League of Legends Europe LCS Betting & DFS Preview (Aug. 17-18): Splycin’ Together Wins

Aug 17, 2018 9:46 PM EDT
  • It's the last week of the EU LCS, and the standings are almost final.
  • Late-game teams have surged back to power after a tough start to the season.
  • Betting lines aren't taking into account playoff positioning and teams with nothing to play for.

It has been a long split. It started with the most bizarre meta we’ve ever seen in competitive league, and now almost everything is back to normal. This split has shaken up most teams, testing their mettle with multiple styles of play.

But now the end is here, and some teams are playing for seeding while others are playing for nothing. No teams are battling for playoff spots: Every unit is either locked in or locked out, which creates interesting dynamics in some matchups.

The summer split picks I’ve recommended in articles and on Twitter are 81-60 (+13.47 Units)

 

If you’re new to eSports, check out my League introduction. While I focus primarily on League betting in this breakdown, it has relevance to daily fantasy as well. If you’re playing League DFS, be sure to check out my evergreen strategy pieces.

For DFS, pay attention to the Kills per Win (KPW) and Deaths per Loss (DPL) for this split. In general, you’ll want to roster players on teams with high KPWs playing against teams with high DPLs.

All lines are from Bovada.


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KPW Leaders

  1. Fnatic: 17.7
  2. Vitality: 17.5
  3. Misfits: 16.8

DPL Laggards

  1. Fnatic: 19.7
  2. Vitality: 18.8
  3. Unicorns of Love: 16.6

Bets

H2k vs. Unicorns of Love: Friday 8/16 at noon ET

  • H2k: +160
  • Unicorns: -200
  • Bet: H2k +160

Absolutely nothing is on the line for either team except pride. Because of that, I expect to see an all-out fiesta. Teams might even draft off-meta picks just to have a good time, entertain their fan bases and experiment.

In matches like this, I prefer to take the team with more individual skill, and to me that’s H2k. Both of these teams are bad and need major offseason moves, but Unicorns have consistently broken down at the individual level, whereas H2k’s issues have had more to do with game sense and teamwork.

Splyce vs. Schalke 04: Friday 8/16 at 3:00 p.m. ET

  • Splyce: +145
  • S04: -180
  • Bet: Splyce +145

This is my weird bet of the weekend. I’m basing a lot of my analysis on teams’ attempts to move up in the playoff standings, and here we have a team realistically unable to move up vs. a team playing for the win — but I’m picking against the team trying to improve its seeding.

The reason is simple: Splyce is the most underrated team in the league. They are one of the best team-fighting and late-game units in Europe, but that was masked by the extreme aggression of the early season, which led to an 0-4 start that is not representative of who they are now in this late-game meta focused on the attack damage carry.

At this point, Splyce looks like the team that went to the EU LCS semifinals last split.

Misfits vs. Team Vitality: Friday 8/16 at 4:00 p.m. ET

  • Misfits: -105
  • Team Vitality: -120
  • Bet: Misfits -105

Vitality is unlikely to move up in the standings, while Misfits are playing to win the league.

Even though Vitality’s recent form is good, I’ve been unimpressed with them at the eye-test level. Every game, they make a number of major mistakes that have mostly been covered up by good teamwork and weak opposition.

I rewatched the last four weeks and took detailed notes. Last week, the number of times I had to write “Mistake by Jactroll” and “Mistake by Kikis” almost gave my hand cramps. I expect that the skilled Misfits will find their form this weekend. I doubt they’ll finish the regular season as champions, but they should be able to get the victory in this match.


That’s all I’ve got for Europe. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Nty9problemsDFS, where I will provide additional insight and picks throughout the weekend.

Until next time, I’ll see you on the rift.

Follow John George on Twitter
@Nty9problemsDFS

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