9/10

Kalshi Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets

How They Work

Most people use Rotten Tomatoes to check if a film or TV show is worth the watch. On Kalshi, those same Rotten Tomatoes scores turn into something else: prediction markets where contracts trade on whether critics push a title above or below a set number.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated company where, instead of speculating on politics or economics, the focus is on entertainment. There, traders buy simple yes/no contracts tied to Tomatometer scores. If the outcome hits, the “Yes” side pays $1. If not, the “No” side does. Between those bookends, prices shift as new reviews land and early screenings start to shape the conversation.

Think about a Marvel release: critics might see it on Wednesday, but reviews can’t go live until Thursday at noon when the embargo lifts. The moment it does, dozens of reviews hit Rotten Tomatoes at once, and the market reacts. That’s where a wave of critic reviews can move prices long before settlement.

For example, as of October 2025 you have these 2 rotten tomatoes prediction markets on Kalshi:

  • The Witcher Season 4 has active markets on whether it finishes above 60% or 75%.
  • Black Phone 2 is listed at 45% and 60%, with settlement less than a day after its release.

You can learn more about Kalshi and the Kalshi Promo Code by checking out our review!

How Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets Work

Example of a Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Market on Kalshi

The setup is straightforward:

  • Contracts: Each market is a yes/no outcome, like “Will Tron: Ares land above 65% on Rotten Tomatoes?”
  • Payouts: $1 if you’re right, $0 if you’re not.
  • Settlement: The cutoff is listed on the market page, usually the Monday after release for movies, or the third day after a season premiere or finale for TV.
  • Trading: Contracts move in price until that cutoff, reacting to critic reviews, early festival chatter, or embargo lifts.

It’s speculation with a sports-fan rhythm. Instead of box scores or point spreads, the data comes from critical reception and Rotten Tomatoes updates.

Rotten Tomatoes Scores as Market Data

Why Rotten Tomatoes? The scores are public, update quickly, and come from a mix of outlets and top critics. That makes them a clean settlement point for markets.

  • Tomatometer score: The percentage of positive critic reviews.
  • Certified Fresh: A film or TV season must clear 75% or higher, plus a minimum number of reviews (80 for wide releases, 40 for limited or streaming), and at least 5 Top Critics.
  • Audience Score: Built from people's reviews and “Verified Ratings," but isn’t used to settle Kalshi markets.

Because reviews pile up fast in the days around a release, Rotten Tomatoes prediction markets usually see the most trading right before, and just after, a premiere.

Note: Rotten Tomatoes added new labels in 2024, including the Verified Hot badge for films with a 90%+ Verified Audience Score. However, the setup remains the same: Kalshi contracts are based on the Tomatometer score only, not Popcornmeter scores or audience badges.

The Types of Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets

Rotten Tomatoes: Tomatometer and Popcornmeter ratings

Kalshi doesn’t just post a single line for each release. It lists multiple contracts on how Rotten Tomatoes scores might shake out, which are usually different thresholds for the Tomatometer score.

Tomatometer at the Center

Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes markets hinge on one number: the Tomatometer score. Each contract sets a cutoff (maybe 60%, maybe 75%), and traders take a side on whether the Tomatometer score will clear it at settlement. Remember, Kalshi sticks to Tomatometer for outcomes.

What About Box Office?

You won’t currently find contracts that tie Rotten Tomatoes scores to box office performance. Kalshi has floated ideas about blending the two, but as of September 2025, live markets stick to Rotten Tomatoes thresholds only. If that changes, we’ll update this page.

Which Movies and Series Are Driving Rotten Tomatoes Markets in 2025?

Kalshi keeps its Rotten Tomatoes markets tied to films and shows that already have a built-in spotlight, so think big theatrical releases, buzzy sequels, or streaming debuts with loyal fan bases.

Current Blockbusters on Kalshi

As of September 2025, you’ll find contracts open on:

  • Tron: Ares: listed at multiple cutoffs, testing whether critics buy into the franchise’s return.
  • The Smashing Machine: active thresholds around early critic sentiment.
  • Roofman: indie title with polarizing reviews, which makes the cutoff less predictable.

Streaming Series in Play

TV Shows to bet on | Kalshi

It’s not just films. TV also shows up when the titles are high profile:

  • Regretting You: a buzzy streaming debut with resolution just days after the premiere.
  • One Battle After Another: a fresh TV title where early reviews could swing the first posted score.

These film and TV show markets capture what fans are already talking about on social media and YouTube, only here, those opinions show up as prices traders can act on.

Why Rotten Tomatoes Scores Work for Prediction Markets

Want the simple answer? They’re straightforward, public, and hard to dispute. A Tomatometer score is just the percentage of critic reviews marked positive, and that number updates fast as outlets and top critics publish, so contracts react in real time.

Also, culturally, scores are already debated nonstop. Whether it’s a YouTube channel breaking down the latest Marvel release or fans talking on their X's accounts, everyone has a take. Kalshi just gives those takes structure: instead of a hot-take thread, it’s a yes/no line with a clear outcome.

The Stock Market Feel of Entertainment Trading

These entertainment contracts move like the stock market: instead of quarterly earnings, you’re watching a film or TV show hit theaters or streaming. Momentum matters here too. A wave of positive reviews out of a festival can swing sentiment the same way a big upset moves a betting line.

Some traders even blend film contracts into a larger set of prediction markets that includes politics or economic data. Different assets, same idea: you’re trading on future events.

Where Fandom Meets Speculation

That crossover is what makes these markets stick.

  • Fans who argue over whether a sequel deserves to be Certified Fresh can take a side.
  • Traders who usually track inflation get a pop-culture contract with the same $1 cap.
  • Casual viewers who follow box office opinions online see their ideas reflected in live prices.

It’s not about guarantees either; every contract carries risk. But for anyone who already debates rotten tomatoes scores, this format makes those conversations tradable through contracts.

Responsible Speculation on Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets

Example of Roofman's rulebooks for betting on it.

Like any form of speculation, there’s risk. Contracts on Kalshi are capped at $1 per side and regulated in the U.S., which means outcomes are monitored and tied to official Rotten Tomatoes scores. That structure is what separates these prediction markets from unregulated entertainment betting.

A smart approach means:

  • Setting a budget and sticking to it.
  • Treating rotten tomatoes prediction markets as a way to track critical reception, not a guaranteed payday.
  • Accepting that film critics and audience reviews don’t always line up, even when the buzz feels one-sided.

Kalshi also publishes clear rulebooks for each market. Every contract lists the exact cutoff date and time, so traders know the moment a score locks and which outcome will resolve.

Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets in Context

These contracts aren’t replacing reviews, box office talk, or fan debates. They sit alongside them, another lens for following a film or TV show. When a title like Tron: Ares or The Witcher season drop hits, people argue about whether it’ll go Certified Fresh or sink. On Kalshi, that same argument has a listed line and a set resolution point.

Right now, entertainment markets are still a small slice of the platform compared to categories like world-famous sports or the economy, but they show how flexible prediction markets can be. If you’ve ever scrolled through YouTube or a group chat where friends argued about Rotten Tomatoes scores, you’ll recognize the energy here, only this time, it plays out in live prices with a $1 cap and real risk.

If you're interested in other Kalshi prediction markets like Taylor Swift, Spotify, or even Grand Theft Auto 6, check out our guides!

Virginia Gandolfo

Virginia Gandolfo is a writer with over six years of experience creating thoughtful, audience-focused content. She has worked across industries like cryptocurrency, sports betting, dental care, and more, specializing in making complex topics easy to understand. Her goal is to create content that speaks to readers first, then seamlessly aligns with SEO.

More from Virginia Gandolfo
Kalshi: Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets FAQs
How do Rotten Tomatoes markets settle?

Each contract lists a cutoff date and time (usually the Monday after a release or a few days into a TV run). At that moment, Kalshi locks the Tomatometer score showing on Rotten Tomatoes and resolves the market. Audience Score, Verified Hot, or Popcornmeter ratings don’t factor in, though they do influence the final Tomatometer score.

Are these markets betting?

Not in the sportsbook sense. Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated company where contracts are capped at $1. You’re trading on critic reviews the way other bettors trade on politics or economic data: it looks like the stock market, just with movies, shows, or even high-profile documentaries as the asset. For users, it’s speculation on how criticism will land, not an open-ended wager.

Do Rotten Tomatoes markets tie to the box office?

No. Contracts resolve only on Tomatometer thresholds. That said, a high score often lifts ticket sales, so traders may keep an eye on opening-week numbers or box office chatter as part of their strategy.

Can I trade on the Audience Score?

Nope. Settlement is tied to the Tomatometer score only. Features like Audience Score, Verified Hot badges, or the Popcornmeter bucket are fun for fan debates, especially among filmmakers and critics, but they don’t decide payouts.