MLB Odds, Picks: Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Game 4 Betting Preview (October 12)

MLB Odds, Picks: Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Game 4 Betting Preview (October 12) article feature image
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich

Brewers vs. Braves Odds

Brewers Odds +115
Braves Odds -135
Over/Under 8.5
Time 5:15 p.m. ET
TV TBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It is win-or-go-home for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The situation is dire for the Brew Crew but that is why they play the games, right? The Atlanta Braves have multiple reasons to feel good: They lead the series, have been competitive against one of the best rotations this season, and the Game 3 winner in a tied best-of-five series wins the series nearly 75% of the time.

Can The Brewers Score Any Runs?

Two runs in three games and both runs coming in one inning is an encapsulation of how hot-and-cold the Brewers’ offense has been at times in 2021. Milwaukee is slashing .176/.242/.242 against the Braves and are 0-for-16 with runners in scoring position.

Simply put, the Brewers need to hit and score runs. Only Willy Adames has more than two hits among Milwaukee starters.

Eric Lauer is likely charged with getting the Brewers in place to force a Game 5. The 26-year old has been vital at the back-end of the Brewers’ rotation as they dealt with injuries and COVID-19.

He finished 2021 with a 3.27 road ERA and pitched well no matter the batter handedness. Lauer allowed a .635 OPS to lefties and .641 to righties. Lefties also only hit one home run over 27 1/3 innings pitched.

Like a broken record, the Brewers’ pitching will be the reason they stay in this game. It is up to the hitters to force Game 5 back at home.

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Braves Have Gotten Opportune Hits

Editor’s note: Charlie Morton will start on short rest for Atlanta today instead of Huascar Ynoa.

Atlanta’s bats have done enough at the right times to give their team a 2-1 series lead. They have rightfully struggled against Milwaukee’s top three starters but took advantage of a pitching change at an opportune time to score Game 3 and one bad stretch of pitching in Game 2 to win. That all it takes when two pitching staffs are throwing well.

Atlanta only has three more hits than Milwaukee but has five more runs.

Huascar Ynoa has had a season. He went from depth pitcher, to dominant starter, to goober, to important starter during the stretch run. That goober hand injury happened in Milwaukee.

Ynoa had consistency issues in September that led to some poor outings, but his swing-and-miss stuff is real. He had 34 strikeouts in six September outings (29 IP). Ynoa also thrived when pitching at the friendly confines.

His 2.88 home ERA is almost twice as good as his 5.49 road mark. Considering the Braves were unsure of his role heading into postseason play, a home start with Drew Smyly as Ynoa’s back-up is one way to take pressure off the 23-year old.

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Brewers-Braves Pick

Atlanta has put on a show in the second half of the season and is on the verge of the NLCS with a new outfield and a return to form from some of its best players. Expecting a win today considering each game has been decided by three runs or fewer is not the way to bet this game, especially with Atlanta at -135.

The Brewers at +115 looks enticing but the pressure is squarely on Milwaukee’s bats to keep this series alive. The Brewers’ hot-and-cold offense makes it difficult to pull the trigger on an outright win.

What we do know is that both pitching staffs and bullpens are strong. Game 4 will have an “all hands on deck” look with a day off ahead of Game 5, if necessary. Both managers will do whatever is necessary to get a pitching advantage and keep the game low-scoring (and hopefully under four hours).

Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-105, bet to -120)

Author’s Note: With news that Charlie Morton will start today instead of Huascar Ynoa, the bet recommendation remains with a pick on the under.

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