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Sunday WNBA Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Wings vs. Aces, Liberty vs. Mercury & More (June 13)

Sunday WNBA Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Wings vs. Aces, Liberty vs. Mercury & More (June 13) article feature image

Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu

  • The WNBA has a quartet of games on Sunday tipping off throughout the afternoon with some of its biggest stars in action.
  • Michael Arinze has analyzed all for games from a betting perspective as well as provided injury updates.
  • See how Arinze is betting the day's action that concludes with a pair of 6 p.m. ET games, below.

One of the unique things about the WNBA season is that the top eight teams in the league make the postseason regardless of which conference they play in. That means if a team gets hot and make a run, they can quickly find themselves in playoff contention.

With only 12 teams in the league, this can happen rather fast, as wins and losses tend to have a ripple effect in the league. We can see that clearly in the standings as the team with the fourth-best record (Liberty) is only two games ahead of the team in eleventh place (Sky).

This type of scenario adds a tremendous amount of competitive balance to the league, and that’s what makes it such a great watch.

With four more games on the schedule for Sunday, there’s still plenty of jockeying for positions to take place. So let’s dive right in and look at the matchups to see if we can find some profitable angles from a wagering perspective.

Projected WNBA Odds

Click on a matchup to skip ahead
Matchup Time Proj. Spread Proj. Total
Storm on Sun 2 p.m. ET Storm -2.18 162.93
Mystics vs. Dream 3:30 p.m. ET Mystic -4.96 165.41
Wings vs. Aces 6 p.m. ET Aces -6.30 169.05
Liberty vs. Mercury 6 p.m. ET Mercury -1.01 164.86

Storm vs. Sun Odds

Storm Odds -4.5
Sun Odds +4.5
Moneyline -200/+170
Over/Under 157.5
Time 2 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

Seattle’s Mikiah Herbert Harrigan will not play for the team for the remainder of the season as she’s expecting a child.

Jonquel Jones (21.6 PPG) will miss Connecticut’s next four games while competing in the FIBA Women’s EuroBasket 2021. Jones is a native of the Bahamas but has held Bosnian citizenship since May 2019. In addition, Alyssa Thomas is expected to miss the entire season after tearing her Achilles while playing overseas in January.

Sun Hurt By Loss Of Jones

This handicap really comes down to the absence of Jones. This will be Connecticut’s first game this season without her, and that loss could prove to be very significant when they take on the defending WNBA champions.

My model actually had Connecticut as a slight favorite, but that changed to Seattle after adjusting for Jones’s absence.

Connecticut lost both games last year against Seattle by a combined margin of 36 points. The Sun played those games without Jones, who chose to opt out of the season due to the coronavirus pandemic.

I can’t see Connecticut improving on those results with Jones not involved in the game again.

The first line I saw for this game was Seattle as a one-point favorite. That was slightly lower than my projection (-2.08), but this line has already been bet up with Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite.

With some of that value already gone, I’d look to play the Storm as part of a two-team 4.5-point teaser at +103 odds.

Pick: Seattle PK (First leg of a 4.5-point teaser)

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Mystics vs. Dream Odds

Mystics Odds -4
Dream Odds +4
Moneyline -172/+145
Over/Under 166
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

Washington lists four players on the injury report: Natasha Cloud (7.2 PPG) is probable with a hip flexor injury. Sydney Wiese (6.2 PPG) was listed as questionable for Thursday’s game but did not play. Her status has yet to be updated at this time.  Elena Delle Donne is still out indefinitely following a second surgery on her back in December. And lastly, Alysha Clark is done for the year after opting for surgery to address a Lisfranc injury in her right foot.

Atlanta’s Chennedy Carter (15.7 PPG) remains on the injury report after hyperextending her right elbow on May 29 against the Liberty. She was listed as doubtful for Friday’s game against the Storm, but there is no update to her status at this time.

Monitor Atlanta’s Lineup

You always want to be mindful of injuries to star players, and Carter’s availability is certainly one to keep an eye on. The Texas A&M product has missed Atlanta’s last four games, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that each of them resulted in a loss.

Additionally, Carter is ranked in the top 25 of player efficiency (PER) with a 19.2 rating. Thus, any action placed on this game requires full knowledge of her status.

My model is a bit more bullish on the Mystics if Carter is ruled out as I project Washington as a five-point favorite. As for the total, my model is directly in line with the market, so there’s really no value at the current number. That leaves only the side as a possible play on the Mystics if Carter is ruled out.

Lean: Mystics -3.5 at FanDuel If Carter is ruled out.

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Wings vs. Aces Odds

Wings Odds +7.5
Aces Odds -7.5
Moneyline +260/-338
Over/Under 170
Time 6 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

There are no injuries to report for Dallas at this time.

As for Las Vegas, Angel McCoughtry is the only player listed on its injury report. McCoughtry suffered a torn ACL right before the start of the season in a preseason scrimmage.

Wings Have Been On A Roll

I don’t think there’s any team I find more intriguing than Dallas. The Wings come into this matchup on a three-game winning streak, and they’ve won four of their last five games. Although Dallas has lost five games this season, none of those losses were by more than seven points.

They recently defeated the Storm 68-67 and could have picked up another win against Seattle if not for a Jewell Lloyd game-winner with less than a second on the clock in the first overtime.

JEWELL LOYD CALLS GAME! 😤 @jewellloyd#CountIt

— WNBA (@WNBA) June 5, 2021

I suspect that part of the Wings’ success has to do with the return of Satou Sabally, who missed their first six games of the season. Sabally helps add an interior presence and averages 12 points with 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

She’ll be key in trying to slow down the Las Vegas duo of A’ja Wilson and Liz Cambage on the inside.

However, Dallas does have the edge with their perimeter play as they’re fourth with 8.6 made three-pointers per game while Las Vegas is dead last with 4.6 per game.

My model projects the Aces as no more than a 6.5-point favorite. As a result, I like they have value as an eight-point underdog, and I like them even more, getting 12.5 points as the second leg of my two-team teaser.

Pick/: Wings +12.5 (Second leg of a 4.5-point teaser)

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Liberty vs. Mercury Odds

Liberty Odds +5.5
Mercury Odds -5.5
Moneyline +195/-242
Over/Under 161.5
Time 6 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

New York’s Natasha Howard (14.5 PPG) will be out four to six weeks with an MCL sprain in her left knee, while Jocelyn Willoughby is done for the season after tearing her Achilles’ in a team scrimmage.

Phoenix’s Diana Taurasi (15.8 PPG) remains out after suffering a fractured sternum. The three-time WNBA champion is not expected to return until late June. Bria Hartley is also out for the Mercury as she continues her rehab for a torn ACL last August. However, there is some optimism that she could return before the Olympic break in early July.

Liberty’s Record Is Deceiving

I’m still a bit puzzled about how good this New York Liberty team is. They won their first three games and five of six to start the season. The fact is that the schedule was a bit kind for them as they opened with a home-and-home against Indiana, who have just one win on the season. They later picked up wins against Minnesota, Chicago and Dallas, though all of those teams were missing key players.

Now, they’ll travel to Phoenix on a three-game losing streak, with two of those losses coming against Las Vegas and Connecticut by double-digits. The common theme in those games was that both opponents presented a considerable challenge for New York in the frontcourt due to their size and physicality.

The Mercury will present a similar problem to the Liberty in this game.

I do like Phoenix’s chances to cover the number in this game, particularly if they can slow the game against the Liberty. My only question is whether they have enough scoring if it’s a faster pace.

Phoenix managed just 59 points in their last game at home against Dallas. The loss of Taurasi is tough to replace, considering that she’s the point guard who pulls strings for the Mercury.

While my model projects Phoenix as roughly a one-point favorite, I’m not certain I’m ready to commit to New York in this spot.

Pick: Pass

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