The conclave to choose the next pope begins Wednesday in the Vatican. Despite the total secrecy and strict isolation that define the process, several names are emerging as strong contenders to lead the Catholic Church — while others remain under the radar, ready to surprise.
Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21 and the conclusion of the nine-day mourning period prescribed by tradition, 133 cardinals from around the world will gather in the Sistine Chapel to cast their votes. To be elected Bishop of Rome, a candidate must secure a two-thirds majority — 89 votes.
Here are the betting odds, using probabilities from Kalshi converted into prices.
| Name | Country | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 25% | +300 |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 20% | +400 |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 10% | +900 |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | Italy | 10% | +900 |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | 9% | +1011 |
| Peter Erdo | Hungary | 8% | +1150 |
| Jean-Marc Aveline | France | 6% | +1567 |
| Robert Sarah | Guinea | 3% | +3233 |
| Fridolin Ambongo | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2% | +4900 |
| Anders Arborelius | Sweden | 2% | +4900 |
| Robert Prevost | United States | 2% | +4900 |
Pietro Parolin, currently the Vatican Secretary of State, leads the field. Backed by many papal nuncios — cardinals with diplomatic tasks — media reports suggest he may already have around 40 votes secured. However, real support is hard to gauge as strict secrecy rules prohibit the sharing of information from inside the conclave.
Second in the running is Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. Considered a continuation of Francis’s papacy for his joyful spirit, pastoral closeness, and reformist outlook, Tagle is expected to draw strong support from Asian cardinals.
Another prominent name is Italian cardinal Matteo Zuppi, also seen as aligned with Francis’s legacy. However, his limited international profile may make it harder to build consensus. His fellow Italian, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, is also considered a contender thanks to his diplomatic work, although his relatively young age (60) could be a drawback for cardinals who hope to avoid a long papacy.
Peter Turkson of Ghana could make history as the first Black pope. With one in five Catholics living in Africa, the idea of an African pope is gaining momentum in some Vatican circles. Another Peter — Peter Erdo of Hungary — is favored by the more conservative wing of the Church.
Among the long shots is American Robert Francis Prevost, 69, who spent two decades in Peru as a missionary and later as a bishop.
How the Papal Vote Works
During the conclave, cardinals may vote as many times as needed to reach a consensus, with up to four ballots cast per day. The outside world is informed of the result through smoke rising from a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel: black if no decision has been reached, white if Habemus Papam — a new pope has been elected.
What is Kalshi?
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