League of Legends Europe LCS (7/13-7/14): Underdog Misfits Have a Scheduling Advantage

Jul 12, 2018 3:49 AM EDT
  • Rift Rivals is over and it's time for Week 4 of the EU LCS.
  • The new metagame is starting to settle and become more traditional for most teams.
  • Betting lines are too heavily influenced by the chaos of the first few weeks.

It’s Week 4 of the EU LCS, and things are starting to return to normal. The teams with stronger individual skill and understanding of the standard metagame have begun to make a comeback after a tough few weeks in the new patch. We should expect to see a slow shift back towards the conventional attack damage carry (ADC)-focused play as the season continues.

The summer split picks I’ve recommended in articles and on Twitter are 48-27 (+17.4 units).

 

If you’re new to eSports, check out my League introduction. While I focus primarily on League betting in this breakdown, it has relevance to daily fantasy as well. If you’re playing League DFS, be sure to check out my evergreen strategy pieces.

For DFS, pay attention to the Kills per Win (KPW) and Deaths per Loss (DPL) numbers for this split. In general, you’ll want to roster players on teams with high KPWs playing against teams with high DPLs. Keep in mind, though, that we are early in the season; the samples are small.

For more League action, see my other regional breakdowns for this weekend.

All lines are from Bovada.

KPW Leaders

  1. Misfits: 19.6
  2. Fnatic: 18.0
  3. ROCCAT: 16.6

DPL Laggards

  1. Team Vitality: 21.0
  2. Unicorns of Love: 17
  3. Fnatic: 17

Bets

Misfits vs. G2: Friday 7/13 at 3 p.m. ET

  • Misfits: +115
  • G2: -145
  • Bet: Misfits +115

These are the two biggest teams in the EU LCS, and the difference in this matchup comes down to their schedules. G2 had to travel and prepare for North American teams at Rift Rivals, so Misfits has had more time to prepare specifically with G2 in mind. Given that the Misfits are underdogs, it’s hard to pass them up.

Unicorns of Love vs. H2k: Saturday 7/14 at 11:00 a.m. ET

  • Unicorns of Love: -150
  • H2k: +120
  • Bet: Unicorns of Love -150

Here we have two of the worst teams in the league, but there’s still a significant gap between them. H2k should get better as the season goes on and the ADC meta comes back in full force, but until then I’m gonna stick with the Unicorns.

Schalke 04 vs. SPLYCE: Saturday 7/14 at 2:00 p.m. ET

  • Schalke: +130
  • SPLYCE: -165
  • Bet: Schalke +130

I am not a big fan of Schalke (as I’ve expressed in my last few articles), but SPLYCE is still a team without a country. They don’t play this meta particularly well, and (like G2) they just got back from Rift Rivals, where they faced an entirely different type of competition. Given the issues with SPLYCE, I like Schalke at plus odds.

That’s all I’ve got for Europe. Make sure to follow me on Twitter, where I will provide additional insight and picks throughout the weekend.

Until next time, I’ll see you on the rift.

Follow John George on Twitter
@Nty9problemsDFS

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