Steelers vs. Vikings Odds, Predictions, Picks: NFL Expert’s Betting Guide For Week 14 Thursday Night Football

Steelers vs. Vikings Odds, Predictions, Picks: NFL Expert's Betting Guide For Week 14 Thursday Night Football NFL Odds: Steelers vs. Vikings

Last week, the Steelers came away with a 20-19 win over the Ravens thanks to John Harbaugh aggressively going for a 2-point attempt that failed instead of kicking the PAT to force overtime.

Winning one-score games has been a running theme for the Steelers all season as they’re now 5-1-1 in such contests. We should expect teams to win roughly half of their one-score games though, so any time one strays too far from a .500 record in such games, it creates potential buy-low and sell- high opportunities.

In the Steelers’ case, their overall 6-5-1 record creates a sell-high opportunity as my "expected record" pins them closer to a 5-6 team.

The Vikings, meanwhile, have been on the opposite side of one-score variance as they’ve gone 4-6 in such games. Their latest one-score defeat came at the hands of the previously-winless Lions thanks to an 11-yard touchdown pass from Jared Goff at the end of regulation that sealed last week's 29-27 score. The public perception of the Vikings has likely hit rock bottom after that loss, but they’re playing much better than their 5-7 record indicates — my “expected record” has them closer to 9-3, making them a clear "buy low."

Steelers vs. Vikings Matchup

A Potentially Misleading Injury Narrative

The public perception of this injury report likely favors the Steelers, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

Adam Thielen getting ruled out is undoubtedly the splashiest headline as he is worth around a full point to the spread, but the Vikings can lean on Justin Jefferson — one of the NFL’s top wide receivers — even more in Thielen's stead. And there's a chance that both RB Dalvin Cook and LT Christian Darrisaw will return for this primetime matchup, which would be a big boost to the offense.

The Vikings are also welcoming back LB Eric Kendricks after a one-game absence. He's the heart of their defense, and it's fair to wonder whether they would have been able to pull out a win last week against the Lions had he been active.

Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense will still be without NT Isaiah Buggs and CB Joe Haden.

LG B.J. Finney has also been ruled out, and with 71.4 PFF grade, he's the Steelers' top-graded offensive lineman of the season. In addition, G/T Joe Haeg remains on the COVID list, meaning they'll have to test their depth and give John Leglue his first career start on Thursday night. That could emerge as the main storyline if he struggles, as the Steelers' offensive line has been shaky for much of the season.

NFL Pick: Steelers vs. Vikings

With 51% of the bets and 72% of the money on the Steelers (check real-time public betting data here), I’ll fade the public and go with the Vikings at -3 — they’re playing much better than their record suggests and should survive without Thielen (for at least this one game) thanks to Jefferson.

Plus, the market is likely overlooking the fact the Vikings will welcome back Kendricks while the Steelers will have to shake up their offensive line by starting Leglue for the first time in his career.

I'm projecting the Vikings closer to -4.5, but I would only bet them at -3 considering betting them at -3.5 would expose me to a loss in the most likely outcome of this game: The Vikings winning by three.

Pick: Vikings -3 | Bet to: -3