Update: Robert Prevost of the United States was elected as the new pope on Thursday afternoon and has taken the name Leo XIV.
Prevost was trading at 1.6% at Kalshi as recently as noon ET, right before white smoke was seen at the Vatican. That implies around +5000 odds for Prevost to be elected.
"The papal market caps off a historic stretch on Kalshi: Events with a 1% likelihood have occurred in each of the past four days," a Kalshi spokesperson said. "The chaotic NBA playoffs and the unexpected election of Cardinal Prevost have provided Kalshi traders with some true 100x opportunities, and they are taking advantage. Today serves as a great reminder: there's always money to be made on Kalshi."
Kalshi also reported five trades of more than $100 placed on Prevost when his odds were sitting at 1%. The largest was a $526 trade that paid out $52,641.
At BetMGM, which listed odds for the next pope, Prevost was also +5000. According to John Ewing of BetMGM, 19% of the bets were on Peitro Parolin of Italy, while 58% of the money was no Luis Antonio Tagle of the Phillipines.
The conclave to choose the next pope began Wednesday in the Vatican. Despite the total secrecy and strict isolation that define the process, several names emerged as strong contenders to lead the Catholic Church — while others remain under the radar, ready to surprise.
Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21 and the conclusion of the nine-day mourning period prescribed by tradition, 133 cardinals from around the world will gather in the Sistine Chapel to cast their votes. To be elected Bishop of Rome, a candidate must secure a two-thirds majority — 89 votes.
Here are the betting odds from Wednesday, using probabilities from Kalshi converted into prices.
| Name | Country | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 25% | +300 |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 20% | +400 |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 10% | +900 |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | Italy | 10% | +900 |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | 9% | +1011 |
| Peter Erdo | Hungary | 8% | +1150 |
| Jean-Marc Aveline | France | 6% | +1567 |
| Robert Sarah | Guinea | 3% | +3233 |
| Fridolin Ambongo | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2% | +4900 |
| Anders Arborelius | Sweden | 2% | +4900 |
| Robert Prevost | United States | 2% | +4900 |
Pietro Parolin, currently the Vatican Secretary of State, leads the field. Backed by many papal nuncios — cardinals with diplomatic tasks — media reports suggest he may already have around 40 votes secured. However, real support is hard to gauge as strict secrecy rules prohibit the sharing of information from inside the conclave.
Second in the running is Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. Considered a continuation of Francis’s papacy for his joyful spirit, pastoral closeness, and reformist outlook, Tagle is expected to draw strong support from Asian cardinals.
Another prominent name is Italian cardinal Matteo Zuppi, also seen as aligned with Francis’s legacy. However, his limited international profile may make it harder to build consensus. His fellow Italian, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, is also considered a contender thanks to his diplomatic work, although his relatively young age (60) could be a drawback for cardinals who hope to avoid a long papacy.
Peter Turkson of Ghana could make history as the first Black pope. With one in five Catholics living in Africa, the idea of an African pope is gaining momentum in some Vatican circles. Another Peter — Peter Erdo of Hungary — is favored by the more conservative wing of the Church.
Among the long shots is American Robert Francis Prevost, 69, who spent two decades in Peru as a missionary and later as a bishop.
How the Papal Vote Works
During the conclave, cardinals may vote as many times as needed to reach a consensus, with up to four ballots cast per day. The outside world is informed of the result through smoke rising from a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel: black if no decision has been reached, white if Habemus Papam — a new pope has been elected.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
Patrick Everson of VegasInsider contributed to this article.
