Moore: How to Play Jakob Poeltl’s Rebounding Prop Based on Spurs-Grizzlies Matchup
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jakob Poeltl
Betting Odds: San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
- Spread: Spurs -3
- Over/Under: 205
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
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Here’s a simple concept: When you shoot a shot from further away, you shoot it with more force. Turns out you have to throw the ball harder to cover more distance. Physics, am I right? And the same way, if you throw it harder and miss, the caroms exit the rim and backboard with more force, and travel further.
That was all a long way of saying that teams that shoot more 3-pointers produce rebound opportunities further away than teams that shoot closer to the rim, and teams that shoot fewer 3-pointers produce more opportunities closer to the rim.
And in related news, Spurs center Jakob Poeltl has a Bet Quality of 10 (out of 10) in our FantasyLabs NBA Props Tool for his over/under of 5.5 rebounds against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.
On the surface, this seems like a bad matchup considering he’s going up against the brutal behemoth of Marc Gasol. Poeltl is younger, Poeltl is smaller and Poeltl is sharing minutes at center with several other Spurs bigs. However, the Grizzlies’ shot makeup makes the over on this prop make sense.
Poeltl’s highest rebound nights have come against:
- Denver Nuggets: 17th in 3-point attempts per game
- Phoenix Suns (2X): 22nd
- Los Angeles Lakers: 16th
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 23rd
- Toronto Raptors: 10th
- Utah Jazz: 13th
So overall, there’s a trend toward low-3-point attempt teams here, and Memphis is 25th in 3-point shots per game. (San Antonio, by the way, is No. 1.)
Poeltl’s great at getting under the rim and has limited explosiveness but good little bursts. He’s really good at getting position right under the rim and re-jumping like he does in the following video. Granted, it’s against Joakim Noah — who can’t jump anymore — but guess what? That’s Poeltl’s backup matchup Wednesday:
So with how Poeltl’s minutes have gone — taking more and more of a role — the case for the over here is solid.
Final note: Poeltl has the third-best on-off court net differential on the Spurs this season. He’s done a lot for them, and conversely, the Raptors’ bench hasn’t been the same this year since dealing Poeltl in the Kawhi Leonard trade.
Now clearly the Raptors will take that every single time, but it is notable that a bench unit that included Poeltl was one of the best in the league last year and units with Poeltl on a depth-challenged team in San Antonio have been good.