League of Legends China LPL and Korea LCK Breakdown (6/30-7/1): Invictus Looks for Revenge
- The Chinese and Korean leagues are in Week 3 of the new split.
- Teams are still adjusting to the new metagame.
- Betting lines are still heavily influenced by last season’s hierarchy, which has little bearing in this meta.
It’s Week 3 of the summer split, and the story of this new season continues to be the new metagame and how teams are adapting to it. Some teams are sticking with the new mage-and-bruiser bottom lanes while others have gone back to traditional attack damage carry (ADC) compositions. In the LCK, we’ve seen the most bottom-lane innovation and experimentation so far.
The summer-split picks I’ve recommended in articles and on Twitter are 29-19 (+7.75 units).
If you’re new to eSports, check out my League introduction. While I focus primarily on League betting in this breakdown, it has relevance to daily fantasy as well. If you’re playing League DFS, be sure to check out my evergreen strategy pieces.
- Three biggest esports DFS mistakes and how to avoid them
- Two most important stats for League DFS
- How to build a winning League lineup
For DFS, pay attention to the Kills per Win (KPW) and Deaths per Loss (DPL) numbers for this split. In general, you’ll want to roster players on teams with high KPWs playing against teams with high DPLs. Keep in mind, though, that we are early in the season; the samples are small.
For more League action, see my other regional breakdowns for this weekend.
All lines are from Bovada.
- PSG.LGD: 19.0
- JD Gaming: 18.7
- Vici Gaming: 17.7
- Royal Never Give Up: 21.0
- JD Gaming: 18.2
- Vici Gaming: 17.8
Invictus Gaming vs. Royal Never Give Up: Saturday 6/30 at 7:00 a.m. ET
- Invictus: -115
- RNG: -110
- Bet: Invictus -115
These are the two best teams in China, and we should see a great match no matter the outcome, but Invictus has a larger edge than the one implied by these odds. They were probably the most dominant team in the world last season up until a collapse against RNG in the semifinals, when their backup top-laner was forced to play. Starting top-laner TheShy is tentatively expected to return for this revenge game, and he’ll be the difference.
OMG vs FunPlus Phoenix: Sunday 7/1 at 2:00 a.m. ET
- OMG: +110
- Phoenix: -135
- Bet: OMG +110
These lines are heavily based on last year’s results, which no longer seem predictive. I came into this split thinking it was Phoenix’s time to break out, but the offseason loss of their jungler has affected them in unexpected ways. They’ve looked lost, managing to win only four games. OMG, however, has improved this season. They’re still not great, but the versatility of Chelly in the bottom lane gives them a valuable edge in champ select.
EDward Gaming vs. Rogue Warriors: Sunday 7/1 at 7:00 a.m. ET
- Rogue Warriors: -110
- EDG: -115
- Bet: Rogue Warriors -110
Once again, these lines are heavily influenced by last season. Rogue Warriors are on an absolute rampage right now at 8-0. EDG has looked acceptable at 6-3, but they are still trying to figure out this meta: Their drafts have been erratic, and they’ve frequently misused iBoy in the bottom lane. Later in the season EDG could stand up to Rogue Warriors, but right now they are two teams in different phases of understanding the meta.
- Team MVP: 15.3
- Afreeca Freecs: 15.2
- Griffin: 14.4
- KINGZONE DragonX: 17.6
- KT Rolster: 16.0
- SK Telecom T1: 15.3
Afreeca Freecs vs. Gen.G: Sunday 7/1 at 4:00 a.m. ET
- Afreeca: -140
- Gen.G: +110
- Bet: Gen.G +110
Both of these teams have looked like above-average units so far, but that’s not what was expected of them when the split started. Everyone expected Afreeca to ride the wave of last season’s finals appearance, but they’ve lost their last two matches, one of which was to the mediocre Hanwha Life Esports. Meanwhile Gen.G, which was expected to be a bottom-of-the-table team (especially in this meta), is a strong 5-1, with their only loss coming to the volatile KT Rolster. These two teams are closely matched, and if the odds were reversed I’d probably take Afreeca. As it is, I like the positive odds on Gen.G.
That’s all I’ve got for China and Korea. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Nty9problemsDFS, where I will post additional picks throughout the weekend.