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WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: How To Bet Thursday Night’s 4-Game Slate (September 2)

WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: How To Bet Thursday Night’s 4-Game Slate (September 2) article feature image

Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Sue Bird.

Last time out, we highlighted two teams in the league and dug into their numbers from an ATS perspective. Today, we’ll focus on the Storm, one of the eight teams in action, Thursday night.

Seattle’s 32-point loss to Chicago was quite a surprise on Sunday. Not only was it the fifth loss in seven games for the Storm, but it was also their eighth game in 18 days.

Despite their recent slide, the Storm still have the third-best record in the WNBA at 18-10, but their 9-19 mark against the spread (ATS) is the worst in the league.

Seattle also played in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game right after the Olympic break. In fact, Seattle defeated the top-ranked Connecticut Sun 79-57 to move to 3-0 against them on the season. There was plenty on the line in the contest, with $500,000 going to the winning team.

That game was just three weeks ago, and I don’t think Seattle has all of a sudden forgotten how to play basketball since. Instead, I think fatigue has been the problem, but it’ll get a chance to rest up with only four games in September to close out the season.

I’ve decided to stay away from Seattle as a side in tonight’s game as I have a different angle I’ll look to explore. Let’s start by taking a look at the other three games on the Thursday card.

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Projected WNBA Odds

Matchup Time Proj. Spread Proj. Total
Dream vs. Wings 8 p.m. ET Wings -6.77 165.53
Sparks vs. Lynx 8 p.m. ET Lynx -8.10 149.75
Sky vs. Aces 10 p.m. ET Aces -5.06 167.04
Liberty vs. Storm 10 p.m. ET Storm -11.18 165.94

Dream vs. Wings

Dream Odds +6.5
Wings Odds -6.5
Moneyline +220 / -295
Over/Under 158.5
Time Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Thursday and via FanDuel

Injuries & News

Atlanta lists three players on the injury report:  Chennedy Carter (14.2 points per game) remains suspended, while Crystal Bradford (8.8) is done with a broken foot for the season. Tianna Hawkins (5.2) is doubtful with an undisclosed issue.

Dallas has ruled out Satou Sabally (12.4 points per game) with an Achilles injury.

Dream’s Nightmare Should Continue

I’m going to start with the total for this game. My model projects this number to be a bit higher around 165.5 but initially, I admit I thought it was a bit high especially with three players on the Dream ruled out.

However, the total is 14-10 (+3.08 units) to the over in Atlanta’s games with an opening number of 161 or 161.5. That trend is currently on a 5-0 run.

The play I’m actually more interested in is fading the Dream, as part of a 4.5-point teaser. Atlanta’s lost 10 straight games, and while the team has tried to rally around the players available, I don’t think the firepower is there for them to keep pace with a Dallas team led by Arike Ogunbowale and her 19.1 points per game. Dallas also comes into this game with plenty of motivation as it needs to continue winning games to hold on to its current playoff spot.

Pick: Wings -2 for the first leg of two-team 4.5 point teaser (+103)

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Sparks vs. Lynx

Sparks Odds +6.5
Lynx Odds -6.5
Moneyline +240 / -300
Over/Under 152.5
Time Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Thursday and via BetMGM

Injuries & News

Los Angeles lists three players on the injury report: Chiney Ogwumike (7.8) is questionable with a knee injury. Kristi Toliver (9.4 points per game) and Jasmine Walker are both ruled out.

Minnesota lists three players on the injury report: Sylvia Fowles (16.6 points per game) is questionable with a shoulder injury. Layshia Clarendon (10.5) and Damiris Dantas (7.7) are ruled out.

Sparks Lacking Star Power

I’ve gotten a chance to watch the last few games of the Sparks, and they are really struggling offensively. Los Angeles is last in the league in scoring (73.1 points per game), and it’s hard to think that even the 6-19 Fever, with four fewer wins, are scoring more points (75 points per game).

Defensively, the Sparks allow the second-fewest points (78.4 points per game), but that has more to do with their ability to control the tempo — they’re 10th in terms of pace with 78.81 possessions per 40 minutes. They’re actually sixth in the league with a 98.5 defensive rating. I envision another slower-paced game involving Los Angeles.

The total is 17-9 (+6.72 units) to the under in Sparks games this season and 294-254-3 for 25.17 units overall.

As far as a side in this matchup is concerned, this will be the third meeting between Los Angeles and Minnesota. The Lynx won the two previous meetings by a combined total of 41 points. I see this as a bad matchup for the Sparks because they don’t have anyone who can score as consistently as Napheesa Collier (16.6 points per game). I like the Lynx as the second leg of my 4.5 point teaser.

Pick: Lynx -2 for the first leg of two-team 4.5 point teaser (+103)

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Sky vs. Aces

Sky Odds +6.5
Aces Odds -6.5
Moneyline +240 / -300
Over/Under 152.5
Time Thursday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Thursday and via BetMGM

Injuries & News

Astou Ndour-Fall (7.0 points per game) is the only Chicago player on the injury report. She’s listed as questionable with a foot injury and will be a game-time decision.

The Aces have ruled out Liz Cambage (14.7 points per game) and Dearica Hamby (11.7).

Cambage’s Absence Moves Line

The Aces opened as high as a 7-point favorite in this matchup, but they’ve been quickly bet down to -4.5. I suspect much of that has to do with the absence of Cambage due to COVID-19.

With Cambage out, I think you have to fancy the Sky in this spot. While they didn’t come through for me on Tuesday against the Mercury, I did some research and saw that I overlooked a key point in my handicap.

Chicago’s Candace Parker often struggles against bigger players because they limit her involvement in and around the rim. She managed just two points in 24 minutes, but I think this matchup suits her better with Cambage out.

Chicago should be much better on the interior this game, and it’s also a much better perimeter team, as evidenced by its 7.3 3-point field goals game. Las Vegas is second-last in the league in this category with 4.9 3-pointers per game.

Take the points here with the road dog.

Pick: Sky +4.5

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Liberty vs. Storm

Liberty Odds +12
Storm Odds -12
Moneyline 163
Over/Under +525 / -760
Time Thursday, 10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings

Injuries & News

New York lists Sami Whitcomb (12.3 points per game), Michaela Onyenwere (8.8), and Jazmine Jones (6.7) as questionable.

Seattle ruled out Jordin Canada (5.9 points per game) with a knee injury.

Look For Both Teams To Start Fast

My model makes Seattle an 11.18-point favorite which is right in line with the market at 11.5. The Liberty actually won the first meeting, but the team lacks consistency due to its reliance on the 3-point shot.

New York leads the league with 10.2 3-pointers per game, but it’s sandwiched at its bottom in points allowed (85.6 points per game) between two 6-19 teams. I don’t trust the Liberty in this spot, and laying double-digits is something I’m not fond of doing.

The total is something I’m much more interested in, but I prefer the first quarter to the full game. Seattle’s also a good 3-point shooting team in its own right. It’s third in the league with 8.6 3-pointers per game.

Both teams have a tendency to shoot from long range in the first quarter. In the two previous meetings, they combined to score 45 and 53 points in the first quarter. DraftKings is offering a total of 41.5, and I like the over in this spot.

Pick: 1Q Total Over 40.5

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