:00 PM
13
M.Lemon Anytime TD Scorer Yes+700
CAR
@
PHI
0.25u
10/18 5:00 PM
86
M.Lemon First Touchdown Scorer Yes+3000
CAR
@PHI
0.1u
10/18 5:00 PM
58
CAR/PHI Total Sacks under 4.5+100
CAR
@PHI
1u
10/18 5:00 PM
16
CAR/PHI 1st Sack: PHI+150
CAR
@PHI
1u
10/18 5:00 PM
16
TEN/IND 1st Sack: TEN+135
TEN
@
IND
1u
10/18 5:00 PM
13
Josh Berry +140 (Top 10)
Freeway Insurance 500
1u
#RunningHot
52
Ross Chastain +130 (Top 10)
Freeway Insurance 500
1u
Get +160 at B365 or +152 at Kalshi. I"ll track at +130
59
Michael McDowell +625 (Top 10)
Freeway Insurance 500
0.2u
#RunningHot
52
Connor Zilisch +850 (Top 10)
Freeway Insurance 500
0.2u
#RunningHot
50
Todd Gilliland +1400 (Top 10)
Freeway Insurance 500
0.1u
#RunningHot
49
Noah Gragson +1200 (Top 10)
Freeway Insurance 500
0.1u
#RunningHot
51
J.Brissett o6.5 Rush Yds-114
ARI
@
LA
1.14u
10/18 8:05 PM
Jacoby Brissett over 6.5 rush yds (-114 at FD)
Brissett has cleared this in four of five games, and the Rams have allowed QBs to clear this in four of five games including a season high to Josh Allen last week. Allen, along with four of the five QBs the Rams have faced all ran for at or above their median rush yards in a game this season against the Rams, and that Winston game was the game he replaced Jaxson Dart, so that's a big caveat.
Arizona should be in a heavy trailing script, giving Brissett plenty of dropbacks a chance to tuck and scramble, and he's unlikely going to have to take any kneel downs as a heavy underdog.
I'm projecting Brissett for a median of 11 rushing yards, well clear of this 6.5 line.
82
BUF/LV Total Sacks under 4.5+100
BUF
@
LV
1u
10/18 8:25 PM
13
LAC +8.5-115
LAC
@
KC
0.57u
10/18 8:25 PM
PMPOTW...I mean Luck Rankings pick of the week
92
Pending
GB/DAL 1st Sack: GB+155
DAL
@
GB
1u
10/19 12:20 AM
16
1st Sack Parlay/Round Robin+3495
0.1u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-predictions-week-6-expert-data-driven-picks-for-sunday-oct-18
1st Sack Round Robin at DraftKings
PHI +150
NO +140
TEN +135
GB +155
8
Futures
Trevor Lawrence+1600
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Interceptions Thrown
0.25u
Ranks No. 1 in my model's "true INT/G rate" among starters that would play a full season if no injury. Good at 14-1 at Caesars
46
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 14-42-0 | 25% | -1.02u |
| Last 30 Days | 44-88-0 | 33% | 0.36u |
| All Time | 1504-3077-24 | 33% | 331.97u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 592-945-11 | 38% | 107.45u |
| NCAAB | 467-405-8 | 53% | 97.66u |
| NASCAR | 322-1465-2 | 18% | 96.87u |
| NHL | 6-1-0 | 86% | 6.20u |
| World Cup | 53-101-2 | 34% | 4.97u |
| FORMULA_ONE | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| NASCAR_XFINITY | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-4-0 | 20% | -0.95u |
| MLB | 2-4-0 | 33% | -1.71u |
| European Championship | 17-49-1 | 25% | -3.47u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.