CFL Betting Tip: How to Bet High-Total Games

Most Americans don’t bet on the Canadian Football League. If they did, what factors would they have to consider before placing a wager? Players, matchups, coaching, injuries, line movement, referees, weather, etc. That seems like a lot of work for the knockoff version of the NFL.

But betting on the CFL doesn’t have to be hard. I can prove it to you.

A simple strategy for wagering on CFL totals is to take the under. For many gamblers this is blasphemy, as it is more fun to cheer for points, but the results speak for themselves.

Since 2005, the under in all CFL games has gone 595-507-13 (54.0%) according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor blindly wagering on the under would have returned a profit of $5,843. Not bad.

This straightforward approach to betting the over/under in football games north of the border gets even better when we look at high-total games.

In games with a closing total of more than 52 points, the under has gone 299-210-6 (58.7%) since 2005. Following this strategy has never produced a below .500 season. So why is it profitable to bet the under in high-total games?

For starters, recreational bettors like wagering on the over. In the 1,115 CFL games in our database, a majority of tickets were on the over in 709 (63.6%) games. Oddsmakers anticipate this tendency and will inflate the total, forcing casual bettors to take bad lines. Furthermore, it is easier for a game to go under if there is a high total — that just makes sense.

So while there are many factors to consider before placing a bet, if you don’t have the time, an easy approach to wagering on CFL totals is to take high-total unders. In Week 6 of the 2019 CFL season, three games match this system:

• Calgary Stampeders vs. Toronto Argonauts (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)
• Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Ottawa Redblacks (Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
• Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Eskimos (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)