Friday Sharp Report: 3 College Hoops Matchups Targeted by Wiseguys
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
It’s a light college basketball slate today, meaning there are less opportunities for wiseguys to pick off soft numbers. It’s probably a good thing too, considering our regular Sharp Report guru, Josh Appelbaum, is unavailable today, meaning it’s up to yours truly to continue his momentum today.
While I didn’t break down the incredible 10 games that Josh was able to expertly analyze yesterday, there are three matchups getting pounded by wiseguys that all bettors should know about before getting down on tonight’s slate.
For a full glossary betting of terms, plus the sides getting the highest percentage of tickets and money, check out the bottom of the article.
All data as of 2:00 p.m. ET
Dayton (+10.5) at Rhode Island
7:00 p.m. ET
Based on line movement alone, this is clearly the #1 target of wiseguy action so far today. Rhode Island opened as a 13.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.eu and is receiving 69% of spread tickets. As Josh would deftly point out, why would oddsmakers give public bettors three free points of line value?
Thankfully, our line charts provide the answer. Around 9 a.m. ET today, Dayton money started flowing, highlighted by a Steam Move triggered at +11.5 shortly after 11 a.m. ET. The public is happily laying the points in this matchup while sharp bettors can’t get enough of the underdog.
Western Michigan (+4) at Ball State
9:00 p.m. ET
While the line movement isn’t as drastic as Dayton-Rhode Island, the betting patterns setup quite similarly between these two games. Ball State opened at -5.5 and 75% of bets have come down on the favorite. However, sharp money has steadily pounded the dog all day, driving the line down to -4.
Our Bet Signals triggered a Reverse Line Move on Western Michigan at +5, confirming that professional money is reason for the adjustment from oddsmakers.
Marist (+9) at Niagara
7:00 p.m. ET
Niagara opened as a 9.5-point favorite across the betting market and 70% of spread tickets have fallen on the Purple Eagles (yes, that’s correct). While tickets suggest that the majority of action is on Niagara, our money percentages explain that 72% of dollars bet on this game have actually taken the points with Marist.
With the money clearly flowing on the dog, oddsmakers have bumped this number down to +9 to account for the early liability from big bettors.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
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A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Cover Photo Via Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Rhode Island Rams forward Ryan Preston