League of Legends North America LCS Breakdown (6/30-7/1): What Does the Echo Fox Say?

The Highlights

• The North American league is in Week 3 of the summer split.
• Some teams are still adjusting to the new metagame, but most have reverted to old strategies.
• Betting lines are still heavily influenced by last season’s hierarchy, which has little bearing in this meta.

It’s Week 3 of the summer split, and the story of this new season continues to be the new metagame and how teams are adapting to it. Some teams are sticking with the new mage-and-bruiser bottom lanes — EchoFox is one of the few teams playing well with new strategies — but most North American teams last week shifted back to traditional attack damage carry (ADC) compositions, which will probably be the norm moving forward.

The summer-split picks I’ve recommended in articles and on Twitter are 29-19 (+7.75 units).

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If you’re new to eSports, check out my League introduction. While I focus primarily on League betting in this breakdown, it has relevance to daily fantasy as well. If you’re playing League DFS, be sure to check out my evergreen strategy pieces.

• Three biggest esports DFS mistakes and how to avoid them
• Two most important stats for League DFS
• How to build a winning League lineup

For DFS, pay attention to the Kills per Win (KPW) and Deaths per Loss (DPL) numbers for this split. In general, you’ll want to roster players on teams with high KPWs playing against teams with high DPLs. Keep in mind, though, that we are early in the season; the samples are small.

For more League action, see my other regional breakdowns for this weekend.

• European LCS
• China LPL and Korea LCK

All lines are from Bovada.

KPW Leaders

1. Echo Fox: 19.6
2. Clutch Gaming: 17.5
3. Golden Guardians: 17.5

DPL Laggards

1. Team Liquid: 20.0
2. FlyQuest: 17.6
3. Clutch Gaming: 16.5

Bets

Team Liquid vs. Echo Fox: Saturday 6/30 at 6:00 p.m. ET

• Liquid: -165
• Echo Fox: +130
• Bet: Echo Fox +130

Echo Fox isn't getting a lot of respect even though they and Liquid have the same 3-1 record. Here we should see a clash of the old and new styles: Liquid will use DoubleLift in a traditional ADC composition, while Echo Fox will use Huni in whatever composition he feels like playing at the time. Even though most North American teams are shifting back to their old style of play, the newer strategies are stronger when executed correctly, and nobody right now is executing them better in North America than Echo Fox.

100 Thieves vs. Clutch Gaming: Saturday 6/30 at 7:00 p.m. ET

• 100 Thieves: -145
• Clutch Gaming: +115
• Bet: Clutch Gaming +115

Both teams are 2-2, but 100 Thieves have won against only bottom-of-the-barrel opponents. They haven't looked particularly strong and still have a lot to figure out in this meta. Clutch has been better in longer-game scenarios, and 100 Thieves haven't shown that they can finish games quickly against decent opposition. Clutch has the superior first blood rate (75% vs. 25%), and going back to the end of last season 100 Thieves have looked incapable of coming back from a deficit.

FlyQuest vs. Golden Guardians: Saturday 6/30 at 8:00 p.m. ET

• Flyquest: -105
• Golden Guardians: -120
• Bet: Golden Guardians -120

Golden Guardians are the surprise of the season so far. They already have multiple quality wins and have looked great after an abysmal spring season. The roster changes they made seem to be working perfectly, and FlyQuest are currently looking at a dead-last finish in this split unless something drastic happens.

Counter Logic Gaming vs. FlyQuest: Sunday 7/1 at 4:00 p.m. ET

• CLG: -190
• FlyQuest: +155
• Bet: CLG -190

CLG has been inconsistent in this split but is one of the few teams capable of playing the new meta well. FlyQuest, in comparison, has been extremely consistent — in a horrible way. They've been battered back and forth by everyone except an equally weak OpTic team. I won't be predicting any FlyQuest wins in the near future.

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That’s all I’ve got for North America. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Nty9problemsDFS, where I will post additional picks throughout the weekend.

Until next time, I’ll see you on the rift.