Where in America Are You Most Likely to See the Northern Lights?

The index combines four key factors: latitude (“Aurora Reach”), the number of clear nights each year, statewide sky darkness and average humidity. These are weighted, blended and converted into one comparable Aurora Viewing Chance (%) for every state.

Note: This index ranks states by how favorable their sky and climate conditions are for aurora visibility—not how often auroras occur overhead. In years when auroral activity pushes far south, states with the clearest and darkest skies often perform better than northern states with frequent cloud cover.

Below are the 20 states with the strongest long-term conditions for aurora visibility.

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Key Findings from the Aurora Odds Index

• Arizona ranks No. 1 overall in the U.S. in our Aurora Odds Index.
  Exceptionally dry desert air, abundant clear nights and low light pollution give Arizona the strongest modeled conditions for aurora visibility, even compared with Alaska.
• Alaska remains the nation’s natural aurora stronghold — but weather pushes it to No. 4 in the index.
  Frequent cloud cover and higher humidity reduce its score, even though it sits directly under the auroral oval and sees auroras more often than any other state.
• The Mountain West dominates the top of the index.
  Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho, Colorado and Wyoming all rank inside the top eight thanks to high elevation, dry air and widespread dark skies.
• Northern latitude alone is not enough.
  States like Minnesota and Maine score well, but humidity and cloud cover keep several northern states lower than expected.
• Clear skies matter as much as geography.
  Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma all rank in the top 20 because their frequent clear nights boost visibility even at lower latitudes.
• Light pollution severely limits aurora potential in many eastern states.
  Even where latitude is favorable, bright suburban corridors and coastal moisture significantly reduce viewing chances.
• The best states to see the northern lights consistently combine four traits:
  high latitude, dark skies, dry air and steady clear-night frequency.

Top 20 States Most Likely to See the Aurora

Expert Comment

A Senior Data Analyst at The Action Network explains how the index reveals the real drivers behind aurora visibility:

“Latitude is only part of the equation. Dry air, dark skies and frequent clear nights can dramatically improve aurora visibility, even in states that aren’t traditionally associated with the northern lights.”

They add:

“The Aurora Viewing Chance isn’t a forecast — it’s a long-term indicator of how naturally favorable each state’s conditions are. It shows where the environment is working for you, and where it’s working against you.”

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Tips for Viewing the Aurora

Seeing the northern lights depends on timing, location and sky conditions. These simple guidelines can improve your chances anywhere in the country:

• Choose the darkest sky possible. Move away from city lights — even 20 to 30 minutes outside an urban area can dramatically improve visibility.
• Look north and aim for a clear horizon. Auroras usually appear low on the northern horizon in mid-latitude states, so open fields, hilltops and lakeshores work best.
• Check for low humidity and clear skies. Dry, crisp air makes faint auroras easier to spot. Nights after a cold front often offer the best clarity.
• Go out late and stay patient. Most auroral activity peaks between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. during strong geomagnetic storms.
• Avoid moonlit nights when possible. A bright Moon can wash out weaker auroras, especially in lower-latitude states.
• Give your eyes time to adjust. It can take 15–30 minutes for night vision to peak. Avoid checking your phone during this period.
• Use real-time aurora alerts. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and major aurora tracking apps provide Kp index updates and storm alerts that help identify the best viewing windows.

Methodology

The Aurora Odds Index compares all 50 states using long-term environmental factors that directly affect how often the northern lights can be seen. Because aurora visibility depends as much on local sky conditions as on solar activity, the index focuses on four measurable variables: latitude, clear skies, darkness and humidity.

Aurora Reach measures each state’s latitude and how close it sits to the auroral zone. Clear Nights captures how often skies are cloud-free, using NOAA climate normals. Sky Darkness reflects statewide light-pollution levels, which determine whether faint auroras can be seen at all. Humidity accounts for atmospheric moisture, which can dull or obscure weaker displays.

Each metric is scaled to a 0–100 range, weighted by its influence (Aurora Reach 40%, Clear Nights 25%, Sky Darkness 20%, Humidity 15%), and combined into a single composite score. That score is then converted into the Aurora Viewing Chance (%) — a simple measure of how favorable each state’s conditions are in a typical year with active solar activity.

The index does not predict specific nights or storms. It highlights where the environment naturally makes aurora sightings most likely.

Sources

The Aurora Odds Index is built using publicly available environmental and astronomical datasets. Core inputs are drawn from the following sources:

Latitude (Aurora Reach)

• List of U.S. State Capitals — Geographic coordinates

Clear Nights / Clear Days Data

• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) — Climate Normals (sunshine & cloud-cover data)
• World Population Review — Sunniest States (compiled from NOAA)

Humidity Data

• NOAA NCEI — Local Climatological Data (Humidity Normals)
• World Population Review — Most Humid States (compiled from NOAA)

Sky Darkness / Light Pollution

• International Dark-Sky Association (IDA) — U.S. dark-sky regions
• New World Atlas of Artificial Night Sky Brightness (Falchi et al., 2016)
• Light Pollution Map (VIIRS satellite brightness, based on Falchi et al.)

You can explore the full state-by-state numbers in the complete dataset behind the Aurora Odds Index.