Fade or Follow? What’s Driving Tuesday’s Most Important Line Moves?
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
When monitoring the live betting market, it’s important to have access to live odds and betting data to stay up-to-date with key line movement at offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks.
While knowing that lines have moved is imperative for all winning bettors, it’s even more crucial to know why lines are moving as well. Sure, a two-point college basketball line move is noteworthy, but the cause of that move is what really provides value.
Was it wiseguy money that moved the number? If so, that provides insight into the potential value of that side. Is it overwhelming public money or just consistent, steady action? That’s likely a situation where it’s correct to fade the move. Or was it simply a breaking injury report or weather update (for outdoor sports)?
With this in mind, I’ve dissected today’s biggest line moves to analyze how bettors should react before wagering on tonight’s slate of games.
Boston College at NC State (-5)
7 p.m. ET
The line move: Boston College opened as an 8-point underdog and have received only 43% of spread tickets, yet the line has dropped to Eagles +5.
The reason: Sharp bettors have pummeled Boston College in this matchup, highlighted by a steam move triggered this morning at Eagles +6.5. This game is trending to be one of the most heavily-bet games of the day and professional action is clearly responsible for this line move.
The Citadel at East Tennessee State (-18)
7 p.m. ET
The line move: ETSU opened -20.5 across the betting market and the line has fallen to -18 at Bookmaker.eu and even to -17.5 at a handful of other sportsbooks.
The reason: With 78% of spread tickets and 88% of dollars backing The Citadel, oddsmakers have been forced to steadily adjust this line down to the current number. While bettors clearly like the big underdog in this matchup, the line adjustment is a reaction to steady, one-sided money as opposed to professional bettors taking a side.
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues (-157)
8 p.m. ET
The line move: St. Louis opened -145 at Pinnacle and has since climbed to -157, which appears to be due to 84% of moneyline dollars taking the Blues.
The reason: After checking in with NHL analyst Michael Leboff, this adjustment is likely due to Carter Hutton getting the start over Jake Allen. According to Leboff, Hutton has been the better option so far this season and the line move is based on this, as opposed to overwhelming sharp or public action.
Top Photo: NC State guard Allerik Freeman
Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports