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Georgia Senate Election Odds: Race Called for Warnock, Ossoff-Perdue Still Off the Board

Georgia Senate Election Odds: Race Called for Warnock, Ossoff-Perdue Still Off the Board article feature image

Photo credit: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Ossoff (left) and Raphael Warnock (right)

Georgia Senate Odds: Perdue vs. Ossoff

Candidate Odds Implied Probability
David Perdue (Republican) OFF N/A
Jon Ossoff (Democrat) OFF N/A

Georgia Senate Odds: Loeffler vs. Warnock

Candidate Odds Implied Probability
Kelly Loeffler (Republican) OFF N/A
Raphael Warnock (Democrat) OFF N/A

Odds as of Tuesday, Jan. 5 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Jon Ossoff’s -110 odds mean a $110 bet would net $100 if he wins. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.

Jan. 5, 11 p.m. ET Update: While odds are still off the board at Betfair, many media outlets have either called the second Senate race for Ossoff, or are close to calling it. That would give Democrats control of the Senate.

New York Times now saying 91 percent chance for Ossoff.

— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) January 6, 2021

Jan. 5, 9:45 p.m. ET Update: Dave Wasserman has called one race for Warnock; it’s been off the board at Betfair for the last few hours.

I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in GA's special Senate runoff. #GASEN

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Jan. 5, 8 p.m. ET Update: Betfair has pulled both races off the board, as have offshore sportsbooks, as results start to roll in. It doesn’t appear the books are treating the race as a live market like they did the presidential election.

Before polls closed, Warnock had about a 60% chance to win according to the betting markets, and Ossoff and Perdue were deadlocked at 50-50.

Jan. 5 Update: There’s only been movement in one race over the last 24 hours as Georgians flock to the polls. Raphael Warnock’s chances have improved about five percent, while the Ossoff-Perdue race has remained at a coin flip.

Democrats need to win both seats to control the Senate; Betfair lists the likelihood of that happening at even money.

Jan. 4 Update: This race has swung in the Democrats’ favor over the last month, at least according to the betting market.

After opening north of -250 (around a 70% chance to win), Republican David Perdue is down to -110 against Jon Ossoff, which means the race is a total coin flip at the moment.

Kelly Loeffler has also lost her ground as a favorite, dropping from -175 to +125 over the last month.

FiveThirtyEight makes both Democrats slight favorites, but it’s close enough that these elections could each go either way.

But to take the Senate and give President Joe Biden control of the House and Senate, Democrats need to win both elections. Betfair puts the likelihood of that right around even money.

Dec. 9 Update: Although November has come and gone, control of the U.S. Senate is still up in the air. In what are perhaps the most consequential run-off elections in modern U.S. political history, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will try to unseat Republican incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, and give President-Elect Joe Biden a trifecta control of the government in 2021.

Republicans already have 50 Senate seats, so winning either of the races would given them continued control. If Democrats win both, the parties will be split at 50/50, and voting ties are broken by the Vice President, who will soon be newly-elected Kamala Harris.

According to European sportsbook Betfair, which had Joe Biden as the favorite to win the November presidential election, a divided government is the most likely outcome in January. Perdue is a -250 favorite (66.2% implied probability) against Ossoff, while Loeffler is a smaller -175 favorite (58.9% implied probability) vs. Warnock.

Given that math, Republicans have nearly a 40% chance of winning both Senate seats, although that’s not necessary for party control. More importantly, these odds suggest that Democrats winning both races — and giving Biden a trifecta — is right around 14%.

Of course, political betting can often be quite correlated — if Perdue outperforms polling, it’s possible Loeffler will as well — but broadly, it seems that Republicans are currently fairly big favorites to retain control of the Senate despite public polling suggesting Democrats have a lead.

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