The 2020 Daytona 500 goes green on Feb. 16, but NASCAR fans and bettors will see meaningful on-track action in today's Busch Clash (3 p.m. ET, FS1) at Daytona.
The Clash is a 75-lap shootout with no points on the line, just prestige.
Clash eligibility consists of pole winners from last season, former Clash winners, former Daytona 500 pole winners and drivers who qualified for the 2019 playoffs. This year's edition of the race includes 18 drivers.
Odds as Sunday at 10 a.m. ET and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
On the other hand, the Daytona 500 will feature a full 40-car field, and this is where we can find betting value as sportsbooks are not properly adjusting for the smaller Clash field, especially when setting odds for top-three finishes.
Busch Clash at Daytona Betting Picks
DraftKings Sportsbook is currently offering a full menu of odds for the outright winner, driver matchups and props, and my interest quickly focused on odds for drivers to finish top three.
Obviously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that it's easier for any given car to finish in the top three when racing against 17 other cars compared to 39 competitors.
For example, Chase Elliott is +1100 in Daytona 500 and Busch Clash outright winner odds, with top-three finish odds at +275 in each race. But like I mentioned above, Elliott finishing ahead of 15 cars to earn that feat in the Clash is easier than him beating 37 cars to do it in the 500, so top-three odds for the Clash should be shorter.
However, this is not being taken into account.
Given a totally random set of cars, the chance of finishing top three in an 18-car race is 3 / 18 = 16.67%. For a 40-car race that percentage drops to 3 / 40 = 7.5%.
But on the odds board, the average implied probability for the Clash is 22.69% compared to 14.02% for Daytona.
Obviously, each implied probability is still higher the the true percentage, but the relative difference for the Clash is much smaller than that for the Daytona 500, opening up a greater opportunity for bettors to find value on the 18-car board.
While there's still potentially value in betting outright winners, especially if you like a specific driver or drivers, looking at top-three opportunities is better from a mathematical standpoint.
Busch Clash at Daytona Betting Picks:
- William Byron to finish top 3 (+350)
- Aric Almirola to finish top 3 (+450)
- Alex Bowman to finish top 3 (+600)
[Bet Busch Clash top-three odds now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
