Sunday French Open Betting Odds & Picks: How To Bet Garin vs. Medvedev, Zverev vs. Nishikori & More (June 6)
Patrick Hamilton/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Zverev.
It’s hard to believe, but the fourth round of the French Open is already upon us this weekend. As the matches progress, the competition gets even hotter.
We’re getting more and more moneylines that are in a reasonable range, making for some great matches and tremendous value.
With that said, I’ve picked out a few matches I’m betting below.
Cristian Garin vs. Daniil Medvedev
Start Time (approximately): 7:30 a.m. ET
I have written up three blurbs about why it’s smart to fade Daniil Medvedev at this tournament, and this will mark the fourth.
Yes, I have already relented that Medvedev has made progress on the clay surface. He’s seemed to be less rattled by the variance that clay produces, with strange bounces and the ball skidding off the baseline. He’s kept composed and went out and simply taken care of business.
With that said, the competition level for Medvedev hasn’t been all that high. He drew Alexander Bublik first, who hardly made him play any rallies more than five points long, he got a gassed Tommy Paul who faded after winning the first set, and then he had the pleasure of facing a servebot in Reilly Opelka who couldn’t get free points because of adverse serving conditions.
The fact is, this will be the toughest test yet in this tournament for Medvedev, and I’d frankly make Garin the favorite. So, to get +190 odds here is a pretty great deal. The Chilean has established himself as one of the best clay-courters in the world, and literally just beat Medvedev in three sets exactly a month ago in Madrid at a Masters 1000. His relentlessness and expertise on the surface was evident, and he was the clear better player that time. I expect nothing to change with Medvedev only having played four matches since then, including the three here in France. His ground-stroking will really be put to the test, and it shouldn’t pass given the fact that three sets will be required, cutting out some of the variance that a best-of-three provides.
Pick: Garin +202
Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina vs. Federico Delbonis
Start Time (approx.): 9:30 a.m. ET
Similar to my fade of Roger Federer on Saturday with Dominik Koepfer’s game spread, I really don’t want to be fading Davidovich-Fokina here considering he’s one of my favorite players. With that said, all signs point for a fourth-round exit.
Davidovich-Fokina gave everything he had left in a grueling five-set win over the stellar Casper Ruud on Friday, and shouldn’t have the stamina to win three sets here against a player who’s been playing as well as Delbonis has. Fokina was clearly out-classed by Ruud’s stunning topspin forehand, unable to handle that kind of pace and depth at times on Friday. The thing is, Ruud didn’t hit it as much or as well as he would have liked, and didn’t appear to have his A-game.
Delbonis might be in his best form ever entering this tournament, and has now won a tour-best 25 clay court matches in 34 tries this year. He’s been grinding away in smaller tournaments in preparation for this moment, and his huge backhands down the line and forehands to the baseline should keep the young Spaniard on his heels. I see the Argentine’s relentless style persevering here against a tired Davidovich-Fokina. If this were an ATP 500 event where both guys were coming off a few days of rest, it’d be a different story, but ADF must be faded here.
Picks: Delbonis -140
Alex Zverev vs. Kei Nishikori
Start Time (approx.): 3:00 p.m. ET
I realize how this looks. Zverev has gone 12-3 on the clay this year with wins over Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini. He just went to the final of a Grand Slam last fall. He’s looked stunning in his last few matches. He has a 4-1 record against Nishikori.
I just don’t see this being so academic. The two have played three times on clay, with one going to Nishikori in three sets, one going to Zverev in three sets, then one, this year, going the way of Zverev in straight sets. That one happened to come in Madrid, where the altitude aids big servers like Zverev. It’s a reason why we see unlikely players make runs at that tournament like John Isner, and why Rafael Nadal struggles so mightily year after year despite dominating on every other court. It’s simply a different kind of clay court, and it’s not one I’m putting as much stock into as Rome and Monte Carlo.
Simply put, Nishikori has been a beast on the clay this year and comes into this one with pretty impressive form. The Japanese has had ample time to rest after his thrilling five-set win over Karen Khachanov in the second round thanks to Henri Laaksonen’s retirement in the third round. He should come out fresh, locked and loaded, and push Zverev a bit. He may even push him to the brink.
Picks: Over 33.5