Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, June 5.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Diamondbacks vs. Braves, Royals vs. Cardinals, Phillies vs. Blue Jays, and Astros vs Pirates. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, June 5
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -110o / -110u | -170 |
RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. RHP Grant Holmes (ATL)
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has been much better in May (3.22 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 19% K-BB, 98 Pitching+, 3.87 botERA) than he was in April (4.50 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, 7.7% K-BB, 92 Pitching+, 4.66 botERA). After posting a 3.56 ERA and 3.46 xERA last season, I think he can carry sub-four earned-run indicators for the remainder of the season.
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is the opposite, declining in May (5.40 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 9.2% K-BB, 96 Pitching+, 4.22 botERA) after an excellent April (2.79 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB, 103 Pitching+, 3.31 botERA).
I’d say the Braves have the starting pitching advantage in this matchup, and I would also say they have the bullpen advantage. Atlanta has been the far more effective relief unit over the past month, and Arizona deployed two of their highest-leverage relievers in back-to-back days on Tuesday and Wednesday.
I project the Braves ML at -152.
There’s a chance Ronald Acuna sits again, in which case I’d project their ML at -135.
Pick: Braves ML (-132 | Play to -140)
Royals vs. Cardinals Game 1
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
LHP Noah Cameron (KCR) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (STL)
I bet the Under 8.5 for the same matchup on Wednesday. Given it’s Game 1 of a doubleheader, we may get better defensive lineups (especially at catcher if we get Freddy Fremin for Kansas City and Pedro Pages for St. Louis), only increasing my projected edge.
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron looks impressive in his limited sample size, but he’s due for some regression (1.05 ERA, 3.14 xERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, 93 Stuff+, 4.09 botERA) behind a mediocre fastball grade (77 Stuff+).
That said, I’d say he has a relatively high floor despite a lower ceiling. He has good command (8.2% walk rate, 102 Location+) and a deep arsenal that he mixes up.
Statcast loves the Cardinals' defense (+20 OAA, leading all MLB teams), and it ranks the Royals as a top-10 defensive team (+10 OAA). My model projects St. Louis as MLB’s third-best defense and Kansas City as the 15th-best.
I project 7.77 runs for this game, given expected lineups.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 | Play to 8 +100)
Phillies vs. Blue Jays
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -115o / -105u | +100 |
LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR)
These are two top-10 offenses, but the Blue Jays are in their better split on Thursday against a Southpaw, while the Phillies are in their worse split against a righty. Also, JT Realmuto likely sits after leaving Wednesday’s game early (HBP in the groin).
The Blue Jays also have the better bullpen, ranking among MLB’s top two teams in reliever xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate — meanwhile, the Phillies’ bullpen has regressed since Jose Alvarado was suspended.
The Blue Jays are also the far better defensive team, with the Phillies ranking among MLB’s bottom-three teams in DRS (-33) and OAA (-11).
I give the Phillies the starting pitching advantage behind the ever-elite Jesus Luzardo, but I still project the Blue Jays ML at -112.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+110 | Play to -102)
Astros vs. Pirates
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -160 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +135 |
LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (PIT)
I have been showing value against Pittsburgh in Paul Skenes' starts, but typically showing value with the Pirates in non-Skenes starts. Thursday is the same.
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller is unspectacular (4.02 ERA, 3.92 xERA, 12.5% K-BB) but has a high floor (projected FIP range between 3.76 and 4.12) — a comparable floor to Astros starter Framber Valdez (3.75 xERA, 3.16 xFIP, 16% K-BB, projected FIP range between 3.30 and 3.49).
The Astros have the better season-long bullpen numbers, but the Pirates have been better in relief since May 1. While Houston has the far better offense, even without Yordan Alvarez, the Pirates arguably have the better defense.
They’ll likely need to win a low-scoring game, but I project the Pirates ML at +115 nonetheless.
Pick: Pirates ML (+138 | Play to +125)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, June 5
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Braves ML (-132 | Play to -140)
- Blue Jays ML (+110 | Play to -102)
- Mets ML (+120 | Play to +115)
- Pirates ML (+138 | Play to +125)
- Cubs vs. Nationals Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
- Royals vs. Cardinals Game 1 Under 8.5 (-115 | Play to 8 +100)
