The inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge kicks off this weekend at EchoPark Speedway (formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway) with the Quaker State 400 on Saturday night (7:00 p.m. ET, TNT).
For the next five weeks, 32 drivers will compete head-to-head over five races at five different tracks, with the tournament winner taking home a cool $1 million.
Eligibility was determined by being in the top 32 in points after the Nashville race, and from there, seeding was determined by the best finish among those drivers over the subsequent three races (Michigan, Mexico City, Pocono), with tiebreaks being the next best finish, and then the point standings.
After all that, the bracket has finally been set, so let's dive into some strategy, and I'll fill out my bracket with brief reasons why — March Madness style.
NASCAR In-Season Challenge Bracket Strategy
Just like picking your bracket for the NCAA Tournament, you should aim to win it all, which can mean getting a bit uncomfortable in some spots with some smart leverage picks.
In this case, we're not only planning ahead for future opponents, but we're also planning for future tracks as different drivers excel at different race crafts.
We start things off at EchoPark Speedway, a 1.5-mile drafting track that produces a lot of unpredictability. This is the round to get creative with your picks, as even in the most predictable of the seven races at EchoPark under the current drafting package, the most predictable race still had about 75% variance in the finishing order when using pre-race stats and loop data to make predictions.
After that, there is the street course at Chicago, a road course at Sonoma, a steeply banked 1-mile concrete oval at Dover, and we cap things off at the famed 2.5-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which plays host to not only IndyCar's Indianapolis 500, but also the Brickyard 400 for the NASCAR Cup Series.
With the street and road course races, we'll also want to take mind of which driver's are focusing on race wins, and which drivers are points racing, as that could put them on either optimal (race-winning) or suboptimal (points racing) strategies, which could be a big leverage spot in some cases.
Keeping all that in mind, it's time to get to my NASCAR In-Season Challenge bracket!
NASCAR In-Season Challenge Bracket Picks
Round 1 – EchoPark
Round 1 kicks off with EchoPark Speedway, a 1.5-mile drafting track where randomness reigns supreme.
(1) Denny Hamlin vs. (32) Ty Dillon
I have Hamlin winning this 66.9% of the time, but I think he'll be picked in a much higher percentage of brackets than that. I also don't fancy him as a street or road course racer, with a best finish of 11th in five races combined at Chicago and Sonoma in the Next Gen car.
That means we could look ahead to his eventual elimination well before the final four so we don't need to buy up the leverage just yet, especially considering Hamlin is 5-0 against Dillon at EchoPark.
The Pick: Hamlin
(16) Kyle Busch vs. (17) Brad Keselowski
This matchup is a true coin flip, with Keselowski and Busch both known as great superspeedway racers of their era. Both have faded a little bit in recent years, but are still strong contenders and either could win the race, let alone their matchup.
My model gives Keselowski a 53/47 edge, but Busch is the favorite in the betting market and would provide us with the leverage we need to knock out Hamlin at Chicago.
The Pick: Busch
(8) Alex Bowman vs. (25) Joey Logano
This might be a great spot to take some leverage as Logano is arguably the best superspeedway racer there is (alongside his Team Penske teammates of Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric).
I have Logano winning this matchup 59.8% of the time, but I fully expect, despite being the seed underdog, that the public will pick Joey Logano at a much higher rate than 60%.
Looking ahead to Chicago, Bowman could point to the race, and Logano has had a mixed bag there in two years, so I could see either being eliminated in the next round. I definitely don't mind if you want to pick Bowman here, but I'll take Logano's 6-1 record against Bowman at EchoPark.
The Pick: Logano
(9) Bubba Wallace vs. (24) Daniel Suarez
This matchup is another coin flip, as both drivers are fantastic at EchoPark but each has a bit of Jekyll-and-Hyde to them as well. The betting line reflects that, as most books have both drivers priced equally.
Overall, Suarez has had the better results, leading the head-to-head at the track by a 5-2 count. In every race, Suarez has avoided calamity, and he's beaten Wallace.
With an eye to the future, I'll take Suarez here.
The Pick: Suarez
(12) John Hunter Nemechek vs. (21) Josh Berry
Perhaps surprisingly, my model has Josh Berry as just over a 2-1 favorite at 66.91% despite being the seed underdog.
Berry, driving the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford Mustang, is aligned with Team Penske, which has produced arguably the three best current superspeedway racers.
JHN, meanwhile, has picked up just one finish better than 21st at the non-chaos drafting tracks of Talladega and EchoPark.
I'll roll with the model here.
The Pick: Berry
(5) Chase Elliott vs. (28) Austin Dillon
The other Dillon brother faces off against NASCAR's most popular driver.
When I say NASCAR's most popular driver, you best believe I'll be fading him at some point as he'll be over-represented in brackets, like the Duke's or UNC's of the world when you're in a bracket pool in the Tar Heel state.
People are also picking Elliott a ton because this bracket sets up perfectly for him. He's 5-1 head-to-head against Dillon at EchoPark. Then he gets comparatively weak road course racers in the next round in Berry or Nemechek, capped off with arguably his best track at Sonoma where he'd be favored against three of the four drivers, and a coinflip against the other.
In a wild scenario, I have Elliott winning exactly 66.91% of the time against Dillon in my 10,000 simulations — the same as the matchup above between Berry and Nemechek.
What you do with Elliott is your single biggest divergence spot of the whole bracket, much like Sean Koerner's Houston/Gonzaga decision this past March.
If you have Elliott winning it all, you'll really need to differentiate elsewhere. Otherwise, you can differentiate here.
The Pick: A. Dillon
(13) Ross Chastain vs. (20) Erik Jones
We essentially have another coin flip between Chastain and Jones, but the market is viewing it quite differently.
As of Thursday morning, DraftKings has Jones as a +170 underdog, but my simulations give Jones a 48.5% chance of advancing to Round 2, and I understand why.
If we look at specifically EchoPark track history, Chastain takes the cake here, leading 5-2 in head to head in finishing position and average running position, and 6-1 in driver rating.
My model also takes into account other drafting tracks, where Jones has run much closer to, or even better than, Chastain, to help build a sample size and provide a fuller picture of a driver's overall drafting prowess.
This is the classic between track history and similar tracks debate.
I don't really have a preference which way you go here, but looking ahead, I'd have both drivers losing to Bell but beating Stenhouse, so your leverage should be predicated on what you do in that matchup.
The Pick: I'm not spoiling the next pick.
(4) Christopher Bell vs. (29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
This matchup also has severe implications for your bracket, especially if you have Elliott eliminated against Dillon like I do.
Christopher Bell is one of the better road course racers in the series and would be heavily favored over Chastain or Jones at Chicago. He'd also be easily favored against three of the four drivers he faces at Sonoma, with the exception being Elliott as a relative coinflip.
But Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a drafting track master, having picked up four career wins all at drafting tracks.
On the surface, you might look at Bell's 5-2 head-to-head record at EchoPark against Stenhouse, but I'd argue these two are pretty close to a coin flip, with Bell slightly favored.
Stenhouse has run a higher percentage of laps in the top 15 than Bell in four of seven races here, and leads Bell in percentage of laps led 4-1-2 (in two races, neither led a lap).
Much like Elliott, I think people will have Bell making a deep run thanks to how the tracks set up for him. But I'm team #RootForChaos, and in a 60/40 spot where the public is probably 70% or more on one side, I'll take the leverage and throw the whole bottom-left portion of the bracket into massive chaos.
As a result, we don't need the extra chaos of picking Jones over Chastain above.
The Pick: Stenhouse Jr. — and Chastain in the above matchup.
(2) Chase Briscoe vs. (31) Noah Gragson
My model has Noah Gragson as a nominal favorite over Briscoe, and fresh off a win at Pocono, I think people will be on Briscoe here, especially if they are too chalky and pick by seeds.
Additionally, Gragson's track record at EchoPark is pretty disastrous, with six major incidents in seven starts. However, the one incident-free start he did have, he beat Briscoe and was the much better driver on the day.
As I outlined on this week's episode of the Running Hot Podcast, Briscoe has a sub-30% top-10 rate in his incident-free drafting track races. Gragson's is right at 50%.
Since I wouldn't have Briscoe making a super-deep run anyway, I'm fine taking the leverage here.
The Pick: Gragson
(15) Ryan Preece vs. (18) William Byron
It might sound crazy that I have Ryan Preece as a 46% winner in this matchup, but Preece leads Byron 3-2 in head-to-head results at EchoPark.
I'd have both Preece and Byron favored over Gragson at Chicago so I'm fine picking whoever you want here.
Since I went so chaotic in the bottom left, I'll cool it off here a bit and choose Byron, who is rightly the favorite. Still, I do think he'll be overpicked in this spot, and I don't hate a Preece pick at all, especially with RFK Racing's newfound confidence in their EchoPark setup.
The Pick: Byron
(7) Ryan Blaney vs. (26) Carson Hocevar
Hocevar has been a divisive figure both on and off the track, and that could make him a popular upset pick against one of the best drafting track racers in Ryan Blaney. Hocevar nearly won the most recent race at EchoPark, losing out to Christopher Bell on a video review when a caution was thrown on the final lap.
But I still have Blaney as a comfortable 74.2% favorite in my model, although I personally think that's a touch too high.
Still, I have faith in Blaney to make fewer mistakes than Hocevar, so I'll eat the chalk here.
The Pick: Blaney
(10) Kyle Larson vs. (23) Tyler Reddick
This is another matchup that has far-reaching implications, as both drivers are excellent road and street course racers and would likely be favored in their next matchup, with at worst a coin flip at Sonoma against Byron.
My model has Larson as a 55.8% favorite, so we're once again in a near coin-flip scenario.
Whichever of these two drivers you pick is probably going to make a deep run, but there's no good rhyme or reason here on which driver you should pick. They've combined for a 57.1% DNF rate at EchoPark, and there's only been one race here where both drivers went incident-free.
That race was earlier this year, where Larson was in that three-wide video review finish with Bell and Hocevar, while Reddick finished 19th.
With my chaotic bottom-left (NASCAR really needs region names for these brackets), I'll roll with Larson here.
The Pick: Larson
(11) Michael McDowell vs. (22) A.J. Allmendinger
In the battle of two road course aces, we also have a spot where both have shown flashes at drafting tracks.
However, McDowell has shown bigger flashes, previously with Front Row Motorsports and the Ford engine and body, which makes him a 2-1 favorite in my model. I think that's a bit too high given his switch to Spire Motorsports with Chevy power.
Additionally, the bottom right portion of the bracket is massively wide open, with almost every driver here capable of performing at road and street courses.
In both of Allmendinger's EchoPark starts, he's had the better driver rating than McDowell, so I'll pick the upset here.
The Pick: Allmendinger
(6) Ty Gibbs vs. (27) Justin Haley
In a battle of two struggling drivers, I think the public will be solidly on Gibbs here, especially with the road courses coming up where he's been strong.
However, Haley has shown flashes at drafting tracks and holds a 3-2 edge over Gibbs at EchoPark, as well as a 7-4 advantage over Gibbs in non-chaos drafting races.
My model makes Gibbs a 60% favorite and a fantastic betting pick to win the tournament at 50-1 odds at FanDuel.
But different formats often require different picks, so while I sprinkle Gibbs to win the tourney, I'll create a natural hedge with Haley here by taking what I think is solid leverage as Gibbs is largely over-picked as people look ahead to two road course races where he could shine.
The Pick: Haley
(14) Zane Smith vs. (19) Austin Cindric
I don't need to get chaotic here, as Cindric is a massive favorite over Smith, and my model agrees, putting Cindric just shy of a 70% winner in this matchup. Cindric could be poised for a deep run in this tournament.
The Pick: Cindric
(3) Chris Buescher vs. (30) Todd Gilliland
Gilliland is in that strong Front Row Motorsports equipment, which has an alliance with Team Penske, and always produces fast drafting track cars, especially in qualifying.
On the other hand, Buescher is the driver with a drafting track win and has easily had the better performance overall this year.
Gilliland leads 4-3 here, and the public should be on Buescher, so I'll grab some leverage with Gilliland in this spot, noting that I'd have Cindric advancing over either driver, since Buescher could very well be in points racing mode at Chicago.
The Pick: Gilliland
Round 2 – Chicago
We've made it to Round 2! Now we'll be analyzing these matchups for the Grant Park 165 on the Streets of Chicago, again with an eye toward the future.
(1) D. Hamlin vs. (16) K. Busch
Busch is 2-0 at Chicago against Hamlin, with two top-10 finishes, while both of Hamlin's results are outside the top 10. Given he also needs a win, Rowdy will be on the optimal strategy at Chicago. At the same time, there's a nonzero chance Hamlin could grab stage points, especially after missing Mexico City, to help elevate him in the regular season standings, where he'd gain more playoff points.
I'd have Busch favored here, and now we get to knock out an over-picked Round 1 pick in Hamlin.
The Pick: Busch
(25) J. Logano vs. (24) D. Suarez
Suarez is the better road course racer and the one guaranteed to be on the optimal strategy. This is a Hamlin-Busch 2.0 spot.
The Pick: Suarez
(21) J. Berry vs. (28) A. Dillon
I've left myself with a pretty funny matchup between two drivers not known for being road course aces.
Since Josh Berry joined the Cup Series full-time in 2024, the best road course finish in the seven races between these two drivers is 19th, achieved by Dillon. But Berry leads the head-to-head 5-2.
This is a truly gross matchup, and I'd have either losing next round anyway, so if you end up with this matchup yourself, pick whoever you want.
I'll take Dillon because I think the strategy is the tiebreaker here. We know he'll be doing his best to finish as high as possible since he needs a win, while Berry could stay out for stage points or even a stage win if the opportunity presents itself.
The Pick: A. Dillon
(13) R. Chastain vs. (29) R. Stenhouse Jr.
Chastain is flat out the better road and street course racer here, so this is an easy pick.
The Pick: Chastain
(31) N. Gragson vs. (18) W. Byron
Byron easily beats Gragson here in a straight-up fight. Incidents and mechanical failures can always happen, but on speed, there's no contest. No need to get cute.
The Pick: Byron
(7) R. Blaney vs. (10) K. Larson
The classic 7/10 matchup, we're going with the 10-seed Kyle Larson to get it done over Blaney.
Larson should be favored at Chicago, where he finished fourth in 2023 and crashed while running third in 2024 in the wet.
The Pick: Larson
(22) A.J. Allmendinger vs. (27) J. Haley
In a battle of former Kaulig Racing teammates, Haley is actually 2-0 against Allmendinger despite Dinger's known road and street course prowess.
We can use that to our advantage here and gain some leverage by taking Haley in this spot.
The Pick: Haley
(19) A. Cindric vs. (30) T. Gilliland
As I mentioned in Round 1, I have Cindric advancing over either opponent here, although it's certainly no guarantee, given that these two teams are tied 1-1 against each other at Chicago.
It's just that I'm already taking a risk by putting Gilliland here, so I don't need to take any more risk.
The Pick: Cindric
Round 3 – Sonoma
After the Streets of Chicago, there are more right turns at Sonoma, where road course racers and strategy will prevail again, just like at Chicago.
(16) K. Busch vs. (24) D. Suarez
I have this matchup as a virtual coin flip, with both drivers needing a win and both being strong at Sonoma.
Both drivers are also coming off coin-flip first-round matchups and decently favored Round 2 matchups.
I say pick whoever you want if you're also picking this matchup in your bracket. Both are also strong at Dover and Indianapolis, and could be surprise picks to win it all.
Because it's slightly more likely Busch makes it here by my model, I'll roll with him, but I love betting Suarez 70-1 to win the whole enchilada at DraftKings, with an eye toward cashing out if he either:
- Faces Rowdy here or
- Faces anyone else at Sonoma, hope he advances to the semifinals and cash out there depending on his matchup for Dover (or let it ride to Indy if the matchup is good and evaluate there).
The Pick: Busch
(28) A. Dillon vs. (13) R. Chastain
Chastain is by far the better road course racer. Move Ross on to the semifinals.
The Pick: Chastain
(18) W. Byron vs. (10) K. Larson
In the battle of two Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammates, I'll take Larson, who has the better Sonoma track record, leading Byron 5-1 in matchups there.
The Pick: Larson
(27) J. Haley vs. (19) A. Cindric
Haley's underdog run ends here (and honestly, probably ended sooner).
Cindric is in the final four.
The Pick: Cindric
Round 4 – Dover
Dover is a 1-mile, steeply banked concrete track where speed and track position are key. Certain drivers tend to excel on both concrete and banked tracks, so they receive a boost here.
(16) K. Busch vs. (13) R. Chastain
This is a matchup between two drivers who excel at Dover.
Chastain leads 3-1 in the head-to-head department and is the driver in this matchup that is favored in his Round 1 pairing.
I'll take the Trackhouse Racing driver here.
The Pick: Chastain
(10) K. Larson vs. (19) A. Cindric
Larson is easily the favorite at Dover, and I'd pick him in any matchup against any driver here.
The Pick: Larson
Round 5 – Indianapolis
Indianapolis is a 2.5-mile track with four corners and relatively flat banking. Its best comparable track is Pocono, which is also 2.5 miles in length with no turns banked above 14 degrees. Speed, track position, and race craft all come into play here.
(13) R. Chastain vs. (10) K. Larson
Larson has a 5-1 record against Chastain at the large, 2.5-mile flat tracks of Pocono and Indianapolis.
In the end, chalk survives the chaos and Larson is your 2025 NASCAR In-Season Challenge million-dollar winner!
The Pick: Larson