Ducks-Jets Betting Preview: Can John Gibson Keep Anaheim in Another Game?

Ducks-Jets Betting Preview: Can John Gibson Keep Anaheim in Another Game? article feature image
Credit:

Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports. Pictured: John Gibson

Betting odds: Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets

  • Ducks moneyline: +187
  • Jets moneyline: -220
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


The Anaheim Ducks have the second-worst goal differential in the Western Conference and spent most of December and January mired in an 11-game losing streak. Somehow, mostly thanks to underwhelming performances from the rest of the conference, the Ducks are just one point outside of the playoffs.

Anaheim has goaltender John Gibson to thank for keeping it in the race. Gibson has put together a sensational season for the Ducks so far. The 25-year-old netminder leads the NHL with a +16 Goals Saved Above Average and his .929 save percentage (5v5) outpaces his .913 expected save percentage by 1.6 basis points.

Without Gibson, the Ducks would be toiling near the bottom of the NHL as they have the worst expected goal (xG) differential per 60 in the NHL. The Ducks allow 2.88 xG/60 while producing just 2.14 xG/60. Those are ugly numbers but teams with great goaltenders always have a chance, even against far superior teams.

Winnipeg is one of the Stanley Cup favorites and the Jets, on the surface, look the part. They sit atop the Central Division with a 33-16-2 record. However, there is cause for concern for Paul Maurice’s squad.

Since Dustin Byfuglien was injured the Jets have played 13 games. In those games they are controlling just 47.5% of the shot share and 46.7% of the high-danger chances per 60. The Jets’ expected goal rates have also tanked lately.

Even with their struggles lately, I expect Winnipeg to control the tempo of this game pretty handily. Anaheim will likely be chasing the game, but that’s nothing new for the Ducks.

The Jets are the stronger team in this tilt and the odds certainly reflect that. According to the current prices, Winnipeg has a 66.4% chance of winning this game, when removing the vigorish. I think that number is too high as the Jets aren’t in great form, despite a 7-3 record in their last 10 games.

Even though the Ducks haven’t confirmed Gibson as the starter yet, I don’t  see any reason why he wouldn’t play this game, so I feel comfortable making this bet now and would suggest the value is on the Ducks until +170.

The Bet: Ducks +187