NFL Week 7 Fantasy Buy/Sell Trade Targets: Stock Rising On Colts’ Taylor
Bobby Ellis/Getty Images. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts running back Johnathan Taylor.
Just like in the game show, “Let’s Make A Deal,” it’s often tempting to pick the hidden prize behind the curtain. Sometimes contestants feel compelled to make a switch and succumb to temptation.
Which fantasy football players should you be tempted by and which ones should you leave “behind the curtain?”
Here are three buys and two sells as we enter the second half of the fantasy football regular season:
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Fantasy Trade Targets
RB, Jonathan Taylor, Colts
The window to buy Indianapolis’ lead running back is still open, but it’s closing fast. Taylor’s touch share has increased in each of the past four games.
Jonathan Taylor’s weekly share of backfield touches in Indy's last four games: 40% < 45% < 70% < 72.7%.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 19, 2020
Taylor averaged a robust 5.0 yards per carry against Cincinnati, but was a victim of negative game script when Indianapolis trailed 14-0 after the first quarter.
The Wisconsin rookie has also been productive in the passing game. Taylor has caught 16 of his 17 targets for 162 receiving yards. His 10.1 yards per reception is higher than Joe Mixon (6.6 ypr), Aaron Jones (8.9 ypr), and Ezekiel Elliott (7.2 ypr).
The Colts’ remaining schedule is one of the most running back-friendly in the NFL. After its Week 7 bye, Indianapolis faces seven opponents that rank in the bottom half of league in running back fantasy points allowed.
In Week 8, the Colts face a Detroit team that ranks 30th in scheduled-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs (aFPA) per 4for4.
This is your final chance to trade for a 2020 fantasy league-winner.
RB David Montgomery, Bears
Fantasy players simply aren’t excited by Montgomery’s subpar athletic metrics. Regardless, he remains Chicago’s lead running back with a dominant workload and shallow depth chart.
In the three games following Tarik Cohen’s season-ending knee injury, Montgomery has seen snap shares of 86.2%, 78.6%, and 81%. He simply has no competition in the Bears’ backfield.
Montgomery also has one of the best fantasy playoff schedules possible. Chicago will face Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville, all who rank 23rd or worse in running back rushing yards allowed.
If you need a solid RB2 with RB1 upside in the fantasy playoffs, make a move for Montgomery and prioritize volume over efficiency.
WR, D.J. Chark, Jaguars
If you are looking to trade for an impact wide receiver, take a close look at Jacksonville’s D.J. Chark.
Beset by early-season injuries, Chark has struggled to make a fantasy impact equivalent to his preseason fantasy draft position. Chark has just one Top 12 wide receiver performance and is coming off a disappointing PPR WR29 game against Houston, despite receiving 14 targets.
It’s simple. Chark is an athletic WR1 on a Jacksonville team that projects to be trailing for much of the remaining schedule. Despite leaving Week 2 early and missing Week 3 due to injuries, he still entered Week 6 ranked 13th among all wide receivers in red zone targets.
Without question, Chark is the lead wideout in Jacksonville, with a strong connection to quarterback Gardner Minshew. Take advantage of impatient owners and nab yourself a high-end WR2/low-end WR1 the rest of season.
Fantasy Sell Candidates
RB, Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs
Just like in “Let’s Make a Deal,” sometimes the shiny new box just looks too tempting to resist. That’s what your league mates may feel about the Chiefs’ newly acquired running back.
I can’t see Bell getting the majority of touches when first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire is having such a productive rookie season.
Edwards-Helaire gained 161 yards on the ground in Kansas City’s 26-17 win at Buffalo. That places him second in rushing yards among all running backs, trailing only Derrick Henry.
Bell will serve as the two-minute back and potentially vulture the occasional goal-line touchdown. However, Edwards-Helaire has earned the opportunity touches.
Edwards-Helaire has also been fantastic in the passing game, ranking Top 10 in targets, receptions and receiving yards.
Look for another team in your league that still thinks Bell is a Top 12 fantasy back and pull the trigger before he ever plays a snap for Kansas City.
QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Brady tossed two touchdowns in Tampa Bay’s 38-10 blowout win over Green Bay. Over the past four games, Brady has 11 touchdowns and just one interception.
That being said, it’s sell time.
While in New England, Brady had a history of decreasing fantasy production during the second half of the season. Every year since the 2017 season, Brady has failed to be a QB1 during the critical Weeks 13-16 of the fantasy playoffs.
Before Tampa Bay’s late Week 13 bye, Brady will face tough pass defenses at the Giants, at Carolina, at Kansas City and a home game against the Rams. There are too many quarterbacks available on the waiver wire, such as Ryan Tannehill and Matthew Stafford, to justify holding onto the 43-year-old Brady.
Try to unload the future Hall of Famer to a team that just lost Dak Prescott and get an explosive WR3 in return.