Texas Rangers 2019 Betting Odds, Preview: A Team With No Identity and a Reclamation Rotation

Texas Rangers 2019 Betting Odds, Preview: A Team With No Identity and a Reclamation Rotation article feature image
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Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports.

  • The Rangers have been a largely successful team for the 2010 decade, but appear to have entered a rebuilding phase.
  • Led by Mike Minor, their rotation is full of veterans who lack a high ceiling and are old or coming off an injury.
  • Without Adrian Beltre, their offense will need someone new to lead the charge and Joey Gallo and his towering home runs fit the bill.

Original analysis published on Feb. 22. 

The Rangers are coming off their second 67-win season of the decade. After they failed to reach 70 wins in 2014, they won 88 games and took home the AL West the following year.

Don’t expect that in 2019.

The Rangers and Mariners will likely duke it out for fifth place in the division this year. Either one is capable of a sub-70 win season, with 80 wins looking like a tall task.

Jeff Bannister was canned at the end of the 2018 season and Chris Woodward will take over as manager after spending the past three years as Dodgers third base coach. Have fun, Chris!

2018 Results

  • Record: 67-95 (-10.4 units), 80-82 ATS (-8.5 units)
  • Over/Under Record: 76-68-8
  • Preseason World Series Odds: 200-1
  • Win Total: 75
  • Most Profitable Starter: Yovani Gallardo (10-8, +4.0 units)

Though they won just 67 games and went eight games under their win total, the Rangers weren’t all that unprofitable compared to some other teams.

Texas had a league-average offense, but allowed 5.23 runs per game — tied for second worst in the league behind the Orioles. Their record was slightly unlucky based on their run differential, but 67 wins … 71 wins … who really cares at that point? They probably wish they were even more unlucky to help them out in the draft order.

2019 Odds

  • World Series Odds: +100000
  • Division Odds: +6000
  • Win Total O/U: 71.5
  • Playoff Odds: Make +2000, Miss -10000

Every single team that won fewer than 70 games last year has a win total that is higher this year and the Rangers are no exception. With a win total of 71.5, oddsmakers even like them a little bit more than the 89-win Mariners, who will be much, much worse this year.

Similar to the Mariners, I find nothing appealing about any of the Rangers futures. Their chance of making the playoffs is basically zero in my eyes, Fangraphs has them going slightly over their win total and Baseball Prospectus has them going slightly under.

Unless you have some strong opinions about some aspect of this club that I don’t see, there’s not much worth looking at in terms of their futures.

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