The 77th Emmy Awards will air live on Sunday, September 14, at 8 p.m. ET from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles. The ceremony will be broadcast on CBS and streamed on Paramount+, with comedian Nate Bargatze serving as host.
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Below is my breakdown of key categories and my Emmys predictions and best bets for Sunday night.
Oustanding Drama
Odds via FanDuel
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Severance | -250 | 71.43% |
| The Pitt | +210 | 32.26% |
| The White Lotus | +1400 | 6.67% |
| The Last of Us | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Andor | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Paradise | +2800 | 3.45% |
| Slow Horses | +2800 | 3.45% |
| The Diplomat | +3500 | 2.78% |
The betting odds might not indicate it, but I believe this year's Outstanding Drama race is the most wide-open race we've seen in a long time.
Five of the eight shows in the field have previously been nominated in the category, but none of them were ever considered true contenders in the past.
The oddsmakers have confidently deemed Severance as the next show to claim the title at -225, and rightfully so, as it leads the entire field in total nominations (27). However, I think there's value to be found on the board here.
I'm no hater of Severance, which is currently my favorite show airing, and I will stand and cheer as Ben Stiller and Co. walk on stage if it wins the top prize.
However, as a big fan of the show, and somebody curious about the future direction of the series, Severance simply isn't a complete story. It's still a mystery box with dozens of questions to be answered, and tends to lack focus in its general narrative for frustrating periods of time.
Plus, Severance is weird, and it certainly isn't everyone's cup of tea. I'm a bit skeptical of The Academy rallying behind the show and awarding it the top prize at such a steep price tag.
Freshman series, The Pitt, is listed second on the oddsboard at +250. Another worthy candidate, The Pitt's acting, execution, and writing is almost flawless.
However, the medical drama is a tried-and-true formula. The Pitt is a blast from the past, a breath of fresh air, and certainly deserves to be nominated. But I don’t see it winning the top prize either. It feels too cookie-cutter to actually win.
That brings us to the mid-tier longshot range, which consists of The White Lotus, The Last of Us, and Andor, which is where I believe the best value lies.
The Emmys have always been fond of The White Lotus. The show ran the table in the Limited Series category back in Season 1, before shifting to the Drama category in Season 2, where it also picked up a nomination to go along with a second Supporting Actress win for Jennifer Coolidge.
This year appears to be no different, with The White Lotus picking up 23 nominations, the second-most in the category, including a whopping seven supporting actors nominated. So, a win for TWL wouldn't surprise me either, and will likely be the most popular underdog pick of the bunch.
Season 1 of The Last of Us was brilliant, and if any show had a fighting chance at taking down Succession Season 4 in 2023, I thought The Last of Us would be show to do it. However, Season 2 was a major step backward in many different ways. I think they missed their window.
So, by somewhat process of elimination, I think there's actually a good chance we see Andor take home the top prize at this year's Emmys.
Andor Season 2 received 14 Emmy nominations, the fourth-most in the field, despite only receiving one nomination in an acting category (Forest Whitaker – Guest Actor).
Andor isn't a goofy sci-fi show filled with light sabers and force-wielders. But even if it were, that wouldn't necessarily eliminate it from the race.
The television and movie academies have both shown their fondness for the Star Wars franchise in the past. "A New Hope" picked up a Best Picture nomination and took home six Oscars in 1978.
More recently at the Emmys, The Mandalorian was nominated for Oustanding Drama in two of its three seasons (2020, 2021). Obi-Wan Kenobi was also nominated for Outstanding Limited Series. Although, neither series was considered a legitimate contender in its respective category.
Season 1 of Andor fell in a similar bucket, especially with powerhouses such as Succession and Better Call Saul crowding the field back in 2023.
However, while it may be a Star Wars property, Andor showrunner Tony Gilroy is a two-time Oscar nominated filmmaker. And Andor is an epic, grounded war drama that beautifully illustrates all the moving parts and sacrifices of a rebellion, with Shakespearean dialogue and storytelling, accompanied by some stellar acting performances and visuals.
Instead of asking new questions about the universe it resides in, Andor answers questions and expands the boundaries of a beloved mythos, serving as a brilliant prequel to an Oscar-winning film.
Don't sleep on Andor in the Drama category. But pick your poison. I also think The White Lotus is a good bet.
Picks: Andor (+2300) or The White Lotus (+1400)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Rogan (The Studio) | -700 | 87.5% |
| Martin Short (Only Murders In The Building) | +650 | 13.33% |
| Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) | +1700 | 5.56% |
| Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) | +3100 | 3.13% |
| Jason Segel (Shrinking) | +3500 | 2.78% |
Freshman comedy series The Studio is listed as a -750 favorite to take home Outstanding Comedy at this year’s Emmys.
While I remain confident show creators Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg will take home plenty of hardware at this year’s Emmys, including Outstanding Comedy, I’m a little less confident in Rogen himself taking home Outstanding Lead Actor.
I don't think Season 4 of The Bear was good enough to fool the Emmys into awarding it the top prize again. However, I do think there's a chance it might've unfairly reopened the door for Jeremy Allen White to make it 3-for-3 in the lead actor category.
Or maybe the door was open all along. We’ll never know. It’s kind of like when MVP awards are technically supposed to be “regular season awards,” but they don't vote until after playoffs.
The common belief is that the television academy tends to shake things up, spread out the awards to different actors and shows. But do they really? Look across the aisle at the category of Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy. Jean Smart has won for all three seasons of Hacks, and she’s a heavy favorite (-900) to win again this year.
Once the academy falls in love with an actor in a particular role, it’s rare to see them break stride. Smart is expected to win again this year in the comedy actress category, so why are we so certain the academy is ready to hop off the Jeremy Allen White bandwagon?
Prior to the debut of The Studio, Rogen had only been nominated for one acting Emmy (Pam & Tommy), and never won nor truly considered a legit contender in any category.
Push comes to shove, I do think The Studio was the best comedy on TV this year, and I think it will win Outstanding Comedy. It leads the entire category in nominations with 23.
However, Rogen’s performance in The Studio isn't overly nuanced. He basically just plays a version of the same character he always plays. But this time, he’s the head of a movie studio, which allows him to be an excellent sidekick and help prop up the impressive cast of supporting and guest actors the show cycles throughout its run.
But the show never truly gives Rogen the chance to shine alone and reach the heights he’s capable of hitting as an actor dramatically nor comedically. The strength of the show is in its writing and the brilliance of its concept and execution. Not necessarily its acting. One could actually argue that Rogen is somewhat miscast in the role. But it’s his show, and it's the rightful betting favorite to win Outstanding Comedy, so who are we to judge?
On the other side of that same coin, The Bear was basically engineered in a lab to win actors awards. It’s an actors’ showcase, and it’s a bit of a cheat-code when it comes to this category.
The Bear is an incredibly well-acted drama that competes in the comedy category. There’s very few comedic elements in the show, so I’ve always bumped up against the notion of the show taking home the top prize in the category.
However, as previously mentioned, there’s no denying the fact the acting in The Bear is great, regardless of how funny it is. The nature of the show’s somber dramatic storytelling deeply rooted in trauma gives the characters extra layers for the actors to tap into, layers that aren't usually available to actors nominated in this category.
It’s paid huge dividends for them at the Emmys in the past, with The Bear picking up eight acting wins in its first two seasons (three guest, three supporting, two lead), and 21 Emmys in total.
This one almost feels too obvious. Surely this is a trap. But if it hits at +1700, I’m going to feel dumb if I didn't bet it. So, I’m going to take a flier on it.
White has been nominated and won the Emmy in this category both times he was up for consideration. Rogen has never been considered a serious contender in any acting category at any major awards show.
And, the oddsmakers are giving us White at +1700, implying less than a 6% chance of him winning the award?
I’m no staunch defender of The Bear. I actually think the show is overrated in many ways. But this just seems like an irresponsible price tag to offer on a guy who’s already won in this category twice. His performance was just as strong in Season 3 as it was in seasons past. The show just took a major step backward as a whole, and people seem to generally assume there's a new sheriff in town in the comedy category across the board.
However, I’m not so sure about this category in particular. White still has the championship belt as far as I’m concerned. Rogen may be rightfully favored to take it from him this year, but there’s value to be had on the two-time winner in this category to retain the belt at +1700.
