2018 Midterm Election Betting: State-By-State Senate Race Odds

Oct 11, 2018 4:07 PM EDT
  • Below are midterm election betting odds for state Senate races, including Ted Cruz vs. Beto O'Rourke in Texas.
  • Oddsmakers give Republicans a 84.8% chance (-560 odds) to retain control of the Senate, and Democrats a 66.7% chance to win the House (-200 odds).

On Nov. 6, millions of Americans will head to the polls to vote in the midterm elections. Historically, midterm elections are viewed as a referendum on the President, with the party out of power almost always performing better than the party in power.

Currently, Republicans control the Senate 51-49. In order to win control of the Senate, Democrats will need to finish with a net gain of at least two seats in the midterms. On the surface, it doesn’t seem very daunting of a task. However, the map is not in the Democrats’ favor. The Democrats must defend 25 seats while Republicans must defend only eight.

On Thursday, Bovada released a series of head-to-head odds for a plethora of key Senate races.

North Dakota

  • Heidi Heitkamp (D): 22.2% chance (+350 odds)
  • Kevin Cramer (R): 83.3% chance (-500 odds)

Arizona

  • Martha McSally (R): 56.5% chance (-130 odds)
  • Kyrsten Sinema (D): 50% chance (Even odds)

California

  • Dianne Feinstein (D): 92.3% chance (-1200 odds)
  • Field: 13.3% chance (+650 odds)

Florida

  • Bill Nelson (D): 53.5% chance (-115 odds)
  • Rick Scott (R): 53.5% chance (-115 odds)

Indiana

  • Joe Donnelly (D):  57.4% chance (-135 odds)
  • Mike Braun (R):  48.8% chance (+105 odds)

Missouri

  • Claire McCaskill (D): 42.6% chance (+135 odds)
  • Josh Hawley (R): 62.3% chance (-165 odds)

Montana

  • Jon Tester (D): 75% chance (-300 odds)
  • Matt Rosendale (R): 29.4% chance (+240 odds)

Nevada

  • Dean Heller (R): 47.6% chance (+110 odds)
  • Jacky Rosen (D): 58.3% chance (-140 odds)

New Jersey

  • Bob Menendez (D): 83.3% chance (-500 odds)
  • Bob Hugin (R): 22.2% chance (+350 odds)

Tennessee

  • Marsha Blackburn (R): 80% chance (-400 odds)
  • Phil Bredesen (D): 25% chance (+300 odds)

West Virginia

  • Joe Manchin (D): 81.8% chance (-450 odds)
  • Patrick Morrissey (R): 23.5% chance (+325 odds)

Texas

  • Ted Cruz (R): 75% chance (-300 odds)
  • Beto O’Rourke (D): 29.4% chance (+240 odds)

According to the betting markets, Republicans are expected to buck the historical trend and hold their majority in the Senate.

Who will win Senate Control in 2018? (Heritage)

  • Republicans: 84.8% chance (-560 odds)
  • Democrats: 21.3% chance  (+370 odds)

2018 US Senate Election Majority Outcome (Bovada)

  • Republican Majority: 72.2% chance (-260 odds)
  • Democratic Majority: 11.8% chance (+750 odds)
  • No Majority: 26.3% chance (+280 odds)

Two of the top political trading sites, PredictIt and Smarkets, are posting Republicans as massive favorites to retain the Senate.

 

 

According to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, Democrats have only a 20% chance of winning the Senate. However, the House is a different story.

To win the House, Democrats need to flip 25 Republican seats. Oddsmakers give the Democrats a great shot at pulling off the upset.

Odds to win House Control 2018 (Heritage)

  • Republicans: 39.2% chance (+155 odds)
  • Democrats: 66.7% chance (-200 odds)

2018 US House of Representatives Election — Majority Outcome (Bovada)

  • Democratic Majority: 66.7% chance (-200 odds)
  • Republican Majority: 40% chance (+150 odds)

PredictIt and Smarkets also expect Democrats to win the House.

Credit:

credit USA Today

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
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