2020 Presidential Election Odds: Beto O’Rourke’s Stock Rising After Midterms


Photo credit: Abilene Reporter-News-USA TODAY. Pictured: Beto O’Rourke

Nov 08, 2018, 08:58 PM EST
  • The 2018 Midterm Elections are over, which means all eyes are now on the 2020 Presidential race.
  • The betting market has shifted after last night, most notably for Beto O'Rourke, who lost to Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race.

The 2018 Midterm Elections are finally over, which means the political betting market will now set its sight on the 2020 Presidential Election.

On the Republican side of things, the betting market predictably didn’t shift much: Sitting presidents almost always seek a second term, and thus President Donald Trump is the current favorite in betting market to win the 2020 Presidential Election.

The opposing party is always much more interesting, and we’ve seen some notable movement today, particularly due to a close Senate race in Texas yesterday. Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Republican Ted Cruz in a race that historically hasn’t been close.

Beto is considered one of the up-and-coming stars of the Democratic party, and his grassroots campaign fundraised at a historic rate. As such, the public and bettors alike are already wondering if he’ll make a run for the top job in just a couple years now that his Senate campaign is over.

According to online book, Beto now has the second-highest odds at 9.1% probability (+1000) to become the President in 2020, tied with Democratic Senator from California, Kamala Harris.

Who Will Win the 2020 Presidential Election?

Data below is each candidates implied probability to win according to the betting market.

Trump leads all candidates with a 40.0% implied probability. Several Democratic likely nominees in Bernie Sanders (7.7%), Joe Biden (6.7%), Elizabeth Warren (4.8%) and Cory Booker (4.8%) trail Harris and O’Rourke.

It seems unlikely that 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will run again, and indeed she is far down the list at just 1.5% implied probability.

What is interesting, however, is that Beto’s 2020 Presidential odds are actually higher than his odds (6.7%) to win the 2020 Democratic primary.

Who Will Win the 2020 Democratic Primary?

It’s unclear why that discrepancy exists, although perhaps the betting market is more bullish on Beto’s chances to beat Trump in the general election than to actually be the Democratic nominee. That said, we don’t see that kind of discrepancy with any other candidate.

Stay tuned; I’m sure we’ll be covering Beto and the 2020 race quite often over the next two years.

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