The Worst States for Porch Pirates — U.S. Risk Index
Have you ever checked a delivery update, seen “Delivered,” and walked outside to find nothing waiting on your doorstep?
As online shopping continues to rise, package theft has become a persistent frustration for millions of Americans. A new analysis from The Action Network identifies which states face the highest likelihood of porch piracy in 2025.
The study examines three core indicators: Google search activity for package-theft terms over the past 12 months, the share of residents who reported a stolen package in the previous three months, and home-based larceny-theft incidents recorded in 2023–24.
These data points are combined using a weighted model to produce an Implied Probability Score — a single measure of how likely residents in each state are to experience package theft.
This modelling approach mirrors probability-based frameworks used in other consumer-behaviour analyses, including those referenced in our BetMGM Bonus Code coverage.
Key Findings
- Kentucky ranks No. 1 with the highest recent theft-reporting rate in the country, giving it the strongest overall likelihood of porch piracy.
- California climbs into second place, combining a high implied risk score with more than 15,000 home-based larceny-theft incidents.
- Alaska places third, where elevated reporting levels push statewide risk higher despite a relatively small number of total incidents.
- North Dakota and Texas round out the top five, with North Dakota’s strong reporting rate and Texas’ nation-leading volume of residential thefts.
- Iowa and Nebraska each report a 10% victim rate, placing both states comfortably inside the top 10.
- Vermont ranks eighth, where high victim share and steady larceny-theft activity elevate risk in a small state.
- Washington and Oregon now join the top ten, driven by high search interest and thousands of home-based thefts each year.
Top 10 Worst States for Porch Pirates (2025)
1. Kentucky
Kentucky ranks first due to the highest recent theft-reporting rate in the country.
- Search interest: 8 porch-pirate–related Google searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 12% of residents had a package stolen in the last 3 months
- Home theft incidents: 1,983 larceny-thefts from residences (2023–24)
- Implied theft probability: 29.8%
2. California
California climbs to second place, posting more than 15,000 home-theft incidents and a strong overall risk score.
- Search interest: 16 porch-pirate–related searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 6% of residents had a package stolen in the last 3 months
- Home theft incidents: 15,311 cases
- Implied theft probability: 27.6%
3. Alaska
Alaska’s high reporting rate drives its probability score despite having relatively few total theft incidents.
- Search interest: 12 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 10%
- Home theft incidents: 89 cases
- Implied theft probability: 26.7%
4. North Dakota
North Dakota ranks fourth, driven by a high percentage of residents reporting stolen packages.
- Search interest: 8 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 11%
- Home theft incidents: 695 cases
- Implied theft probability: 26.6%
5. Texas
Texas records the largest number of residential thefts in the United States.
- Search interest: 9 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 5%
- Home theft incidents: 26,293 cases
- Implied theft probability: 25.8%
6. Nebraska
Nebraska posts a high victim share and more than 1,600 home-theft cases.
- Search interest: 9 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 10%
- Home theft incidents: 1,644 cases
- Implied theft probability: 25.4%
7. Iowa
Iowa’s strong reporting rate and nearly 1,800 home-theft cases place it seventh.
- Search interest: 7 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 10%
- Home theft incidents: 1,807 cases
- Implied theft probability: 24.0%
8. Vermont
A high percentage of residents reporting stolen packages lifts Vermont into the top ten.
- Search interest: 11 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 9%
- Home theft incidents: 484 cases
- Implied theft probability: 23.7%
9. Washington
Washington combines high search interest with more than 4,000 home-theft cases each year.
- Search interest: 24 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 4%
- Home theft incidents: 4,214 cases
- Implied theft probability: 22.6%
10. Oregon
Oregon rounds out the top ten with strong search volume and nearly 3,000 home-theft incidents.
- Search interest: 25 searches per 100,000 residents
- Recent theft reports: 3%
- Home theft incidents: 2,994 cases
- Implied theft probability: 20.2%
Conclusion
Package theft remains a widespread issue nationwide, and this year’s data shows that risk levels don’t always follow population size.
Large states like Texas, Florida, and California continue to report thousands of residential thefts. However, smaller states such as Kentucky, North Dakota, and Vermont demonstrate how high reporting rates can elevate statewide risk.
For residents, simple precautions — such as delivery instructions, secure drop-off points, and home surveillance — can help reduce exposure. As online shopping continues to grow, monitoring these patterns provides a clearer view of where porch piracy is rising and where extra vigilance may be needed.
These emerging risk signals also mirror the way user interest builds in other fast-moving categories, where shifts in search behaviour often appear long before official reporting catches up — as seen in the growing attention around new prediction market apps.
Expert Insight
According to a consumer security analyst at The Action Network, this year’s data highlights a notable shift in where package theft is most concentrated.
“Porch piracy used to be viewed as a big-city problem, but the numbers now show a much broader pattern. States with smaller populations are experiencing disproportionately high reporting rates, which means residents there are often more likely to feel the impact of each incident. That’s why places like Kentucky and North Dakota rise to the top of the rankings.”
The analyst also notes that search behaviour often mirrors real-world concerns before official crime data reflects them.
“When we see sustained increases in searches for terms like ‘package stolen’ or ‘porch pirates,’ it tells us people are actively looking for guidance after something has happened. Search trends serve as an early warning system, revealing emerging risk areas well before annual crime statistics are released.”
Tips for Combating Porch Pirates
Use secure delivery options. Opt for in-locker delivery, pick-up points, or retailer collection counters when available. These keep packages out of sight.
Provide specific delivery instructions. Ask carriers to place packages behind planters, side gates, or other concealed areas rather than in plain view.
Install a doorbell camera or home security system. Visible cameras act as deterrents and provide evidence if theft occurs.
Schedule deliveries for when you’re home. Many retailers now let you choose delivery windows or send alerts when the driver is nearby.
Use package tracking tools. Real-time tracking helps minimize how long packages sit unattended.
Consider a locking parcel box. Weatherproof, secure boxes can be placed near your entryway and accessed only by you.
Ask a neighbor for help. If you're away, a trusted neighbor can collect packages or alert you immediately.
Hold items at the carrier’s facility. USPS, UPS, FedEx, and Amazon all allow customers to pick up packages directly.
Methodology
The Porch Pirate Index measures package-theft risk using three statewide indicators.
First, we analyzed 12 months of Google search activity for terms such as “amazon package stolen,” “porch pirates,” and “stolen package.” Search totals were adjusted to reflect the number of porch-pirate-related searches per 100,000 residents.
Next, we used survey data showing the percentage of residents in each state who reported a stolen package within the last three months. This metric carries the greatest weight in the model.
We also included residential larceny-theft incidents from the FBI Crime Data Explorer as a proxy for home-area package theft.
All three metrics were normalized to a 0–100 scale and combined using the study’s weighting system: 50% resident reports, 25% search interest, and 25% residential larceny-theft. The resulting Implied Probability Score reflects each state’s relative risk level.
Sources
- Google Keyword Planner (12-month average search volume)
- Capital One Shopping – Package Theft Statistics
- Security.org Package Theft Survey
- FBI Crime Data Explorer
- Full Porch Pirate Index 2025 Dataset (Google Sheets)
