
Nick Giffen

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Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 22-37-0 (+0.01u)
Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
Pending
T.Henderson o0.5 Recs-140
SEA
NE
0.7u
02/08 11:30 PM
TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-140 at BetMGM, Caesars, Hard Rock)
Henderson got phased out of the offense for the most part in the conference championship game, but a lot of that has to do with the snow and with the Patriots playing with the lead, with Vrabel trusting Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions.
With a week off to prepare, in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not, I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs which, while still not a ton, was 17 routes in two games, being targeted three times.
This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (5th most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage.
And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single high looks.
We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high pressure defense, and while everyone's target per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways, and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Maye is under pressure of 9 regular Patriot pass catchers.
With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs.
I'd play this to -165, meaning all current available prices at the time I dropped the pick in the Action App are playable.
215
25
SB LX: Total Game Sacks - Over 4.5-140
SEA
NE
1u
02/08 11:30 PM
Propapalooza
54
11
D. Maye under 6.5 1Q Rush Yds-113
SEA
NE
1.13u
02/08 11:30 PM
Propapalooza
58
8
J. Love to Record a defensive Interception +800
SEA
NE
0.25u
02/08 11:30 PM
Propapalooza
98
12
C. Bryant to Record a defensive Interception +950
SEA
NE
0.2u
02/08 11:30 PM
Propapalooza
99
14
1st Reception Yards: C. Kupp under 10.5-120
SEA
NE
1u
02/08 11:30 PM
*MY SPECIALTY BET*
As given on Prop show
97
13
R.Stevenson u12.5 Longest Rush-114
SEA
NE
1.14u
02/08 11:30 PM
As given on prop show
86
13
A.J. Barner 3rd Quarter TD+1200
SEA
NE
0.2u
02/08 11:30 PM
As given on prop show
58
11
A.J. Barner 2nd Half TD+600
SEA
NE
0.3u
02/08 11:30 PM
As given on prop show
70
15
At DK under Super Bowl MVP tab and scroll down
Given on @Stuckey2 's 1k Challenge
29
8
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