Kavanaugh Odds: Confirmation a Virtual Lock According to Betting Market

Sep 28, 2018 1:13 PM EDT
  • Political betting markets went on an epic roller-coaster ride during Thursday's highly anticipated hearings with Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh.
  • Once the dust settled on Friday morning, the market made Kavanaugh a massive favorite to be confirmed.

Political followers and bettors alike witnessed a whirlwind roller coaster like no other yesterday when Brett Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, took the stand on Capitol Hill.

Blasey Ford testified first before the Senate Judiciary Committee. As she explained her sexual assault allegations in detail, the betting market was pummeled with anti-Kavanaugh action.

At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s chances of being confirmed tanked from 55% to 36%. At Bookmaker, Kavanaugh reached -450 (81.8% chance) to not be confirmed on or before Oct. 31, 2018.

But then everything changed when Kavanaugh had his turn under oath. President Trump’s second Supreme Court nominee vehemently defended his integrity and denied all allegations of wrongdoing.

Late last night, after Kavanaugh’s testimony wrapped up, the betting markets completely flipped in his favor, pushing him from a longshot underdog to a favorite to be confirmed: 79% at PredictIt and 77.4% chance (-290 odds) at Bovada.

On Friday morning, Kavanaugh’s nomination became all but a certainty when Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona came out in support of him. Flake was considered a swing vote who could have held up the confirmation if he voted “No.”

At PredictIt, Kavanaugh now sits at 79% to be confirmed, an all-time high. The odds of Kavanaugh receiving 52 votes is now the favorite, surging nearly 20% since yesterday. (All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 28.)

 

In order for Kavanaugh not to be confirmed, all 49 Democrats — plus two Republicans — would need to vote “No”. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine are two of the only GOP Senators on the fence.

But according to betting markets, both are unlikely to join Democrats and vote “No.”

 

Kavanaugh odds are off the board at several books, including BookMaker, BetOnline, Bovada and MyBookie.

One of the only sportsbooks still hanging odds is Heritage. It’s giving Kavanaugh an 81.8% chance to be confirmed (-450 betting odds) and a 23.5% chance to be rejected (+325 odds).

At Smarkets, Kavanaugh’s odds dipped to 62.11% yesterday afternoon but have since skyrocketed to 82.64%.

Credit:

Brett Kavanaugh. Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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