Cowboys vs. Saints Odds, Picks, Predictions: An NFL Expert’s Guide To Betting Thursday Night Football Week 13
Getty Images. Pictured: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, Saints QB Taysom Hill
- With Alvin Kamara and both of New Orleans' starting tackles ruled out, where does the value on Thursday Night Football lie?
- Our expert updates his over/under pick based on the latest Cowboys vs. Saints odds below.
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
There is a ton of uncertainty for both teams heading into Thursday Night football battle, so let’s take a closer look at each of their situations then dive into how I’m betting this game.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Cowboys vs. Saints Injury Report
- WR Cedrick Wilson (ankle): Out
- WR Amari Cooper (reserve/COVID-19): Questionable
- WR Malik Turner (illness): Questionable
- DE Marcus Davenport (shoulder): Out
- DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (ankle): Out
- LB Kaden Elliss (hamstring): Out
- RB Alvin Kamara (knee): Questionable
- T Ryan Ramczyk (knee): Questionable
- T Terron Armstead (knee): Questionable
Cowboys vs. Saints Matchup
|Cowboys Offense||DVOA Rank||Saints Defense|
|Cowboys Defense||DVOA Rank||Saints Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Cowboys’ Coaching Absences
The Cowboys have placed six coaches on the COVID list and won’t be on the sideline this Thursday night. That includes head coach Mike McCarthy, meaning defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will take over as acting head coach.
The Bears and Cardinals didn’t have issues when their head coaches were forced to miss games earlier this season. And considering the five coaches (outside of McCarthy) are involved with the offensive line, special teams, and strength and conditioning, I’m not expecting their absences to impact the outcome of this game substantially.
The Cowboys will also be welcoming back their top two receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper.
Saints’ Injury Uncertainties
The Saints have yet to officially name a starting quarterback as of writing, but reports indicate that Taysom Hill is set to replace Trevor Siemian. They are also hoping to get back Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, so I’m expecting the Saints to have a run-heavy game plan if Hill, Kamara and Ingram are all ready to go.
That said, LT Terron Armstead and RT Ryan Ramczyk remain questionable. If both are ruled out, it will hurt how effectively the Saints can run the ball.
Cowboys vs. Saints Picks, Predictions
Update (noon ET on Thursday): With Alvin Kamara and both starting tackles ruled out for Thursday night, I’m now projecting this over/under at 45.5 points and would bet the under down to the key number of 47 — but 46.5 or lower is a pass.
Given the uncertainties surrounding both teams as of writing, I’m staying away from this spread — I’m in line with the market as I have the Cowboys favored by 4.5 points.
That said, I do see value on the under.
As I mentioned earlier, I expect the Saints to have a run-heavy game plan if they end up going with Hill as the starter, which will help keep the high-scoring Cowboys offense on the sideline and shorten the game. But if the Cowboys can build a lead — which is very likely considering they’re 5-point favorites — it’ll be challenging for the Saints to mount a comeback against a Cowboys defense that ranks fourth in DVOA against the pass.
On the flip side, if the Cowboys revert to a run-heavy game plan when they have the lead, they will likely struggle given the Saints rank first in DVOA against the run.
I’m projecting this total closer to 46 points, so I like locking in this under at 47.5, but it’s critical to bet it sooner than later considering 47 is a key number and further clarity on injuries will only lower the total. For example, if Hill starts and Armstead and/or Ramczyk are ruled out, the line will likely drop to 46-46.5 by kickoff (check real-time NFL odds here).
Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to: 47
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