CFL Sharp Report: Pro Bettors Doubling Down on Montreal-Edmonton Spread, Over/Under
Montreal Alouettes quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. (8). Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on Friday's CFL matchup between the Montreal Alouettes and Edmonton Eskimos (9 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze where the smart money is falling for both the spread and over/under.
With the NBA and NHL seasons officially coming to an end, many sports bettors are experiencing a hollow feeling. We want action. We need action. But what is there to bet on?
The Canadian Football League, of course!
The CFL was founded in 1958 and features a nine-team league (two divisions) playing a 21-week regular-season schedule. Each team plays 18 games broken up by three bye weeks.
Almost all sportsbooks offer CFL odds. And luckily for subscribers, we have several profitable Bet Labs PRO systems that bettors can take advantage of all summer long.
After analyzing Friday night’s matchup between the Montreal Alouettes and Edmonton Eskimos using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on both the spread and the over/under.
>> All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos
Kickoff 9 p.m. ET
Historically, underdogs have provided a massive edge to CFL bettors.
According to our Bet Labs historical database, underdogs have gone 53.9% against the spread (ATS) since 2005, winning +54.74 units with a 5.4% ROI. Road dogs are even more profitable, going 54.4% ATS with +44.9 units won and a 6.4% ROI.
Road dogs have been especially undervalued early in the season, as they’ve gone 60..9% ATS (+36.47 units, 18.7% ROI) in June and July.
The Montreal Alouettes fit the bill tonight.
The Alouettes opened as a 10-point road underdog against the Edmonton Eskimos.
The Eskimos finished last season with a 9-9 record, while the Alouettes were a putrid 5-13. As a result, 65% of spread bets have no problem taking the chalk and backing the home favorite Eskimos.
However, despite receiving the majority of bets, the Eskimos have fallen from -10 to -8. What caused this peculiar line movement?
According to our public betting data, the road dog Alouettes are only receiving 35% of bets but 65% of dollars. This low bets, higher dollars smart money discrepancy signals big sharp wagers grabbing the points, not laying them.
When the line moves at least a half-point toward an underdog, those teams have gone 57.9% ATS since 2005, winning +41.27 units with a 12.9% ROI.
Wiseguys are also getting down on the under in this game.
The total opened at 52, and despite bets being split down the middle, we’ve seen the total drop to 50.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split, aside from a slight juice adjustment a cent or two. So we know this drop was caused by smart money, not public betting.
Historically, unders have been a smart bet in the CFL, winning at a 54.3% clip and producing 60.4 units won with a 5.9% ROI. They’re even better in June when the defense is ahead of the offense (67.8%, +19.17 units, 32.5% ROI).
The under also matches one of our top Bet Labs PRO systems: CFL Home Faves OU. When the home team is a favorite and the total is 50.5 or higher, the under has won 57.9% of the time since 2005 (62.84 units, 12.7% ROI).
CFL is one of the only sports where blindly betting underdogs and unders has been profitable. Wiseguys hope those trends continue tonight in Edmonton.
Sharp Angle: Alouettes (+10 to +8) and Under (52 to 50.5)