2020 Presidential Election Odds: How Donald Trump’s Betting Odds Have Fallen Over the Past 10 Days
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images. Pictured: Donald Trump
As the election and news cycle continue to evolve at a fast pace, so do Donald Trump’s odds for reelection.
Heading into Super Tuesday (March 3), Trump was a -162 favorite to win the 2020 presidential election (bet $162 to win $100) according to the European sportsbook Betfair — a 52.6% implied probability. Now 10 days later, those odds are down to -125, or a 50.2% implied probability.
That still means Trump is favored to win in November, but with Joe Biden’s recent surge in the Democratic Primary, the former Vice President has shortened the gap between himself and Trump in the betting market.
Biden, who was a +500 underdog (bet $100 to win $500) before his big Super Tuesday wins, has seen his odds shoot up to +125 — or an increase from a 14.2% to 43.1% implied improbability of beating Trump.
Biden’s string of primary victories also means he’s leapfrogged Bernie Sanders on the betting board, emerging as a heavy -2500 favorite (88.8% implied probability) to win the Democratic nomination, while Sanders’ odds have fallen to +2500 (3.6% implied probability).
We’ll continue to monitor how the betting market shifts in the coming days and weeks, but for now, let’s take a look at the most recent presidential election odds as of Thursday afternoon (via Betfair).
2020 Presidential Election Odds
- Donald Trump: -125, 50.2% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +110, 43.1% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +3300, 2.7% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +8000, 1.1% implied probability
- Evan McMullin: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +37500, 0.2% implied probability
- Tom Steyer: +50000, 0.2% implied probability
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -125 means that you’d have to bet $125 on Trump in order to win $100 if he is reelected, whereas if you bet $100 on Biden at +125 odds, you’d profit $125 if he’s elected.
To convert odds for yourself, check out our Betting Odds Calculator.
Note that all the implied probabilities above are vig-free.