Can You Bet an NFL Player to Not Score a Touchdown?
Quarterback Jalen Hurts #2 of the Philadelphia Eagles drives into the end zone to score a 7-yard touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Anytime touchdowns have swept the sports betting world over the past few years, becoming the most popular prop in football.
But because sportsbooks only offer one side of these bets — that the player will score a touchdown — they can price them however they want.
If you've wanted to bet players to not score a touchdown, you may be in luck, depending on your state.
SuperBook (Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee) is one of the only books to offer both sides of the touchdown bet.
First, we'll dive into why you want the no side, then we'll look at SuperBook's two-way touchdown markets.
Why Do You Want a "No Touchdown" Side?
If there's only one side to a market, it allows sportsbooks to price that bet however they want.
For example: A sportsbook could list Donald Trump at +10000 (100-1) to win golf's U.S. Open, because he could technically get in the field by winning regional qualifiers. His price should be more like a billion-to-one, but it doesn't matter that he's 100-1, because it's your only option. No one will bet it, but the book doesn't put themselves at any risk (and probably just listed the price for PR reasons).
If they had to offer him not to win the U.S. Open — even at -50000 — you'd find a lot of deep-pocketed bettors laying down a lot of money, since it's a guarantee he won't win. The true chance of him winning is much greater than the odds, even at -50000.
So how does that relate to touchdowns? Well, the prices are always pretty bad because there's only one side. Books can price them however they want.
For example, our director of predictive analytics Sean Koerner found in last year's Bengals-Titans divisional round playoff game that just two of the 23 players listed in the anytime touchdown market had any "edge" — aka his projected odds being more advantageous than the listed price at sportsbooks.
And one of the two edges was just 0.4%. Almost every other player was -6% or worse.
Offering a "no" side forces the "yes" prices to be better.
How to Bet a Player Won't Score a Touchdown
Most sportsbooks have a long list of players, with their prices to score a touchdown listed next to them. There's only one option.
Here's how FanDuel looks:
But here's how it looks at SuperBook — each player has their own market, with "over 0.5 touchdowns" as one option and "under 0.5 touchdowns" as the other.
Titans running back Derrick Henry is -160 to score a touchdown, and +120 to not score a touchdown. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is almost a coin flip — -110 to score a touchdown, -120 to not score.
Because SuperBook has two-way markets, it makes their "yes" prices better. They can't price "yes" for Henry at a ridiculous -250 because then they'd have to make the "no" side somewhere around +180, which sharp bettors would eat up. That's why SuperBook is one of the best books to bet touchdown props.
The one drawback is that you can't parlay players to not score a touchdown, even in other games. You have to lay pretty heavy prices on good players to not score. For example, Mike Evans was -164 to not score against the Panthers in Week 7. Parlaying would be a good option to tie a bunch of non-touchdown scorers together, but SuperBook doesn't let you.
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
Follow Us On Social
