Nick Giffen

Luck Rankings https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-8-luck-rankings-picks-7-luck-based-bets-consider

TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush under 7.5 yards (-110 at DK/MGM/ESPN) Only 3 of his 42 (7.1%) carries from at least 8 yards away from the end zone have cleared this number, well below the league average rate of 17.7% Faces a strong Browns run D that ranks inside the top 10 in preventing explosive runs CLE also has been elite at stopping man/gap concept runs, allowing the third lowest success rate and the lowest yards per carry Important because Henderson has skewed 60/40 toward man/gap concept runs Even if I was generous and counted Henderson's two seven yard runs as eight yard runs, I'd still get him staying under this number 53.5% of the time at 6 carries However, again I'm being generous in two ways: 1. counting two runs that wouldn't have cleared 2. Giving him his consensus line of 6 carries...I am projecting him for fewer carries than that In all, I have this around 58 to 63% to stay under using the most realistic edge cases and projections

Luck Rankings https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-8-luck-rankings-picks-7-luck-based-bets-consider

Strong Luck Over + Luck Rankings play on Texans means for both to hit Texans TT must hit Also love that SF generates 2nd worst pressure rate over expectation and Stroud jumps from 3rd worst of 37 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks under pressure to 10th in ANY/A with a clean pocket Over 22.5 is fine too as 22 isnt key at all

Andy Dalton over 1.5 rush att (+115 at Bet365, +110 at MGM) Dalton has scrambled 7 times on 252 dropbacks as a Panther, which equates to one in every 36 dropbacks. He's projected for 36 dropbacks on the dot, so that's 1 scramble on average right there He's facing a Bills defense that allows QBs to scramble right at their league average rates so far through 6 Bills games, so there doesn't need to be much adjustment there However I'd suspect the long-term scramble rate to be higher given the Bills high pressure rate and use of two-high safety looks, both of which tend to promote more scrambling In his starts as a Panther (to not bias for games when he came in on mop up duty in blowouts and earned kneeldowns at a high rate), Dalton has one rush att for every 18 dropbacks, which would put him at 2 rush attempts. The most likely way he'll run here is with a scramble, and the Panthers are 7-7.5 point underdogs. If that most-likely scenario happens and Carolina is trailing by 1-2 scores for a good chunk of the game, Dalton projects to more like 43 dropbacks which would really help. A designed run/qb sneak isn't out of the question, or even an aborted snap fumble recovery which would count as a run. There's lots of little subtle ways to get an extra carry that all get factored in and add up. Accounting slightly less propensity to scramble/more likely to get sacked at his age, and lower kneel down probability (he could still have a first half kneel and there is a non-zero chance the Panthers win) I'm still getting 1.87 rush attempts which would equate to around a 56% chance to clear 1.5, so getting +115 is nearly a 10% edge.

Luck Rankings https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-8-luck-rankings-picks-7-luck-based-bets-consider

Not a Mall Santa https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-predictions-week-8-expert-data-driven-picks-sunday-oct-26

Not a Mall Santa https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-predictions-week-8-expert-data-driven-picks-sunday-oct-26

Not a Mall Santa https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-predictions-week-8-expert-data-driven-picks-sunday-oct-26

Cam Ward over 34.5 Pass Att (-109 at DK ... there's a single 33.5 -130 at MGM but most of the market is at 34.5 so I'll track it at that) Ward's median is 34 this year, but the Titans are 14.5-point dogs to the Colts here so we can expect more than 34 as a starting point here. The Colts actually have a below average time of possession, especially compared to the opponents TEN has faced this year, so there will likley be more time TEN spends with the ball That's in part thanks to the Colts extreme explosiveness with Jonathan Taylor on the ground and several big plays through the air Colts project as the most explosive team overall in Week 8 The Colts have also made a ton of big defensive plays (6th most turnovers forced per game) to leave them with short fields or even defensive scores, handing the ball back to their opponent quickly I'm projecting closer to 36 pass attempts with upside for around 39

Luck Rankings https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-8-luck-rankings-picks-7-luck-based-bets-consider

Marcus Mariota over 23.5 rush yds (-114 at FD) Kansas City allows QBs to scramble at the highest rate in the league, and over 20 percentage points (on a relative basis) over their scramble expectation Even Jared Goff had one of his four scrambles on the season two weeks ago against the Chiefs Mariota already scrambles on 5.2% of his dropbacks as a Commander, and at a 20% increased rate, that'd be around 6.25% of dropbacks The Chiefs allow nearly 8 ypc on QB scrambles and Mariota has run for just over 8 ypc on scrambles, so with around 2.25 projected scrambles that's 18 yards on average there. Mariota also projects for about 4 designed runs and 0.25 kneel downs based off the rates he's been used as a rusher in his two seasons with the Commanders and the total expected play volume Even at the Chiefs stingy 2.33 ypc allowed on non-sneak designed runs to QBs, that'd give Mariota a projection of just over 27 yards, but we have to think the true number is somewhere between the Chiefs' 2.33 and Mariota's 6.4 ypc on designed runs. I'm conservatively projecting an average closer to 31 and a median around 26.5 yards