The Golden Globe nominees are set ahead of the January 11 awards ceremony in Los Angeles. As one of Hollywood’s most influential honors, the Globes are widely seen as an early indicator of what may unfold at the Oscars.
Among the most closely watched categories every year is Best Actor in a Drama Motion Picture. This edition features a compelling slate of contenders — a mix of past nominees and first-timers.
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Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama Odds
The Brazilian drama “The Secret Agent” made history, becoming the first Brazilian film to earn three Golden Globe nominations — including the first-ever nomination for a Brazilian actor in this category: Wagner Moura.
Moura, previously nominated in 2016 for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama for his iconic turn as Pablo Escobar in Narcos, enters as the overwhelming favorite with an 83% probability of winning on Kalshi. He is now acclaimed for his portrayal of a professor caught in the political turmoil of Brazil’s final years under military dictatorship.
Sitting in a distant second with 15% odds is Michael B. Jordan, recognized for his lead role in the supernatural gothic horror film Sinners. It marks Jordan’s first time in this list at the Globes, despite standout performances in blockbusters like Black Panther and Creed.
Further down at 5%, Australian actor Joel Edgerton is nominated for Train Dreams, based on the acclaimed novella. The Netflix film earned him positive reviews and his second nomination in this category, following his 2017 nod for his portrayal of Richard Loving in Loving.
Dwayne Johnson has finally earned his first Golden Globe nomination and holds 3% odds of pulling off an upset. Playing former amateur wrestler and MMA fighter Mark Kerr in Benny Safdie’s new film The Smashing Machine, The Rock received strong praise from critics and audiences alike.
If any nominee is accustomed to the Golden Globes red carpet, it’s Guatemalan-American actor Oscar Isaac, who secured his fourth career nomination for his role in Frankenstein. Isaac previously won a Golden Globe in 2016 for the HBO miniseries Show Me a Hero.
Also nominated — though not listed on Kalshi — is Jeremy Allen White for his portrayal of Bruce Springsteen in the biographical musical drama Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. While the film drew mixed reviews, White’s performance earned consistent acclaim, adding to the momentum he built with his outstanding role in The Bear.
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Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
