2025 Indy 500 Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500

2025 Indy 500 Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500 article feature image
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images. Pictured: Pato O’Ward

Motorsports Christmas is here! The middle leg of the triple-header is the biggest race in the world, the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500 (12:00 p.m. ET, FOX).

The Greatest Spectacle in Racing, as it's known, is about as wide open this year as I can ever remember, and with cooler temps than Speedway, Indiana has had in many years on race day, it's going to be a fast-paced, but potentially treacherous race.

My Indy 500 preview piece is a great place to start when building a betting card. In that writeup, I have a full 33-driver breakdown with my analysis, stats, and observations for each driver, as well as my predicted finishing order.

Those thoughts largely shape my betting card, which is in full below, so let's get to it!

Indy 500 Best Bets, Picks

Nick Giffen's Indy 500 Betting Card

Early bets:

  • Honda to win +125 (made on May 12th as tracked in the Action App at Caesars) — 1 unit
  • David Malukas to Win (made on May 22nd on Running Hot, +2500 at ESPN Bet) — 0.2 units
  • David Malukas Top-3 Finish (made on May 22nd on Running Hot, +600 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units
  • Parlay:
    • Scott McLaughlin Finishing Position Worse than 5.5
    • David Malukas' Finishing Position Better than 11.5 (made on May 22nd on Running Hot
    • +200 at GridRival) — 1 unit
  • Andretti Global Winning Team (made on May 22nd on Running Hot, +950 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units
    • If you missed out on that bet, I'd recommend the following as even better value on the top three Andretti Global Drivers
      • Kyle Kirkwood to win (+3500 at Caesars) — 0.175 units
      • Marcus Ericsson to win (+3500 at Caesars) — 0.175 units
      • Colton Herta to win (+4000 at Caesars) — 0.15 units
    • That combination will give you 11.3 units profit on Herta and 11.6 units profit on either Kirkwood or Ericsson for a half unit total risk.
  • *Pato O'Ward Top Chevy (given out on May 22nd on Running Hot, +400 at Hard Rock)

*Note: Nick does not have Hard Rock Sportsbook, but gave the O'Ward bet out for podcast listeners that do have Hard Rock Sportsbook.  

Race Day Bets:

  • Pato O'Ward to Win (+500 at Bet365 and widely available) — 0.5 units
  • Pato O'Ward Top-3 Finish (+170 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
  • David Malukas over Christian Lundgaard (-115 at BetMGM) — 1.15 units
  • Kyle Kirkwood Top-10 Finish (+125 at Caesars and BetMGM) — 1 unit
  • Felix Rosenqvist over Josef Newgarden (+130 at Bet365) — 1 unit
  • Marcus Ericsson Top-5 Finish (+400 at Bet365) — 0.5 units
  • Kyle Kirkwood over Colton Herta (-110 at Caesars and DraftKings) — 1.1 units
  • Kyle Larson over Robert Shwartzman (-110 at BetMGM) — 1.1 units
  • Parlay: Jack Harvey Finishing Position +1.5 vs. Ryan Hunter-Reay, Marcus Ericsson Finishing Position -1.5 vs. Christian Lundgaard (+200 at GridRival) — 1 unit
  • Parlay: Ed Carpenter Finishing Position +4.5 vs. Helio Castroneves, David Malukas Finishing Position -2.5 vs. Robert Shwartzman (+200 at GridRival) — 1 unit
  • *Trifecta Boxes at DraftKings
    • O'Ward/Palou/Ericsson +11000 — 0.05 units
    • O'Ward/Palou/Kirkwood +15000 — 0.05 units
    • O'Ward/Dixon/Kirkwood +18000 — 0.05 units
    • *Note: These aren't good values at all, but it's the Indy 500, so I'm going to have a bit of fun.

Indy 500 Analysis

For most of the bets, you can refer to my 33-driver breakdown, Indy 500 betting guide for the analysis, but I'll provide context on a few bets here.

Rosenqvist over Newgarden

My finishing position rankings have Newgarden third and Rosenqvist 10th, but Rosenqvist is docked a bit by potential incident rate; he probably has a top five to seven car on speed, which brings him much closer to Newgarden on true speed.

Newgarden, meanwhile, arguably has the best car, but he has to come from the back of the field and must overcome poor pit stall selection and traffic while avoiding any mistakes or incidents that others around him may make as he's coming through the field.

Since the two drivers are closer on speed than my finishing position rankings indicate, and there's enough variance in Newgarden's outcome, I'm willing to bite at solid plus-money odds.

GridRival Parlays

On the GridRival app, these two parlays each feature two head-to-head matchups in finishing position.

Jack Harvey must finish better than, or within one spot worse than, teammate Ryan Hunter-Reay, while Marcus Ericsson must finish at least two places better than Christian Lundgaard.

I like Harvey here after Hunter-Reay heads to a three-year-old backup car that was to be used for pit stop practice, while I rate Ericsson much higher than Lundgaard in my final rankings.

Similarly, I have Carpenter ranked within 4.5 places of Castroneves and have Malukas well above Shwartzman in my projected finishing order.

Trifecta Boxes

For these bets, the three drivers listed must finish in first, second, and third in any order.

Pato O'Ward is my personal race favorite, but it's pretty close between him and Palou. Dixon is Palou's teammate and has six top-three finishes in his last 18 Indy 500 starts.

Ericsson and Kirkwood are two strong Andretti Global cars that are very happy with their cars in race trim and could displace the Penske cars, given the doubts about all three (penalties to Newgarden and Power who start from the back of the grid, and a Saturday crash and backup car for McLaughlin).

About the Author
Nick is a predictive analyst at Action Network, Mathematics Ph.D., NASCAR bettor, and a three-time NASCAR DFS Main Event finalist.

Follow Nick Giffen @rotodoc on Twitter/X.

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