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WNBA Odds, Picks, Predictions: Storm vs. Dream & Fever vs. Sky (Wednesday, June 9)

WNBA Odds, Picks, Predictions: Storm vs. Dream & Fever vs. Sky (Wednesday, June 9) article feature image

Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Candace Parker.

The story of this WNBA season might be the six game-winning buzzer-beaters that fans have been treated to thus far. While yesterday’s action failed to produce any new last-second game-winners, both games were remarkably competitive, with Dallas and Washington each winning by a four-point margin.

In fact, both games actually finished with an exact 85-81 scoreline. It’s important to note that we’re barely a month into the season, and the players are already playing at a very high level.

With two more games to follow on Wednesday, let’s dive right in and look at today’s matchups with the Storm traveling to Atlanta to take on the Dream and the Sky hosting the Fever in Chicago.

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Projected WNBA Odds

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Matchup Time Proj. Spread Proj. Total
Storm at Dream 7 p.m. ET Storm -7.40 172.44
Fever at Sky 8 p.m. ET Sky -13.5 157.90

Storm vs. Dream Odds

Storm Odds -9 (-109)
Dream Odds +9 (-117)
Moneyline -480 / +340
Over/Under 170
Time 7 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

There are no new injuries or absences to report for the Storm.

Chennedy Carter (15.7 PPG) is the only Dream player listed on the injury report after hyperextending her right elbow on May 29 against the Liberty. The initial timeline had her returning for this matchup, so she could be a game-time decision.

Atlanta Remains Undervalued In The Market

My model is a bit more bullish on the Dream, and frankly, I’d probably be even more confident if Carter was suiting up for the game. Carter was a key player in Atlanta’s four-game winning streak, but it has now lost the last two games since she’s been out.

I’m not going to overreact to its 20-point loss to Minnesota on the road. After all, it was the Dream’s second game against the Lynx in three days, and Minnesota is a team that was likely to go on a bit of a run after getting all of its pieces back.

Keep in mind that before the game, Atlanta was on a 5-0 ATS run. Even with that blowout loss, it still has an average point differential of -2.6 through eight games this season. One reason it’s performed well against the spread has to do with its offensive rebounding.

The Dream lead the league with 11.3 offensive rebounds per game, whereas their opponent, Seattle, sits ninth with just seven boards in this category.

If you like Atlanta, I would advise waiting to fire on this game when Carter’s status is officially released.

Pace Should Be Key In This Matchup

If Carter is ruled out, I would still look to play this game over the total which has also cashed in Atlanta’s last five games for 4.66 units.

  • Atlanta ranks second in the league in 82.65 possessions per game, while Seattle is fourth at 81.97 per game.
  • My model projects an even faster pace, with each team having close to 86 possessions in this game.

And with Seattle ranked second in the league with 9.3 3-pointers per game against an Atlanta team that’s 10th in allowing 8.3 per game, I expect that we’ll see another high-scoring contest.

Pick/Lean: Over 168 (Play to 171.5)

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Fever vs. Sky Odds

Fever Odds +10.5
Sky Odds -10.5
Moneyline +400 / -590
Over/Under 158
Time 8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

The Fever list Tiffany Mitchell (9.9 PPG) and Jessica Breland (8.3 PPG) as questionable on Wednesday. Mitchell is dealing with a quad injury, while Breland has a non-COVID-19 related illness. In addition, Bernadett Hatar (6.7 PPG) has already been ruled out with an ankle injury, and Aaliyah Wilson (foot) remains sidelined until late June.

The Sky could have Candace Parker (16 PPG) back on the court as her status has been upgraded to probable following an ankle injury. However, Astou Ndour-Fall (10.1  PPG) has been ruled out as she’s currently away from the team for a non-injury-related matter.

Parker Can Add Plenty To Chicago’s Defense

There’s nothing wrong with being a contrarian player, but you’d probably want to stay clear of the Fever. They’ve fallen into bad habits yet again and have lost their last five games by at least 15 points, and two of them were by 35 points.

I initially saw this line open with Chicago favored by six points, but that number has ballooned to as high as 10.5 in the market. I actually project Chicago as a 13.5-point favorite, but obviously, I would much rather lay the six points. With that said, I would look to playing the under in this spot.

I’d expect the Sky to play with even greater intensity on the defensive end if Parker does play in this game. There’s just something different about having the 2020 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year lace them up alongside this team.

Many pundits picked Chicago to be a contender this year, and even though it’s 2-7, it can still make a run into the top eight in the league to qualify for the playoffs.

Even with Parker missing its last eight games, Chicago is tied for first with a 93.1 defensive rating. That should improve if she’s back in the fold.

Offensively, neither team is ranked higher than 10th in both offensive rating and 3-point field goals per game.

The total is also 6-3 to the under in Chicago’s games this season, so I think we’ll see more of the same in this matchup as well.

Pick/Lean: Under 161 (Play to 158)

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