NASCAR XFINITY 500 at Martinsville Betting Picks & Predictions: The Longshot Prop To Target on Sunday Afternoon

NASCAR XFINITY 500 at Martinsville Betting Picks & Predictions: The Longshot Prop To Target on Sunday Afternoon article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bowman, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet

  • The NASCAR Cup Series XFINITY 500 at Martinsville Speedway will start at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 31.
  • According to the latest NASCAR odds, Martin Truex Jr., who won at Martinsville in April is the betting favorite.
  • However, savvy bettors should be targeting an undervalued prop with very nice 17-1 longshot odds.

It’s no secret that Martinsville Speedway is my favorite track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit.

However, that doesn’t mean it’s also my favorite to bet.

Martinsville is short and very flat, making it hard for cars to pass one another.

As a result, drivers often employ what is referred to as the “chrome horn,” also known as using the bumper to move the car in front out of the way before making a pass.

From a fan’s perspective this makes the racing at Martinsville incredibly exciting while also being difficult to handicap for bettors.

Currently I have not yet dipped my toes into any outright bets.

However, there is one 17-1 prop that is wildly mispriced not only due to a driver’s skewed finish at Martinsville in the spring, but also because another is being overvalued.

Let me explain.

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NASCAR at Martinsville Betting Pick

There’s no way around it: Kyle Larson has dominated the NASCAR Cup Series, including nine wins on the year and three straight heading into Sunday’s XFINITY 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC).

However, Larson has not been his dominant self on flat tracks that use the 750-horsepower package, just like Martinsville.

In addition, Martinsville itself has not been one of Larson’s tops tracks historically, either. Now, this doesn’t mean that he and the No. 5 team don’t figure it out and dominate on Sunday.

But based on his past performances at this track and with this package, Larson’s 5-1 odds are significantly shorter than I think they should be.

So with Larson, Chase Elliott and even William Byron higher on the NASCAR at Martinsville outright odds board than Alex Bowman, the gap between the drivers is reflected in props as well.

Because of this, I’m taking Bowman to be the top finishing Chevy at 17-1 odds, which is currently available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Bowman was really good at this track in 2020, posting the fifth-best average finish and sixth-best driver rating across both races.

Back in April of 2021, Bowman managed just a 34th-place finish at Martinsville, which is likely affecting his odds for Sunday’s race as well, although the No. 48 Chevy was much faster than his finishing position.

As Ryan from ifantasyrace.com tweeted earlier this week, Bowman finished seventh in Stage 1 and fifth in Stage 2 in that race before a loose wheel forced him to pit late while running in second place.

A top-six finish in the spring would have been his third in a row at Martinsville, which is significant since those three events all used the same race package and tire combination that teams will run in Sunday’s XFINITY 500.

Let me state this for the record: I’m am not predicting that Bowman will be the highest finishing Chevy driver on Sunday.

However, based on his price, I very much think he finishes as the top Chevy more than 5.56% of the time than his 17-1 odds imply, making this a very nice value bet for Sunday’s XFINITY 500 at Martinsville.

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