Nick Giffen

Drake Maye over 28.5 Rush Yds (-110 at BetMGM or Bet365) Drake Mayve over 5.5 Rush Att (-105 at BetMGM) Drake Maye's dropbacks have strongly correlated with the Patriots average second half scoring margin. In two losses where the Pats trailed by an average of nearly 6 points per play in the 2nd half, Maye had an average of 50 dropbacks. In the five games they led by anywhere from a half point to 5.5 points per play, he always had between 30 and 40 dropbacks. And in the one 2H blowout win Maye had just 21 dropbacks. That's all important because the Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs to Tampa Bay on the road, and while I make this game closer to a pick'em, even then that means Maye would project for around 39.25 dropbacks. Maye's scramble rate this year has been 11.6% of dropbacks despite facing a slightly unfavorable opposing defensive schedule for scramble rates. However, Tampa Bay is clearly the team that allows the highest scramble rate of the teams he will have faced, as the Bucs rank No. 2 in raw scramble rated allowed and No. 1 in QB-adjusted scramble rate over expectation allowed. The Bucs are allowing QBs to run for a 3.3% higher absolute scramble rate than their base rates, or a 38.1% relatively higher scramble rate. That would put Maye's scramble rate expectation at around 15-16%. Simple math suggests a 15% scramble rate on 39.25 dropbacks is a shade under 5.9 scrambles expected, and that's using a neutral second half game script instead of one where the Patriots are more likely to be slightly trailing than not based off the spread. Maye's scrambles have gone for just over 7 yards, while the Bucs allow just 6.7 yards per QB scramble, both below the NFL average of 7.7 yards. So even at around 6.1 yards per scramble, I'm getting north of 35 yards expected on scrambles alone as a somewhat conservative estimate. With reduced kneel down potential and a designed run/QB sneak or two added in, I'm projecting Maye closer to 40 yards rushing, with a median closer to 32.5 yards. Splitting 1u with half a unit each on att and yds

Drake Maye over 28.5 Rush Yds (-110 at BetMGM or Bet365) Drake Mayve over 5.5 Rush Att (-105 at BetMGM) Drake Maye's dropbacks have strongly correlated with the Patriots average second half scoring margin. In two losses where the Pats trailed by an average of nearly 6 points per play in the 2nd half, Maye had an average of 50 dropbacks. In the five games they led by anywhere from a half point to 5.5 points per play, he always had between 30 and 40 dropbacks. And in the one 2H blowout win Maye had just 21 dropbacks. That's all important because the Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs to Tampa Bay on the road, and while I make this game closer to a pick'em, even then that means Maye would project for around 39.25 dropbacks. Maye's scramble rate this year has been 11.6% of dropbacks despite facing a slightly unfavorable opposing defensive schedule for scramble rates. However, Tampa Bay is clearly the team that allows the highest scramble rate of the teams he will have faced, as the Bucs rank No. 2 in raw scramble rated allowed and No. 1 in QB-adjusted scramble rate over expectation allowed. The Bucs are allowing QBs to run for a 3.3% higher absolute scramble rate than their base rates, or a 38.1% relatively higher scramble rate. That would put Maye's scramble rate expectation at around 15-16%. Simple math suggests a 15% scramble rate on 39.25 dropbacks is a shade under 5.9 scrambles expected, and that's using a neutral second half game script instead of one where the Patriots are more likely to be slightly trailing than not based off the spread. Maye's scrambles have gone for just over 7 yards, while the Bucs allow just 6.7 yards per QB scramble, both below the NFL average of 7.7 yards. So even at around 6.1 yards per scramble, I'm getting north of 35 yards expected on scrambles alone as a somewhat conservative estimate. With reduced kneel down potential and a designed run/QB sneak or two added in, I'm projecting Maye closer to 40 yards rushing, with a median closer to 32.5 yards. Splitting 1u with half a unit each on att and yds

#LuckRankings

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.