Prediction markets have captivated the country lately, with national platforms such as Kalshi gaining Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval to propel their popularity to new heights. While political outcomes and real-world events have dominated the headlines for Kalshi, reality TV prediction markets around hits such as "Dancing with the Stars" and "Survivor" have also started exploding in popularity.
Let's take a closer look at everything you need to know about the quickly expanding Kalshi reality TV prediction markets.
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Most Popular Reality TV Markets on Kalshi
Reality TV prediction markets on Kalshi have seen tremendous growth in 2025, as they continue to transform what was once casual, entertainment-only viewing into trades available nationwide via event contracts. Since the launch of the market early in 2025, the reality TV markets on Kalshi's volume continue to rise at an exponential pace.
As a whole, Kalshi has reported over $50 billion in total volume so far this year, a gigantic leap from $300 million in 2024. Traders love the unpredictability that unscripted dramas such as reality TV present, where users can trade on everything from episode outcomes to season-long champions via event contracts.
Early in the market's development, shows like Love Island Games drew attention, as traders could trade on who would be eliminated from the romantic pairings. Since then, the market has continued to develop, with the primary focus on four shows driving the frenzy and volume, and prices skyrocketing.
Let's take a closer look at the four shows at the center of Kalshi's reality TV prediction markets, which have drawn interest from both casual traders and some institutional investors.
Survivor
The OG of reality TV, CBS's "Survivor", is now in its 49th season and remains a cornerstone of the genre in the US. With markets on Kalshi for users to trade, "Survivor" blends strategy, alliances, and challenges, making it ideal for traders who think they have an edge. First airing in 2000, the theme of the show is pitting contestants against one another in remote wilderness (or island) settings, with immunity idols, tribal councils, and immunity challenges dictating survival (and advancement).
With season 49 debuting in September 2025, the show is a prime example of America's obsession with reality TV, as the cast is split across 18 players to start each season, divided into tribes. A perfect setup for trading: each player and tribe faces twists and turns throughout each season, creating volatile markets for users to trade.
Prices fluctuate after every episode as the game evolves, and Kalshi currently offers a plethora of markets, including the overall winner, next elimination, and even trades such as host Jeff Probst's quips post elimination. With season 49 still unfolding and who will win up for trading, total trading volume surpassed $15,000 following an episode the week of October 20.
Some key players still in the mix are Savannah Louie, Sophi Balerdi, Rizo Velovic, and Drea Wheeler, each of whom you can make a trade on to win the game. As with all Kalshi markets, prices fluctuate based on show outcomes and public speculation, with 24/7 action.
Dancing With the Stars
Now in its 34th season, "Dancing with the Stars" (DWTS) has entered the mainstream reality TV market, with offerings on Kalshi popping up this year. Traders can now trade on outcomes from DWTS, which pairs celebrities with each other to impress a panel of judges via dance-offs.
Hosted by Alfonso Ribeiro and Julianne Hough on ABC and Disney+, DWTS blends glamour, star power, and dancing skills, leading to massive audiences and now, a trading frenzy. This season, some of the leading teams include Dylan Efron/Daniela Karagach and Andy Richter/Emma Slater, with the overall winner being decided on Nov. 26, 2025.
With more than $90,000 in trading volume every week, this season is approaching the $500,000 mark as fans are putting their money to the test, jumping into odds with prices fluctuating after each weekly show. The two primary markets are the overall winner and the next elimination, with some leaders to win it all being Robert Irwin, Whitney Leavitt, and Alix Earle.
The Amazing Race
Another reality TV show market available to trade on Kalshi is the uber-popular "The Amazing Race", now in its 38th season on TV. The show is based on teams of two traveling the globe with detours currently across Europe. The show challenges each team's merit while they navigate the streets in a test of smarts, speed, and stamina.
Broadcast on CBS, the Emmy-winning franchise has captivated America for decades, and Kalshi now posts odds for traders to win real money based on their predictions every week. Along the way, teams solve for clues, complete challenges called Roadblocks and Pit Stops, all in an effort to avoid elimination. With eight teams left in the latest season as of Oct. 27, 2025, "The Amazing Race" offers traders markets, including who will win and who will be eliminated each week.
As of today, weekly volume in the "The Amazing Race" winners market has surpassed $4,500, with total trades just shy of $25,000 for the season. Some of the leaders in the clubhouse to win the event are Jas and Jag Bains, Tucker, and Eric Des Lauriers. Appealing to traders across the country, "The Amazing Race" appeals to risk takers who think they can read people and their ability to travel.
The Golden Bachelor
Running its second season starting in early 2026, "The Golden Bachelor" has captivated the reality TV space as a heartfelt spin-off to ABC's "The Bachelor." In this iteration, women over 60 court male suitors over 60, featuring rose ceremonies and fantasy suites. Debuting in 2023 with host Gerry Turner, the show takes on the topic of late-life love life, and resonated with fans according to view (and now trading) data.
Kalshi forecasts markets now includes "The Golden Bachelor" winners market, with initial trading volume at about $2,500 per week. While this is low compared to the aforementioned heavyweights, the month-over-month response has been rising, and Kalshi is now projecting close to $50,000 in volume by the time the finale comes around.
As "The Golden Bachelor" market continues to grow on Kalshi, traders continue to buy and sell contracts based on age-positive storylines.
If you're interested in learning more about other Kalshi prediction markets, be sure to check out our Spotify Top Songs on Kalshi and Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets.
How Does Trading Reality TV Prediction Markets Work on Kalshi?
Trading on Kalshi's reality TV prediction markets is fully regulated and relatively straightforward, offering casual users a chance to capitalize on their knowledge of the shows and more serious traders an opportunity to hedge against what might happen in traditional financial markets. In the prediction markets model, users can profit via simple yes/no contracts by using their insights into a show to forecast weekly or season-long outcomes.
The first step is signing up for an account on Kalshi.com and then verifying their account, which means submitting photo identification to meet the platform's regulated standards. From there, you will then find your account via bank transfer or debit card, with minimums starting at just $1. Once your account is set up, head to the Entertainment page to find markets such as "Who Will Win The Amazing Race?" or "Will Savannah Louie Win Survivor?".
With contracts priced from 1¢ to 99¢ based on market sentiment on what might happen, the exchange is meant to serve as a proxy for implied probability, based on available market data. For example, a 25¢ "Yes" contract implies the probability of that event outcome happening is 25%. Users can then buy or sell out of their position, all the way up until the market "settling", i.e., the event coming to an end.
With that in mind, be strategic about when you buy and sell over time, making sure you are best positioned to grow your profits based on the outcome of each trade. If it's your first time using an exchange like Kalshi, make sure you start small, building positions over time as you expand your understanding of how things work. When first starting out with the Kalshi exchange, keep your exposure small and take small positions as you build the discipline to get a hang of things.
Action Network's Reality TV Prediction Markets Tips for Kalshi Users
We've laid out the basics of the astronomical rise of the reality TV prediction markets on Kalshi, covering everything from "Survivor" to DWTS. With volumes of these markets now routinely crossing into the high five figures, let's take a closer look at a few tips we've aggregated to capitalize on these platforms, predicting event outcomes in the future:
- Be Contrarian: On platforms such as Kalshi, event contracts heavily favor public sentiment and what "the masses" think will happen. Look to capitalize on long shots while avoiding the herd mentality will help you find cheaper prices.
- Track Episode Events: Monitor challenges within episodes, such as Survivor's tribal council, to understand why lines swing up or down. Buy the dips if you feel like they are temporary.
- Sift Through the Noise: With so much of reality TV translating to social media, monitor social media channels to find what is hype vs. what will really move the markets. Social media platforms can be tools for finding the right outcomes live.
- Volatility Indicators: There are things you can do within the Kalshi toolset to help with success, such as setting alerts for shifts of X%. With these set, you won't get screwed staying in a position for too long.
