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Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court Confirmation Odds Continue to Drop


July 11, 2018; Washington, DC, USA; Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh meets with Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) on Capitol Hill. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY

  • Politics betting marketplace allows users to speculate on Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination.
  • Over the past couple of weeks, Kavanaugh has gone from 67% implied probability to be confirmed in September to just 35%.
  • Still, Republicans are at 74% implied probability to retain control of the Senate, so Kavanaugh is still likely to be confirmed even if it's pushed back.

The confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh continues to be a heated debate in the politics world, especially with November midterms looming.

Politics betting marketplace allows users to wager on whether Kavanaugh will be confirmed in September — which was initially speculated given that the Supreme Court resumes hearing cases in October.

Here are the odds, which have dipped in a major way over the past couple of weeks:

Odds Kavanaugh Will Be Confirmed By September

The reason for the dip is because of Kavanaugh’s political history and paper trail. Senators are requesting over 125,000 documents to be released so they can start the debate, and the National Archives and Records Administration recently said that it lacks the resources to provide those in a timely matter.

Republicans are absolutely still motivated to have the hearing and vote before November, but the betting market suggests it will get pushed at least until October.

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Of course, even if it gets pushed further — perhaps past the midterms — Kavanaugh is still likely to be confirmed if Republicans support him. Per PredictIt, Republicans are still large favorites to retain control of the Senate in November.

Odds on Which Party Will Control the Senate After 2018 Midterms

Democrats are the favorites to win back the House, as I recently wrote about here, but the House has no vote in the confirmation of a SCOTUS nominee.

So, all told, Kavanaugh is unlikely to be confirmed quickly in September, and it could push up to the midterms or even past them, but he’s still likely to get through given the Republicans’ odds to retain control of the Senate in November.

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